To my legion of fans,
The Bull has been running with the GODS the last few weeks. All of the texts, phone calls and emails did not reach the Bull in the heavens above but the Bull is back and ready to make this summer one to remember.
Market looks like it is back in epic trouble. Financials are getting hammered, the housing market is taking a turn for the worse yet again, gas continues to rise to record highs and the bears are declaring victory.
But the Bull is back and prepared for this perpetual battle with the bears.
The Bears say the Financials are dead and to short them. The Bull says GS is a buy before Tuesday mornings earnings and that Morgan Stanley is going to surprise. The Bears point to Lehman and Wachovia getting rid of their leadership as a sign of disastrous times, I see this as a way of getting rid of the bears and reloading the leadership with some Bulls.
The Bull loves the housing names out there today. The dollar is gaining and American is getting stronger. When America gets back on its feet after these terrible few months(and America Will RISE AGAIN) the housing market will go on a tear that sees houses being built as fast as Jesus rebuilt the Temple in three days.
The Bull continues to promote his two legendary horses JRCC and TITN. JRCC continues to go to new heights going from 3.50 to 49 dollars in a span of less than a year. Titan also continues to follow the rainbow to the pot of gold and will crush earnings yet again.
The Bull is back from the heavens and ready to make a run for the ages!
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
A day in the life of the Bull
Bulls,
Today was yet another magical day for the Bull. He held on only 8 American stocks to begin the day and only made 2 sells and 2 buys throughout the day. Here is what the day looked like.
The Bull held starting the day.
1. MA - Long time position of the Bull, feels it is the best of the breed and the best house on a good street you might say.
2. ARIA - As you all know, Bull likes this company and their cancer research.
3. C - As you all know again, Bull has many call options on it. Stock has been hit late for a myriad of reasons and the Bull feels a run back up is in order.
4. AMR - Bull's airline for merger talks.
5. GOLF - Look at yesterdays blog
6. JRCC - Look at yesterdays blog.
7. TITN - Loyal readers will know the Bull and all his comrades are high on this gem.
8. ESLR - Should have written about this one. It was clear ESLR or SOLF were going to get the huge contract as reported all over the web. The easy play was to long and short both with sells and covers of 2% move on both. ESLR got the contract.
The Bull then sold GOLF at 2.03 today after receiving word from the Junior Bull that DKS being 18.9% down was a buy. The Bull got lucky and waited until he saw some movement up and got in right as the stock crossed being 20% down. Came back to make the Bull some quick money.
The Junior Bull again struck when he informed the Bull that RCH was 15% down and poised for a short run back up. The BUll dug into his inventory(remember no great trader ever has all his money on the table) and bought RCH and got another quick 5% gain.
These two moves by the Junior BUll show that sometimes a great trader has to throw out the valuations and numbers of a stock and trade on the principles of being "over bought" and "oversold". Many times stocks that have terrible premarket news drop huge at the open but then come back. While they don't seem to come back because to many 26% down is the same as 31% down don't be fooled. There is great money to be made by doing nothing more than limiting the downside and having unlimited upside.
The Bull would love to write more but he has an early morning full of business.
God Bless,
The Bull
Today was yet another magical day for the Bull. He held on only 8 American stocks to begin the day and only made 2 sells and 2 buys throughout the day. Here is what the day looked like.
The Bull held starting the day.
1. MA - Long time position of the Bull, feels it is the best of the breed and the best house on a good street you might say.
2. ARIA - As you all know, Bull likes this company and their cancer research.
3. C - As you all know again, Bull has many call options on it. Stock has been hit late for a myriad of reasons and the Bull feels a run back up is in order.
4. AMR - Bull's airline for merger talks.
5. GOLF - Look at yesterdays blog
6. JRCC - Look at yesterdays blog.
7. TITN - Loyal readers will know the Bull and all his comrades are high on this gem.
8. ESLR - Should have written about this one. It was clear ESLR or SOLF were going to get the huge contract as reported all over the web. The easy play was to long and short both with sells and covers of 2% move on both. ESLR got the contract.
The Bull then sold GOLF at 2.03 today after receiving word from the Junior Bull that DKS being 18.9% down was a buy. The Bull got lucky and waited until he saw some movement up and got in right as the stock crossed being 20% down. Came back to make the Bull some quick money.
The Junior Bull again struck when he informed the Bull that RCH was 15% down and poised for a short run back up. The BUll dug into his inventory(remember no great trader ever has all his money on the table) and bought RCH and got another quick 5% gain.
These two moves by the Junior BUll show that sometimes a great trader has to throw out the valuations and numbers of a stock and trade on the principles of being "over bought" and "oversold". Many times stocks that have terrible premarket news drop huge at the open but then come back. While they don't seem to come back because to many 26% down is the same as 31% down don't be fooled. There is great money to be made by doing nothing more than limiting the downside and having unlimited upside.
The Bull would love to write more but he has an early morning full of business.
God Bless,
The Bull
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
A lesson the Bull learned
Even the Bull learns a lesson every now and then. The great theoriests of investing have always proclaimed that it is best to go against public setiment and rather go by the fundamentals and while there is no doubt that this strategy is the only intelligent and profitable one in the long term, it is of the utmost importance to realize that there is a large sum of money to be made by following public sentiment in the short term. What does the Bull mean?
JRCC - James River Coal Company is the number one stock on the major indexes this year. Coal is a hot commodity and almost all coal stocks are up large(60%+) but James River coal is up hundereds of percent. Why? Well the company seemed destined for bankruptcuy this summer and no one was doing business with them. Since no one was doing business with them much of their coal was not under contract. Now that coal is sky rocketing and coal is in need, JRCC is able to sell their coal for new contracts(since they had the most not under contract of any coal company) and there stock has sky rocketing every single time they point this fact out. Is JRCC to high? Of course it is, this company is hardly profitable and has huge debt. At best they are a 20 dollar stock but more likely about a 16 dollar stock. The Bull shorted the stock a couple weeks ago on earnings day and JRCC reported a huge loss and the Bull made a quick 8% but then the stock came back and actually finished up on the day and it has not looked back. Finally the Bull had enough and bought in at 31 dollars. Today the stock is trading above 36 dollars.
Investors like to invest in stocks they see having the potential to sky rocket up in the short term and JRCC seems to fit the bill. Who cares about the massive debt, continous loss of money on a yearly basis, that the stock went from 50 dollarsto 3.50. This is just like the tech boom, stocks being sold at values that make no sense but there were great amounts of money to be made in the tech boom and there is in JRCC and other stocks that people seem to see as invicible.
Where is oil going to stop?
