The Bull returns from his voyage over seas to a market that is at epic lows, a world in which the Bears are convincing even the most staunch Bulls to become bears. The Bull looks around and he hears people crying about this stock market, crying about how companies that have no business going lower are dropping to 52 week lows, crying about how the bears are making money and how the "average guy" can't compete with the Wall Street gang of thieves, crying about how they have to put their money into CD's or even some Bulls who have started to invest in mutual funds. Do people believe mutual funds are any safer than just picking stocks out of a hat? Mutual funds are pre-dominantly made up of all stocks, and almost always on the long side, isn't this what people are trying to get away from?
Well, luckily the Bull lives in his own realm. The business trip was of the utmost success. The Bull looks at this market and thinks "God DAMN, how lucky I am to see these prices". The JR Bull(Tits and Ass or TA if you will) coined it best when he said "another down day over here in America, got to love it, these prices are at lows that we will only dream about in 6 months". That is what makes Tits and Ass the Junior Bull.
The Bull has read some recent criticisms from "competing"(I use that term loosely) and other blogs that attack the Bull.
1. "The Bull names himself the Bull yet makes picks that are rather bearish"
- The Bull is a self-described "Agnostic opportunist". The connotation of the word Bull in the kingdom of money is "making money, prosperous, and optimistic". That is why I call myself the Bull. The Bull makes bearish picks? You think the Bull made it to where he is today by claiming BUY BUY BUY is the way to go? The Bull is always Bullish, but to be a Bull you must punish companies that do a poor job of being Bullish. Therefore, when the Bull says buy PUTS on TMA, he is not doing it because he wants to be a bear, but he is doing it since bulls should not pay the price for this companies illogical leadership but rather reap the rewards of it. Call that bearish, I call it being an opportunist.
2. "How his idiotic readers cant seem to figure out the Bull has them buy his stocks and then he sells them and makes a lot of money while they lose money"
- The Bulls readers are mostly small time(money wise) investors. They have no ability to make stocks or options move. Also, my picks tend to go up over time, not just a one day boost. Simply irresponsible to make this argument against the Bull.
3. "Anyone who follows the Bull is playing with fire, you might Reap some early rewards but in the end you Reap what you sow and it wont be pretty........It is always smartest to get into Indexes or mutual funds, no risk and all reward".
- Enjoy your mutual funds which are on average down double digits this year, and the Bull will enjoy his millions.
4. "The Bull just throws out random picks, he doesn't explain why or explain investing basics"
- If you want a book on how to click a mouse button to buy a stock, I would suggest the masterpiece "I am a dumbfuck" written by The Bear. I guess I do pretty well for random picks.
5. Best one - "Does anyone really think this ***** kow shwat he is doing? Surely they don't, the guy is a BEEPING(censored) idiot.
- This is from a blog solely set up to go against my picks and to keep track of them. I see they stopped keeping track of my picks after three days and don't include options in any of the tallies. They also only now have a top 5 list of my worst stock picks(worst one is down 12% for the year).
Anyway, where does the Bull want people to be investing:
1. If you are not short in TMA after my suggesting of getting some puts in it, get some puts in it for tomorrow!!!
2. JRT, ICE, TITN - All picks from JR Bull's that I like. ICE is attractive at these prices and its recent pull back. It should be in the 160's at current valuation and if the NYSE ever decides to smart up it is a potential buyout opportunity. JRT is in its usual 3 month cycle of going from 8-12 dollars. The stock tried to move up on Friday but was brought down by the Bears. If we see a day in green this stock could fly about 7-10%. TITN is looking nice on its recent pullback. Enjoy, load up, dump, and over and over.
3. Penny stocks I love are FMT off of 31% drop, should be able to rebound some of that back. ATPL with a limit sell at 28 or 29 cents, try to get it to jump to 35 cents(up 5 cents). And my favorite Penny play is THN with a limit sell close to its current price.
4. Stock for a possible 3-5% gain on just tomorrow due to trading principles and the usual response: SCON, CREE, APOL, KELYA.
5. Citigroup (C) - At 20 bucks this stock is a freaking steal. Not saying its a great one day play but it will be back to 30 in time.
6. Earnings tomorrow: Always a risky game but if I had to play some it would be EVEP(energy), DDS(Dillards) - retail has been stomping earnings so far, FL(footlocker) - same as Dillards, and if you want to get aggressive and life life look at RDEA, ROHI, and HOV.
7. Option Plays: SPPI - Up huge in after hours because their first ever FDA drug has been approved. It deals with Bone Cancer, I think this stock should double in time and therefore look at May or June CALLS. I think the May 08 5.00 dollar strike price call on it for 10 cents is generous. This does mean the stock must double to be in the money but I feel this is a great play. A safer and maybe smarter play albeit does not offer same reward is the 2.50 Call for 55 cents per share.
BBI - Had a great quarter and the stock still drops, they continue to get better and will continue to gain market share. Another low priced long term play(long term for the Bull that is) I love the APRIL 08 call at 5.00 strike price for 5 cents per share, also like the 2.50 strike price for 60 cents per share that is already in the money(stock at 2.90) after hours.
Shorting: Continue to short Home builders, financials, commerical real estate, and of course XLB.
Couple finishing points:
1. Whisper Numbers were explained by someone in the comments pretty well. They are estimates for companies earnings that "insiders" use to pass around, now people "pass them" around online and average them out. They have proved to be 100% more accurate(meaning if estimate is 1 dollar, whispers and 50 cents and the actual is 0 cents, then the whispers beat it by 100%).
2. Tits and Ass had the line of the week, when someone was talking about Goldman Sachs(GS) he said this "Goldman? I could work at Goldman if I wanted to, they don't know how to make money, all they are is a bunch of salesman, that's it, nothing else, nothing more, salesmen!". How proud the Bull is.
THE BULL
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29 comments:
"Goldman? I could work at Goldman if I wanted to, they don't know how to make money, all they are is a bunch of salesman, that's it, nothing else, nothing more, salesmen!". How proud the Bull is.
This will have me laughing all week.
Great entry Bull. Nice to have you back stateside.
Where di you go?
Nice to have you back, I am playing BBI with you. Questionable earnings plays if you asked me
I saw in Barrons there is a push to limit irregular market hours? any chance this happens?
mad Money?
WTF is irregular hours, you mean extended hours? I think they should all be taken care of, its just an advantage to the wealthy and isniders
Bull,
I got to disagree on BIIB,look at their P?E and same store rentails, dont you think it belong in mid 2.50's?
Thanks for the Blog
I see Goldman is saying there might be a rate cut today, does anyone have any feelings on this?
Nice picks so far, are any of them up?
Bear,
I bought into all three penny stocks, up 20%, 10% and down 4% respectively. I am enjoying the day. I thinkt he Bull would say buy into TITN, ICE, JRT right now. not to mention they opened lower so i doubt everyone got in at highprices.
Its only an hour in, give the bull a break
Nice earnings call on HOV. Didnt have to do much to beat but they did beat. I am o playing all the afternoon earnings you called. I got a feeling you got inside info to whispers
BBI up 7% and options have not fucking moved!!! Bull what the fuck isgoing on, I trusted you one this one man!!!
TMA THANK YOU SO MUCH BULL!!!!!!!!!The 1.50 option now at 1.25 all the way from 5 fucking cents. 2,500!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!%%%%
Everyone lets be thankful for the picks instead of bashing, I will tkae 1% losers for 10% winenrs any day of hte wek.
Keep it up Bull. FUCK YOUR CRITICS
Bull,
Would you mind sharing any of these opposing blogs? I would love to read them and light them up for you.
Jill
It is now fifty years since Visa’s origins as a Bank of America credit card unit, and it hopes to celebrate with the largest IPO in U.S. history. The long-anticipated deal, slated for mid-March, is expected to raise between $15 and $19 billion, easily beating the previous record held by AT&T Wireless’s $11 billion offering in 2000. As the world’s #1 brand in credit and debit cards, with its 16,600 financial institution customers having issued over 1.5 billion cards, the company hopes to use the recent reorganization and the IPO as a way to streamline global strategy and drive margin expansion. The deal is being underwritten by a team of 41 banks led by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, and if it proves successful, it may be a welcome spark that can help revive the recently soft IPO market. The stock will trade under the ticker “V” on the NYSE.
Life takes Visa, Visa takes fees
Visa does not itself issue credit or debit cards and does not take on consumer credit risk. Rather, banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America issue its cards and it receives fees for its role in processing everyday transactions. Visa generates revenue both based on the number of transactions it processes and the dollar amount of purchases made on its credit and debit cards. Thus, although it is dependent on the level of consumer spending, it is not directly exposed to credit risk.