Gas is approaching four dollars in most parts of the United States and the always bullish oil analysts at Goldman are calling for 141 oil by the end of the year. Thestreet.com has their first article as "Stocks for 200 dollar oil" and on CNBC people are claiming 160-180 oil is in the near future. These people are crazy, oil is up 100% in the last 12 months. This is not going to crash and go back down to 60 dollars a barrel but oil will see 100 before it sees 160. Oil is overpriced and more importantly there is now way that the United States government will allow OPEC to raise oil prices that high by cutting supply. Oil someday in our lives will be at 200then 300 dollars but not this year, not the next, not in 5 years.
To the commentor who said that "Fast money is bashing yahoo, options are not looking good for it".
- Would you take Ichan and Paulson or Macke and some other cronie on that show? Just yesterday CNBC had an article stating "option activity points to yahoo buyout". What a joke.
The bull's favorite golf store Golf Smith is down 26% today. This is a highly volatile stock. Could be a nice 5% kickback here. I would put a 2% sell on it as well.
Bull played his first round yesterday. Shot a 77 with hitting 12 greens but the wedges were not dialed in, the putts were not falling, only hit 6 fairways. Was playing a team match play best ball. The opposing team only fired an 88 and a 90 so my 77 would seem good considering my partner said "I usually shoot low to mid 80's" and then put up a 109!!! I could shoot a 109 with a PW the entire time.
The Bull
JRCC - James River Coal Company is the number one stock on the major indexes this year. Coal is a hot commodity and almost all coal stocks are up large(60%+) but James River coal is up hundereds of percent. Why? Well the company seemed destined for bankruptcuy this summer and no one was doing business with them. Since no one was doing business with them much of their coal was not under contract. Now that coal is sky rocketing and coal is in need, JRCC is able to sell their coal for new contracts(since they had the most not under contract of any coal company) and there stock has sky rocketing every single time they point this fact out. Is JRCC to high? Of course it is, this company is hardly profitable and has huge debt. At best they are a 20 dollar stock but more likely about a 16 dollar stock. The Bull shorted the stock a couple weeks ago on earnings day and JRCC reported a huge loss and the Bull made a quick 8% but then the stock came back and actually finished up on the day and it has not looked back. Finally the Bull had enough and bought in at 31 dollars. Today the stock is trading above 36 dollars.
Investors like to invest in stocks they see having the potential to sky rocket up in the short term and JRCC seems to fit the bill. Who cares about the massive debt, continous loss of money on a yearly basis, that the stock went from 50 dollarsto 3.50. This is just like the tech boom, stocks being sold at values that make no sense but there were great amounts of money to be made in the tech boom and there is in JRCC and other stocks that people seem to see as invicible.
Where is oil going to stop?
Gas is approaching four dollars in most parts of the United States and the always bullish oil analysts at Goldman are calling for 141 oil by the end of the year. Thestreet.com has their first article as "Stocks for 200 dollar oil" and on CNBC people are claiming 160-180 oil is in the near future. These people are crazy, oil is up 100% in the last 12 months. This is not going to crash and go back down to 60 dollars a barrel but oil will see 100 before it sees 160. Oil is overpriced and more importantly there is now way that the United States government will allow OPEC to raise oil prices that high by cutting supply. Oil someday in our lives will be at 200then 300 dollars but not this year, not the next, not in 5 years.
To the commentor who said that "Fast money is bashing yahoo, options are not looking good for it".
- Would you take Ichan and Paulson or Macke and some other cronie on that show? Just yesterday CNBC had an article stating "option activity points to yahoo buyout". What a joke.
The bull's favorite golf store Golf Smith is down 26% today. This is a highly volatile stock. Could be a nice 5% kickback here. I would put a 2% sell on it as well.
Bull played his first round yesterday. Shot a 77 with hitting 12 greens but the wedges were not dialed in, the putts were not falling, only hit 6 fairways. Was playing a team match play best ball. The opposing team only fired an 88 and a 90 so my 77 would seem good considering my partner said "I usually shoot low to mid 80's" and then put up a 109!!! I could shoot a 109 with a PW the entire time.
The Bull
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Three Major Items
Bulls,
Three huge items the Bull must talk about.
1. Yahoo
- As many of the Bull's loyal readers know the Bull is not a fan of Yahoo in any sort of way so the Bull's following comment might be a shocker. The Bull thinks Yahoo is a buy! Now Yahoo is not going to have another 72% jump like it did after MSFT announced plans to buy but if yahoo can secure a 33 dollar sell price then you will see an impressive 18-19% jump in the stock.
Why is the Bull so bullish all of sudden. The Bull believes in following the "whales" and outside of Buffet, Ichan may be the biggest in the game. Now what Ichan specializes in is hostile takeovers and proxy fights. Exactly what he is getting involved with here.
This yahoo board has been in place in four years. During that time the nasdaq is up 30% and Google 440% but yahoo has been flat. This is unacceptable and Ichan has put his own slate of board members up for election. The meeting is July 3rd and the Bull might be in attendence just to see the fireworks.
Within Ichan's ten prospective candidates for the board are some interesting names. Marc Cuban who sold broadcast.com for 5 billion dollars to yahoo, and therefore knows how this yahoo board likes to negotiate. Adam Dell, the brother of Michael Dell, and Lucian Bebchuck who is one of the most respected figures in the academic world in terms of mergers.
But there is one other key ingredient besides Ichan and his 59 million shares and 10 million call options. John Paulson who runs the hedge fund Paulson and Company, made billions this past year by betting against the market due to predicting the subprime mess. He made 3.7 billion dollars personally and was the top earner of any hedge fund mangers(BRK is not a hedge fund and therefore Buffet does not count). Well turns out according to SEC reports that Mr. Paulson himself has acquired a 3.7% stake in yahoo by owning around 50 million shares and he too is demanding change.
Who would not want to go into the trenches with these two giants?
2. 5,000 Cancer Drug Reports Released tonight at 9 PM ET time.
- The American Society of Clinical Oncology every year releases their findings on different cancer drugs. They hold a conference towards the end of May each year where the discuss the blockbuster names of the bio-tech world and their findings. In years past, the ASCO would release their findings to around 25,000 doctors and reporters a few weeks before the conference and then the hawks on Wallstreet would begin paying these doctors substantial amounts of money in exchange for the ASCO results before they were officially released.
As a result, this year the ASCO is releasing almost 5,000 detailed reports on different cancer drugs all at the same time to anyone who has a computer. Log onto asco.org at 9 a clock eastern and the reports will be there for all to see. Now there are a few blockbuster names that they are keeping in store until the conference but the results tonight will shake the Biotech world for the rest of the month.
All the big names such as DNA, PFE, LLY, CELG, ONXX and OSIP will be affected. Personally I am watching for some movement in ARIA and and BMY.
It is hard to predict what will happen and people will be up all night trying to figure out how these findings should affect the stocks. I think the safest bet is to long straddle the volatile cancer related bio-tech stocks.