Paper or plastic?
Visa benefits from consumers’ continuing shift away from paper-based payment (cash and check) to electronic payment, predominantly credit and debit. Credit and debit have increased from 13% of payment volume in 2001 to 27% in 2006, and the company expects this trend to continue, especially as consumers have begun to use cards for everyday purchases such as gas and groceries in addition to larger-ticket items. Visa also benefits from international growth, especially in emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America, both because of the general increase in consumer spending in these regions and because of the relative infancy of credit and debit cards. With its 59% share of the global retail electronic payments market, Visa is well positioned to profit from these trends.
Same brand, new look
Until late last year, Visa consisted of several regional companies, each owned by its financial institution customers. As part of a mass reorganization, in October it combined these companies into one global entity (although its European operations remain independent because of regulation issues), which it believes will help it streamline its operations, focus on global strategy, and drive margin expansion through efficiencies of scale. The IPO will put 52% of the company’s shares in the hands of the public, marking a decisive move away from being customer-owned.
Legal paperwork
The credit card industry is a highly litigious one, and Visa currently faces tens of billions of dollars in claims. While the company has been structured so that the existing shareholders of the company bear all of the risk related to the major antitrust suit, thus protecting investors who buy on the IPO, there are several other potentially material lawsuits pending, that public shareholders are not protected from. Related to the litigation issue is the fact that changes in regulation could hurt Visa’s business. Other key risks to the Visa story are that Visa’s top five customers are 22% of revenue and that most of its customer relationships are non-exclusive, meaning its customers can also issue cards bearing MasterCard, American Express, or Discover brands. Finally, it faces the possibility of a recession severely hitting consumer spending, which would take a toll on its financial results.
Outlook
Visa appears to be coming to market at a sizeable discount to MasterCard based on forward P/E, which may be because the banks that are receiving most of the proceeds are strapped for cash and are pricing the deal to sell. MasterCard’s has shot up almost 400% since its May 2006 IPO, and its performance has certainly generated investor excitement about the Visa IPO. Although general market conditions have been weak since the beginning of the year amid fears of recession, and the IPO market in particular has been soft, and although the sheer size of the deal could limit a dramatic first day pop, Visa’s brand name status and attractive valuation should support a successful debut.
VISA ~
Thank for the information on VISA. I am trying to get in, got price target
I see it running with MA around 160 dollars. Up 200% from offering price
Bull,
Any thoughts on DNA coming into this March 14th meeting? Seems people think they will raise guidance which should boost the stock?
TMA JUST KEEPS GETTING BETTER BULL
bull and TA:
You both dont undrstand how financial stocks work. You both call bottoms on all thsse stocks but we are a far ways away, i realize in time they might be great piocks but what makes this blog great is that these pciks are not always for the long term. I love your other picks but dont touch finanicals, just makes you both look like idiots./
How bout APAC BULL? Its at 82 cents, buy in on run back to 110?
APAC will come back, always does...one green day and this baby is at 1.00
APAC is done, its going to zero
Anyone know when vISA ipo date is?
19th or 20th I believe
Bull,
You really fucked up today, 10/17 stock picks were down today and one was exactly even.
Of the ten that were down the average down amount was 5.443%!!!!! THAT IS TERIBLE BULL. Not only did you not pick winners, you picked huge loers
Short this market,
isnt that being a tad unfair? you dont count his SHORT of XLB in this. that was down 2.15%, shouldn that count
short this market,
one bad day and you're callin people out?? Why don't you post your bank account so we can judge you. You seem to have failed to put the TMA and PDLI options in, they're still rising.
J
Short this market,
You mention I got 10/17 picks "wrong" but fail to mention the market was down 150 or how well the other 6(1 as you said was dead even fared). Yes 10 of them did average a 5.443% loss but how did the 6 that went up do?
well +3.7, +2.33, +58.4, +2.79, +.4, +.55, all of those are %'s.
That means the 6 right averaged 11.36% UP. And when all 17 are taken together the average is .77% UP. Sure nothing to write home about but not as bad as you make it seem. Also you don't include any shorts or options.
Try to be a tad more fair next time.
The Bull
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