If you see any huge announcements(IMCL last year) plastered on CNBC, I would do my best to get in pre-market or as early as you can. Also look for a huge drop and maybe try to catch a big comeback play.
3. The Intelligent Investor
- Easily the greatest book ever written on the principles of investing. If you have not read this book, rush down to your nearest barnes and noble and pick it up. I recommend the newer version with commentary from Jason Zweig. I will comment on the book as a whole another day but the book is written by the famed financial mind Benjamin Graham who was the mentor to a young Warren Buffet.
This book will change your life and the way you approach the market.
The Bull is off to play a round of golf.
The Bull
Three huge items the Bull must talk about.
1. Yahoo
- As many of the Bull's loyal readers know the Bull is not a fan of Yahoo in any sort of way so the Bull's following comment might be a shocker. The Bull thinks Yahoo is a buy! Now Yahoo is not going to have another 72% jump like it did after MSFT announced plans to buy but if yahoo can secure a 33 dollar sell price then you will see an impressive 18-19% jump in the stock.
Why is the Bull so bullish all of sudden. The Bull believes in following the "whales" and outside of Buffet, Ichan may be the biggest in the game. Now what Ichan specializes in is hostile takeovers and proxy fights. Exactly what he is getting involved with here.
This yahoo board has been in place in four years. During that time the nasdaq is up 30% and Google 440% but yahoo has been flat. This is unacceptable and Ichan has put his own slate of board members up for election. The meeting is July 3rd and the Bull might be in attendence just to see the fireworks.
Within Ichan's ten prospective candidates for the board are some interesting names. Marc Cuban who sold broadcast.com for 5 billion dollars to yahoo, and therefore knows how this yahoo board likes to negotiate. Adam Dell, the brother of Michael Dell, and Lucian Bebchuck who is one of the most respected figures in the academic world in terms of mergers.
But there is one other key ingredient besides Ichan and his 59 million shares and 10 million call options. John Paulson who runs the hedge fund Paulson and Company, made billions this past year by betting against the market due to predicting the subprime mess. He made 3.7 billion dollars personally and was the top earner of any hedge fund mangers(BRK is not a hedge fund and therefore Buffet does not count). Well turns out according to SEC reports that Mr. Paulson himself has acquired a 3.7% stake in yahoo by owning around 50 million shares and he too is demanding change.
Who would not want to go into the trenches with these two giants?
2. 5,000 Cancer Drug Reports Released tonight at 9 PM ET time.
- The American Society of Clinical Oncology every year releases their findings on different cancer drugs. They hold a conference towards the end of May each year where the discuss the blockbuster names of the bio-tech world and their findings. In years past, the ASCO would release their findings to around 25,000 doctors and reporters a few weeks before the conference and then the hawks on Wallstreet would begin paying these doctors substantial amounts of money in exchange for the ASCO results before they were officially released.
As a result, this year the ASCO is releasing almost 5,000 detailed reports on different cancer drugs all at the same time to anyone who has a computer. Log onto asco.org at 9 a clock eastern and the reports will be there for all to see. Now there are a few blockbuster names that they are keeping in store until the conference but the results tonight will shake the Biotech world for the rest of the month.
All the big names such as DNA, PFE, LLY, CELG, ONXX and OSIP will be affected. Personally I am watching for some movement in ARIA and and BMY.
It is hard to predict what will happen and people will be up all night trying to figure out how these findings should affect the stocks. I think the safest bet is to long straddle the volatile cancer related bio-tech stocks.
If you see any huge announcements(IMCL last year) plastered on CNBC, I would do my best to get in pre-market or as early as you can. Also look for a huge drop and maybe try to catch a big comeback play.
3. The Intelligent Investor
- Easily the greatest book ever written on the principles of investing. If you have not read this book, rush down to your nearest barnes and noble and pick it up. I recommend the newer version with commentary from Jason Zweig. I will comment on the book as a whole another day but the book is written by the famed financial mind Benjamin Graham who was the mentor to a young Warren Buffet.
This book will change your life and the way you approach the market.
The Bull is off to play a round of golf.
The Bull
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The BULL is Alive and Well
Bulls,
I deeply apologize for my lack of posting for this month of may. I will make it up to all of you in the next two weeks I promise.
Sadly as I type right now I am on a plane heading south and write this from the runway on the blackberry.
Someone asked a great question in the comments. How do you pick a stock to buy and what do you look for?
This is a great question and an adequate answer would take more time than I have.
How the Bull usually finds stocks is he first looks for a sector he wants to invest in and then I do my homework on each company and pick the best company or maybe more than one if I am really bullish on the sector. So for instance if railroads I would look at all the rail stocks and end up with BNI and CSX and would then use this loose formula.
Tomorrow I will share the Bull's basic strategy and use a company of the readers choice for example.
Also, the Bull's life story is a long one but he will share his humble beginnings sometime this week.
The Bull is back and the Bull is ready to run.
I deeply apologize for my lack of posting for this month of may. I will make it up to all of you in the next two weeks I promise.
Sadly as I type right now I am on a plane heading south and write this from the runway on the blackberry.
Someone asked a great question in the comments. How do you pick a stock to buy and what do you look for?
This is a great question and an adequate answer would take more time than I have.
How the Bull usually finds stocks is he first looks for a sector he wants to invest in and then I do my homework on each company and pick the best company or maybe more than one if I am really bullish on the sector. So for instance if railroads I would look at all the rail stocks and end up with BNI and CSX and would then use this loose formula.
Tomorrow I will share the Bull's basic strategy and use a company of the readers choice for example.
Also, the Bull's life story is a long one but he will share his humble beginnings sometime this week.
The Bull is back and the Bull is ready to run.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Quite a day for the Junior Bull
Greetings,
The JR Bull had one of his finest days and has moved to where no one thought he could go.
The JR BULL is covering both his shorts(buying shares and giving back to net profit) so here are results of today.
1. JDSU = 175 shares x 2.40 dollars = 420 dollars.
2. RTWW = 4,500 shares x 1.76 = 7,920 dollars.
Profit of = 8340.
Transaction costs: 8 dollars.
Net Profit = 8,332 dollars.
Net Worth outside of profit today = 11,391.95 dollars.
Total Net Worth current: 19,731.95 dollars.
The JR BULL has been a very busy man this week but made time for these four picks for the portfolio.
1. POT - 183.15 dollars for 25 shares.
2. MON - 113.50 for 40 shares.
3. MOS - 122.17 for 37 shares
4. AGU - 78.20 for 58 shares.
The Bull himself will be in Omaha for the Woodstock of capitalism. Watch AXP tomorrow.
The BULL
The JR Bull had one of his finest days and has moved to where no one thought he could go.
The JR BULL is covering both his shorts(buying shares and giving back to net profit) so here are results of today.
1. JDSU = 175 shares x 2.40 dollars = 420 dollars.
2. RTWW = 4,500 shares x 1.76 = 7,920 dollars.
Profit of = 8340.
Transaction costs: 8 dollars.
Net Profit = 8,332 dollars.
Net Worth outside of profit today = 11,391.95 dollars.
Total Net Worth current: 19,731.95 dollars.
The JR BULL has been a very busy man this week but made time for these four picks for the portfolio.
1. POT - 183.15 dollars for 25 shares.
2. MON - 113.50 for 40 shares.
3. MOS - 122.17 for 37 shares
4. AGU - 78.20 for 58 shares.
The Bull himself will be in Omaha for the Woodstock of capitalism. Watch AXP tomorrow.
The BULL
Two Big Moves by Junior Bull
Bulls,
The Junior Bull's portfolio did not perform up to his usual standards but luckily his option did gain 42.5% so it made up for the other pathetic performances.
The Junior Bull has 11,951.95 dollars but the cost of the transactions are 20 dollars to sell so he is then worth 11,931.95 dollars.
Today he has two plays. BOTH SHORTS
1. RTWW - This stock jumped up huge yesterday and there is NO SHOT this stock stays up to par and lasts at 2 dollars or jumps higher. The JR BULL is going short 4,500 shares(9,000 dollars), and a cover price of 2.20 if all hell breaks loose.
2. JDSU - 14.31 per shares, the Bull thinks they blow it today so lets short it for 175 shares.
Costs of transactions 8 dollars.
Cash: 412.5 dollars
The Junior Bull's portfolio did not perform up to his usual standards but luckily his option did gain 42.5% so it made up for the other pathetic performances.
The Junior Bull has 11,951.95 dollars but the cost of the transactions are 20 dollars to sell so he is then worth 11,931.95 dollars.
Today he has two plays. BOTH SHORTS
1. RTWW - This stock jumped up huge yesterday and there is NO SHOT this stock stays up to par and lasts at 2 dollars or jumps higher. The JR BULL is going short 4,500 shares(9,000 dollars), and a cover price of 2.20 if all hell breaks loose.
2. JDSU - 14.31 per shares, the Bull thinks they blow it today so lets short it for 175 shares.
Costs of transactions 8 dollars.
Cash: 412.5 dollars
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The Bull's Take
Bulls,
CNBC is taking it upon themselves to label today as the "biggest day in regards to the economy in the history of the united states". Personally the Bull sees GDP beating the .5% increase that is predicted but these numbers are so manipulated(yes GDP can be manipulated in a myriad of ways) that I am not paying to much attention to it besides to see how it will effect the opening of the market. In the afternoon the Fed WILL cut by 25 basis points and lets pray it is the end of these silly cuts.
Few things I am seeing in the market:
1. Dollar is starting to make a come back(3 week highs) which means the commodities are going down and will continue to drop if the dollar continues to rise. If the FED shocks the Bull and does not cut then the dollar SHOULD rise which means be short in all the ETF's dealing with commodities the next few days if the Fed does NOT cut.
2. AG is taking a hit and there is nothing the Bulls can do about it. When any sector is jumping from 20-80% up on its biggest stocks there is going to have to be a pullback somewhere. But the Bull remains very Bullish on AG and would be playing them tomorrow with TIGHT stop losses on them. Limit the downside and enjoy the upside. Also, POT today dropped to 180 and the Bull thinks its a buy with a tight stop loss. It dropped since the "star analyst" on the stock said he felt it should pullback BUT THEN IT SHOULD GO TO 300 by year end. Get in this baby when you feel it is done going down. It still has a lot of upside.
3. Secondary offerings are killing some of the Bull's favorite stocks. TITN decided to raise itself some capital and offer 3.5 million dollars worth of shares to the public and Citi today announced raising capital of up to 3 billion dollars. As a shareholder you want companies BUYING stock, not selling stock.
4. The IPO market seems to be coming back to life. V and IPI are both up over 50% from their initial offerings and next weeks pipeline of IPO's led by Colfax(oil company) have the Bull ready to make some money.
5. Financials just can't seem to get any sort of momentum. Just when they start heading up there is one or two of their peers that bring the group down as a whole(look at ETF XLF for Financial performance). The Bull stands by Citigroup even with this attempt to raise capital, and still loves WFC, JPM and GS.
What does the Bull like for today?
Penny stocks:
1. VTDI - over 14 million shares traded today and I think it has hit its bottom. Of course I would have a stop loss(15 cents if I was trading it) and see if I could not catch a quick bounch back tomorrow. Be careful with any penny stock.
2. HDUP - Another huge volume stock that I would have loved to pick up at 5 cents instead of 8. I think it can bounce back tomorrow but if you want to be careful maybe look for the stock to drop to .05 before getting in.
Options:
1. Call the Bull nuts but he thinks the June 08 call with strike price at 30 dollars on GIL could be a good find. Yes they lowered guidance but for 35 cents an option it could be a good risky move. Do not buy the 25 dollar strike price call.
Earnings:
1. I think GM could surprise people just like Ford did and make a 5-10% jump.
The Junior Bull's transactions:
1. 588 shares of KOG at 3.40
2. 17 shares of POT at 179.29
3. 100 shares of TITN at 20.15
4. 372 shares of TSCM at 8.05
5. 35 cent call options June 08 on GIL at strike price of 30 dollars. Jr Bull bought 43 contracts.
Total worth of all these securities is 11,561.73.
Costs: All the stock trades were still free. Option cost was 26 dollars.
Cash in bank: 12.27 dollars.
The Bull
CNBC is taking it upon themselves to label today as the "biggest day in regards to the economy in the history of the united states". Personally the Bull sees GDP beating the .5% increase that is predicted but these numbers are so manipulated(yes GDP can be manipulated in a myriad of ways) that I am not paying to much attention to it besides to see how it will effect the opening of the market. In the afternoon the Fed WILL cut by 25 basis points and lets pray it is the end of these silly cuts.
Few things I am seeing in the market:
1. Dollar is starting to make a come back(3 week highs) which means the commodities are going down and will continue to drop if the dollar continues to rise. If the FED shocks the Bull and does not cut then the dollar SHOULD rise which means be short in all the ETF's dealing with commodities the next few days if the Fed does NOT cut.
2. AG is taking a hit and there is nothing the Bulls can do about it. When any sector is jumping from 20-80% up on its biggest stocks there is going to have to be a pullback somewhere. But the Bull remains very Bullish on AG and would be playing them tomorrow with TIGHT stop losses on them. Limit the downside and enjoy the upside. Also, POT today dropped to 180 and the Bull thinks its a buy with a tight stop loss. It dropped since the "star analyst" on the stock said he felt it should pullback BUT THEN IT SHOULD GO TO 300 by year end. Get in this baby when you feel it is done going down. It still has a lot of upside.
3. Secondary offerings are killing some of the Bull's favorite stocks. TITN decided to raise itself some capital and offer 3.5 million dollars worth of shares to the public and Citi today announced raising capital of up to 3 billion dollars. As a shareholder you want companies BUYING stock, not selling stock.
4. The IPO market seems to be coming back to life. V and IPI are both up over 50% from their initial offerings and next weeks pipeline of IPO's led by Colfax(oil company) have the Bull ready to make some money.
5. Financials just can't seem to get any sort of momentum. Just when they start heading up there is one or two of their peers that bring the group down as a whole(look at ETF XLF for Financial performance). The Bull stands by Citigroup even with this attempt to raise capital, and still loves WFC, JPM and GS.
What does the Bull like for today?
Penny stocks:
1. VTDI - over 14 million shares traded today and I think it has hit its bottom. Of course I would have a stop loss(15 cents if I was trading it) and see if I could not catch a quick bounch back tomorrow. Be careful with any penny stock.
2. HDUP - Another huge volume stock that I would have loved to pick up at 5 cents instead of 8. I think it can bounce back tomorrow but if you want to be careful maybe look for the stock to drop to .05 before getting in.
Options:
1. Call the Bull nuts but he thinks the June 08 call with strike price at 30 dollars on GIL could be a good find. Yes they lowered guidance but for 35 cents an option it could be a good risky move. Do not buy the 25 dollar strike price call.
Earnings:
1. I think GM could surprise people just like Ford did and make a 5-10% jump.
The Junior Bull's transactions:
1. 588 shares of KOG at 3.40
2. 17 shares of POT at 179.29
3. 100 shares of TITN at 20.15
4. 372 shares of TSCM at 8.05
5. 35 cent call options June 08 on GIL at strike price of 30 dollars. Jr Bull bought 43 contracts.
Total worth of all these securities is 11,561.73.
Costs: All the stock trades were still free. Option cost was 26 dollars.
Cash in bank: 12.27 dollars.
The Bull
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
JR Bull transaction
JR BULL just sent the Bull a text reporting that as of this minute he is selling his entire stake in MA at the price of 277.64 dollars.
The JR Bull owned 42 shares that are now worth 11600.88 dollars.
This was the JR BULL's 4th trade and therefore no transaction costs yet.
The JR BULL has assured me that he will have some stock picks and option picks later tonight as will I.
The JR Bull owned 42 shares that are now worth 11600.88 dollars.
This was the JR BULL's 4th trade and therefore no transaction costs yet.
The JR BULL has assured me that he will have some stock picks and option picks later tonight as will I.
JR BULL UPDATE
Greetings this beautiful morning.
The JR BULL has 10188.50 dollars in his account and has decided to go ALL IN on Mastercard pre-market.
MA is selling at 242.50 right now before its release in 15 minutes. The Junior Bull bought 42 shares(we round to nearest share, this time that would be down to 42) and was able to purchase for no transaction cost(7 more free trades this month).
I will update later today if the JR BULL makes any moves. Don't worry they will be posted here before the moves are even made to avoid any sort of "cheating".
I also am a huge fan of MA. Get in Get Rich.
BULL
The JR BULL has 10188.50 dollars in his account and has decided to go ALL IN on Mastercard pre-market.
MA is selling at 242.50 right now before its release in 15 minutes. The Junior Bull bought 42 shares(we round to nearest share, this time that would be down to 42) and was able to purchase for no transaction cost(7 more free trades this month).
I will update later today if the JR BULL makes any moves. Don't worry they will be posted here before the moves are even made to avoid any sort of "cheating".
I also am a huge fan of MA. Get in Get Rich.
BULL
Monday, April 28, 2008
News on the Bull and JR Bull
Greetings,
The Bull was up a lousy 5.5% today off of TITN, MTW, BRKA, TTWO, V, and MA. Not the Bull's best day by a long shot.
The Bull has been missing in action and will continue to only be able to post once or twice a week due to outside forces.
The Bull and the JR Bull had a sit down fireside chat this past friday night in which the Jr Bull made this bold claim. "I don't get it Bull, I just don't get it. I could EASILY turn 10k into 20k within 30 trading days. Thats only 3.3% a day for Christ sakes How can't anyone do it. I'll show them how it is done". With that being said the JR Bull set up a 10k fund that he was going to use on this blog to see if he can back up his bold claim.
Today was day 1 and the JR BULL only owned one stock. TITN
The Junior Bull bought 10,000 dollars worth(he is using zecco and receives 10 free trades) so he received 497 shares of TITN. Those shares are now worth(since he held them into earnings) 10188.50 dollars.
I will keep all updated on any changes the JR Bull makes.
I hope to have some picks later tonight for all.
The Bull
The Bull was up a lousy 5.5% today off of TITN, MTW, BRKA, TTWO, V, and MA. Not the Bull's best day by a long shot.
The Bull has been missing in action and will continue to only be able to post once or twice a week due to outside forces.
The Bull and the JR Bull had a sit down fireside chat this past friday night in which the Jr Bull made this bold claim. "I don't get it Bull, I just don't get it. I could EASILY turn 10k into 20k within 30 trading days. Thats only 3.3% a day for Christ sakes How can't anyone do it. I'll show them how it is done". With that being said the JR Bull set up a 10k fund that he was going to use on this blog to see if he can back up his bold claim.
Today was day 1 and the JR BULL only owned one stock. TITN
The Junior Bull bought 10,000 dollars worth(he is using zecco and receives 10 free trades) so he received 497 shares of TITN. Those shares are now worth(since he held them into earnings) 10188.50 dollars.
I will keep all updated on any changes the JR Bull makes.
I hope to have some picks later tonight for all.
The Bull
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Time to give back
Bulls,
I would never want to talk about anything outside of stocks on this blog unless it was of the utmost importance. Seeing that this blog now demands over 12 million hits a week I cannot help but think that this blog cannot only be used to further a message of prosperity but also a message of giving back. Don't worry this is a once in a blue moon entry but it is extremely important.
I am surmising that the majority of the readers of this blog are not poor, uneducated people who cannot afford to give back some of their money in life and I am sure most of you give back your fair share.
I can't help myself but to point out a few charities that I feel deserve your fullest attention.
http://www.nothingbutnets.net/
http://www.netsforlifeafrica.org/
I realize that Malaria seems like a foreign term in the United States but this disease is infected in 300-550 million people every single year and it kills between 1-3 million people. While that may seem like a low death rate compared to the people infected, it should be noted that 75% of the people who do die from this disease are under the age of 5 years old. 3,000 children die every single day in just Sub-Saharan Africa alone. What can be done to stop this? While I certainly advocate giving money to vaccines and research I must also point out that just buying a net for 10 dollars( that includes cost to ship and everything total) will shelter four people every single night from this deadly disease.
The nets typically sell for between 2-3 dollars from the United Nations but you can donate to these two sites above and they will buy all the nets, ship them to Africa and get them set up with families so lives can be saved. For just 10 dollars you can save a life. I am sure(or hoping) that no one would walk by a dying child on the street and not help, but just because you cannot physically see the dying child does not mean doing nothing is any less unethical.
2. http://www.endhomelessness.org/
- I realize the majority of people see homelessness as baggers on the street looking for their next shot of vodka but this is nothing but an allusion that people create in their minds to make it easier to help forget about what homelessness really is. 30-40% of homeless people are veterans who fought to protect this country so that the rest of us could go on with our lives trying to "live the American dream". About 1,500,000 children are homeless tonight on the streets of America and 43% of them are under the age of 6. While I am sure many are fast to blame poverty on the person, how can you blame a 5 year old child for his parents actions?
What frustrates the Bull more than anything is how so many people feel they are so much better than the homeless bagger on the street. The Bull would probably be considered in the top 99.999% of successful people in terms of how America judges success but this has more to do with the opportunities that were given to the Bull then it does with the Bull himself. The Bull grew up in a two parent home, was given every opportunity he could ever dream of, was able to go to college anywhere he wanted, able to obtain the top notch education he needed, able to travel the world, given the opportunity to have some of the best jobs any college student could dream of and due to a large part to all those experiences was able to make millions of dollars by the time he graduated from college. But the Bull would have NEVER been as successful had he grown up in a impoverished family. Had the Bull grown up on the streets he most likely would have never graduated from highschool, never mind going to college. I have heard so many times friends and family of the Bull tell each other "how sick they are of hearing about homeless people, they are to lazy". These friends and family lack any sort of perspective outside of their own self built make believe fantasy world in which they are of more intelligence, drive and ability than everyone who is below them in terms of money. Don't be one of these people.
Some people think homelessness cannot be cured and that it is a cause of Capitalism. Take it from someone who knows money and capitalism better than almost anyone out there. Homelessness is the effect of ignorance and nature, not of some economic system. Minneapolis- Saint Paul has cut down homelessness by 43% between 2002-2006, NYC has cut it down 33% in the same time period and San Fransisco by 65% in those 4 years. Those are some of the most prosperous(NYC and San Fran 1 and 2 in the country) and yet they have overcome the "evils of capitalism and greed" by realizing that homelessness is a problem and that it can be fixed.
3. http://www.actionagainsthunger.org/
Starvation kills over 35,000 people every single day. That means it kills 10 times what the 9/11 terrorist attacks killed in a single day. I once had a famous Biology teacher(won a noble peace prize in the field of nutrition) who always told me that there is not a single reason that any one on earth should ever die of lack of resources for the next 5,000 years. He made the bold claim that not a single person died of starvation in the United States unless they went out of their way to make sure they did not eat and he gave lecture after lecture about how easy it would be to feed the world until humans reached their carrying capacity(9.9 billion in his opinion). Should 35,000 people be dying a day because they cannot get the resources to survive? You can feed a family of 4 by just paying 5 dollars a day to this website.
4. http://www.redcross.org/
The granddaddy of them all. The Red Cross is involved in almost every line of charity(poverty, sickness, homelessness, ect). If you want to help the world become a better place and not focus on just one cause then the Red Cross is for you.
Since I know this is long I will just link the other charities I am involved with.
5. http://www.bbbs.org/site/c.diJKKYPLJvH/b.1539751/k.BDB6/Home.htm
6. http://www.conservationfund.org/
7. http://www.arcrelief.org/site/PageServer
8. http://www.imcworldwide.org/
9. http://www.fallenheroesfund.org/fallenheroes/index.php
10. http://www.secondharvest.org/
I would never want to talk about anything outside of stocks on this blog unless it was of the utmost importance. Seeing that this blog now demands over 12 million hits a week I cannot help but think that this blog cannot only be used to further a message of prosperity but also a message of giving back. Don't worry this is a once in a blue moon entry but it is extremely important.
I am surmising that the majority of the readers of this blog are not poor, uneducated people who cannot afford to give back some of their money in life and I am sure most of you give back your fair share.
I can't help myself but to point out a few charities that I feel deserve your fullest attention.
http://www.nothingbutnets.net/
http://www.netsforlifeafrica.org/
I realize that Malaria seems like a foreign term in the United States but this disease is infected in 300-550 million people every single year and it kills between 1-3 million people. While that may seem like a low death rate compared to the people infected, it should be noted that 75% of the people who do die from this disease are under the age of 5 years old. 3,000 children die every single day in just Sub-Saharan Africa alone. What can be done to stop this? While I certainly advocate giving money to vaccines and research I must also point out that just buying a net for 10 dollars( that includes cost to ship and everything total) will shelter four people every single night from this deadly disease.
The nets typically sell for between 2-3 dollars from the United Nations but you can donate to these two sites above and they will buy all the nets, ship them to Africa and get them set up with families so lives can be saved. For just 10 dollars you can save a life. I am sure(or hoping) that no one would walk by a dying child on the street and not help, but just because you cannot physically see the dying child does not mean doing nothing is any less unethical.
2. http://www.endhomelessness.org/
- I realize the majority of people see homelessness as baggers on the street looking for their next shot of vodka but this is nothing but an allusion that people create in their minds to make it easier to help forget about what homelessness really is. 30-40% of homeless people are veterans who fought to protect this country so that the rest of us could go on with our lives trying to "live the American dream". About 1,500,000 children are homeless tonight on the streets of America and 43% of them are under the age of 6. While I am sure many are fast to blame poverty on the person, how can you blame a 5 year old child for his parents actions?
What frustrates the Bull more than anything is how so many people feel they are so much better than the homeless bagger on the street. The Bull would probably be considered in the top 99.999% of successful people in terms of how America judges success but this has more to do with the opportunities that were given to the Bull then it does with the Bull himself. The Bull grew up in a two parent home, was given every opportunity he could ever dream of, was able to go to college anywhere he wanted, able to obtain the top notch education he needed, able to travel the world, given the opportunity to have some of the best jobs any college student could dream of and due to a large part to all those experiences was able to make millions of dollars by the time he graduated from college. But the Bull would have NEVER been as successful had he grown up in a impoverished family. Had the Bull grown up on the streets he most likely would have never graduated from highschool, never mind going to college. I have heard so many times friends and family of the Bull tell each other "how sick they are of hearing about homeless people, they are to lazy". These friends and family lack any sort of perspective outside of their own self built make believe fantasy world in which they are of more intelligence, drive and ability than everyone who is below them in terms of money. Don't be one of these people.
Some people think homelessness cannot be cured and that it is a cause of Capitalism. Take it from someone who knows money and capitalism better than almost anyone out there. Homelessness is the effect of ignorance and nature, not of some economic system. Minneapolis- Saint Paul has cut down homelessness by 43% between 2002-2006, NYC has cut it down 33% in the same time period and San Fransisco by 65% in those 4 years. Those are some of the most prosperous(NYC and San Fran 1 and 2 in the country) and yet they have overcome the "evils of capitalism and greed" by realizing that homelessness is a problem and that it can be fixed.
3. http://www.actionagainsthunger.org/
Starvation kills over 35,000 people every single day. That means it kills 10 times what the 9/11 terrorist attacks killed in a single day. I once had a famous Biology teacher(won a noble peace prize in the field of nutrition) who always told me that there is not a single reason that any one on earth should ever die of lack of resources for the next 5,000 years. He made the bold claim that not a single person died of starvation in the United States unless they went out of their way to make sure they did not eat and he gave lecture after lecture about how easy it would be to feed the world until humans reached their carrying capacity(9.9 billion in his opinion). Should 35,000 people be dying a day because they cannot get the resources to survive? You can feed a family of 4 by just paying 5 dollars a day to this website.
4. http://www.redcross.org/
The granddaddy of them all. The Red Cross is involved in almost every line of charity(poverty, sickness, homelessness, ect). If you want to help the world become a better place and not focus on just one cause then the Red Cross is for you.
Since I know this is long I will just link the other charities I am involved with.
5. http://www.bbbs.org/site/c.diJKKYPLJvH/b.1539751/k.BDB6/Home.htm
6. http://www.conservationfund.org/
7. http://www.arcrelief.org/site/PageServer
8. http://www.imcworldwide.org/
9. http://www.fallenheroesfund.org/fallenheroes/index.php
10. http://www.secondharvest.org/
Monday, April 21, 2008
To Advance or not to Advance?
It has been a glorious and successful three months for the Bull and his disciples. We have taken 5k and turned it into a million. We have taken earnings and predicted them at a 98% rate but the most impressive success of all is that finally we have taken a bear market at 11,600 level and turned it into a Bull's market by pushing the market towards 13,000 and we are just getting started.
I believe we have taken the novice investor and turned him into a millionaire but I feel it is time to take this blog to the next level. I have always planned for a four part year divided between the four quarters. First we would do novice trading techniques then intermediate, then advanced then some secrets of the trade. Do people feel its time to jump to the next level. What do people want the next level to entail? The Bull is the people's champ and nothing without them, let the people speak.
The Bull
I believe we have taken the novice investor and turned him into a millionaire but I feel it is time to take this blog to the next level. I have always planned for a four part year divided between the four quarters. First we would do novice trading techniques then intermediate, then advanced then some secrets of the trade. Do people feel its time to jump to the next level. What do people want the next level to entail? The Bull is the people's champ and nothing without them, let the people speak.
The Bull
Thursday, April 17, 2008
The Bull's mighty week
To my legion of fans.
I prefer to review my earning selections for the day but since I hit all 15 you can just go back and look. That makes it 29/30 in a game that is "impossible".
Tomorrow we only have three stocks sadly.
1. HON - Weak dollar, healthy exchange rates, booming business in emerging markets should give HON a nice beat tomorrow.
2. CAT - Just read HON.
3. C - Here is an interesting play, they are going to have some bad news but I love them like I do WFC and JPM so lets go with a beat.
In the end tomorrow will be a huge day(short of Citi saying their going bankrupt). GOOG was not priced in to beat this big(look at after hours) and this will be felt by the market as a whole tomorrow. Enjoy another big day Bulls.
The Bull(hitting at 97%)
I prefer to review my earning selections for the day but since I hit all 15 you can just go back and look. That makes it 29/30 in a game that is "impossible".
Tomorrow we only have three stocks sadly.
1. HON - Weak dollar, healthy exchange rates, booming business in emerging markets should give HON a nice beat tomorrow.
2. CAT - Just read HON.
3. C - Here is an interesting play, they are going to have some bad news but I love them like I do WFC and JPM so lets go with a beat.
In the end tomorrow will be a huge day(short of Citi saying their going bankrupt). GOOG was not priced in to beat this big(look at after hours) and this will be felt by the market as a whole tomorrow. Enjoy another big day Bulls.
The Bull(hitting at 97%)
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
The Bull is just getting started
What a week for the Bull and all of his faithful followers.
The Bull was hitting at 88.9% entering today for earnings and he only went on to improve that. Lets review as usual:
1. IBM - The Bull said they would blow past earnings and boy did they folks. Huge beat for IBM.
2. EBAY - The Bull knew their estimates were to low and EBAY went on to beat them although the Bull is still not a fan of the company.
3. WFC - WB did miss but the Bull and his favorite bank came right on through. Huge beat for Wells Fargo just as the Bull had declared.
4. JPM - The Bull called a beat but he will admit he had his doubts but this is a good sign for the company going forward.
5. KO - Coke was an easy pick with the weak dollar and emerging markets that coke is dominating in.
6. AMR - The Bull has been calling his disciples to be short all weak and after close AMR produced the miss that the Bull was calling for.
That makes it 6/6 today and an amazing 14/15 this week in a game that is "nothing more than flipping a coin". Better yet is the Bull has for the most part been Bullish in a quarter where last week every news channel was predicting the worst earning quarter since the beginning of the century. Luckily you all have The BULL.
For tomorrow the Bull has been promising SEVEN different prediction but due to the Bull's recent success he will offer more than twice that amount. Lets get right to it.
Thursday:
1. GOOG - I love GOOG long term but I do have some doubts about it this quarter. They dropped 9% after there last quarter release and the option activity is telling me that no one really has any idea where it is going. There are many people who think this stock is going to miss and miss badly due to the fact that YHOO has gained such ground on them. GOOG does not give guidance which makes this a guessing game but I am going with one of the Bulls closest friends(J) and going to go with a beat here.
2. HOG - The stock is down 40% for year but has had recent success in last couple days since Polaris beat earnings but I don't think it carries over. I think HOG misses because Polaris beat because of off-road machines, not because of motorcycles. HOG MISS
3. PFE - I like this company long term but every drug company is having trouble right now with their big time drugs and these people are more worried about who to buy out then there stock price. I think their drugs disappoint and they miss.
4. AMTD - I don't like them as much as I like Schwab but their daily volume of trades was up 8% for FEB and even more for January and I think the volatile market will help AMTD beat earnings as well.
5. MER - Financials have been on a roll but MER has made so many mistakes these past few weeks I don't see how they can beat estimates. I realize WFC and JPM beat estimates but MER was so deep in the credit crisis I am not ready to be bullish on them so I have to call a loss.
6. ETFC - I love ETFC, I really do but I have many doubts. I am high on AMTD and Schwab because they are taking business from ETFC but at the same time the estimates for ETFC are for them to lose money per share. They have missed last three quarters but had beaten on 12/13 quarters before that. They have to show me they are back before I jump on this bandwagon although I love their commercials.
7. CTX - They use to be a lock to beat but after missing by over 900% last quarter how can I call a beat here. I can't so I will go with a miss.
8. LUV - I truly do like Southwest but I can't see them or any other airline outside of Jet Blue beating earnings and they have had many problems with the mechanics of their aircraft so I have to call a miss.
9. CAL - Same story as Southwest. Calling a miss.
10. TXT - This is a very easy call, the estimate of 84 cents is a complete joke. They at least post 90 cents EPS and I am not even a fan. Call it another beat.
11. UTX - Might be best ran company on the planet and I think their EPS of 1.01 dollars is a couple cents to low. I see them beating even though its a hard market for a company like UTX.
12. WWW -While I am not very high on footwear, this stock has been beaten down and their EPS predictions will not be hard to beat. Call it a beat.
12. SMSC - Difficult call here, I have heard from sources that they will beat estimates but their revenue will be down which means stays away but they will beat I have heard.
14. NOK - I think they beat estimates but I am hardly to high on any cell phone company. I think it is a dreadful market.
15. DHR - Like UTX and TXT I think they beat but only beat slightly.
The Bull was hitting at 88.9% entering today for earnings and he only went on to improve that. Lets review as usual:
1. IBM - The Bull said they would blow past earnings and boy did they folks. Huge beat for IBM.
2. EBAY - The Bull knew their estimates were to low and EBAY went on to beat them although the Bull is still not a fan of the company.
3. WFC - WB did miss but the Bull and his favorite bank came right on through. Huge beat for Wells Fargo just as the Bull had declared.
4. JPM - The Bull called a beat but he will admit he had his doubts but this is a good sign for the company going forward.
5. KO - Coke was an easy pick with the weak dollar and emerging markets that coke is dominating in.
6. AMR - The Bull has been calling his disciples to be short all weak and after close AMR produced the miss that the Bull was calling for.
That makes it 6/6 today and an amazing 14/15 this week in a game that is "nothing more than flipping a coin". Better yet is the Bull has for the most part been Bullish in a quarter where last week every news channel was predicting the worst earning quarter since the beginning of the century. Luckily you all have The BULL.
For tomorrow the Bull has been promising SEVEN different prediction but due to the Bull's recent success he will offer more than twice that amount. Lets get right to it.
Thursday:
1. GOOG - I love GOOG long term but I do have some doubts about it this quarter. They dropped 9% after there last quarter release and the option activity is telling me that no one really has any idea where it is going. There are many people who think this stock is going to miss and miss badly due to the fact that YHOO has gained such ground on them. GOOG does not give guidance which makes this a guessing game but I am going with one of the Bulls closest friends(J) and going to go with a beat here.
2. HOG - The stock is down 40% for year but has had recent success in last couple days since Polaris beat earnings but I don't think it carries over. I think HOG misses because Polaris beat because of off-road machines, not because of motorcycles. HOG MISS
3. PFE - I like this company long term but every drug company is having trouble right now with their big time drugs and these people are more worried about who to buy out then there stock price. I think their drugs disappoint and they miss.
4. AMTD - I don't like them as much as I like Schwab but their daily volume of trades was up 8% for FEB and even more for January and I think the volatile market will help AMTD beat earnings as well.
5. MER - Financials have been on a roll but MER has made so many mistakes these past few weeks I don't see how they can beat estimates. I realize WFC and JPM beat estimates but MER was so deep in the credit crisis I am not ready to be bullish on them so I have to call a loss.
6. ETFC - I love ETFC, I really do but I have many doubts. I am high on AMTD and Schwab because they are taking business from ETFC but at the same time the estimates for ETFC are for them to lose money per share. They have missed last three quarters but had beaten on 12/13 quarters before that. They have to show me they are back before I jump on this bandwagon although I love their commercials.
7. CTX - They use to be a lock to beat but after missing by over 900% last quarter how can I call a beat here. I can't so I will go with a miss.
8. LUV - I truly do like Southwest but I can't see them or any other airline outside of Jet Blue beating earnings and they have had many problems with the mechanics of their aircraft so I have to call a miss.
9. CAL - Same story as Southwest. Calling a miss.
10. TXT - This is a very easy call, the estimate of 84 cents is a complete joke. They at least post 90 cents EPS and I am not even a fan. Call it another beat.
11. UTX - Might be best ran company on the planet and I think their EPS of 1.01 dollars is a couple cents to low. I see them beating even though its a hard market for a company like UTX.
12. WWW -While I am not very high on footwear, this stock has been beaten down and their EPS predictions will not be hard to beat. Call it a beat.
12. SMSC - Difficult call here, I have heard from sources that they will beat estimates but their revenue will be down which means stays away but they will beat I have heard.
14. NOK - I think they beat estimates but I am hardly to high on any cell phone company. I think it is a dreadful market.
15. DHR - Like UTX and TXT I think they beat but only beat slightly.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The Bull's Divine Wisdom continues
To the Disciples,
People say earnings are impossible to predict. That ever since the SEC cracked down that no one, not even the ultimate insiders had any sort of idea how companies would report yet here is the Bull, in all of his divinity, calling earning after earning. Shall we look at the report card so far:
XTO - Beat earnings, energy was an easy call for the Bull. We will give ourselves only a B rating for this one. But make that one out of one.
SCHW: The sinners laughed at the Bull when he said they would destroy earnings thanks to the volatile market and experienced traders and when they did the sinners ran for cover. This was an A+ call. Make it 2 for 2.
JNJ: People were mixed, the commentors said consumer company can't beat. The Bull never had a doubt. Make it 3/3.
USB: A Minneapolis banked regional bank that had kept itself above the fray, not a hard call for the Bull. Make it 4/4.
NTRS: They barely got by earnings and had a small beat but the Bull called a miss but let this be a foreshadowing of the other regional banks. Small beats. Make it 4/5.
CSX: The Bull guaranteed a beat and boy did they. Make it 5/6.
INTC: The Bull was unsure, he couldn't make up his mind but ultimately he said if forced he would pick a miss. Well they didn't miss or beat and therefore the Bull is not counting this. Keep it 5/6.
To be fair the rest were not listed in the Bull's calendar of earnings but were listed below for his daily picks but the Bull pointed out they were earnigns. How did the Bull do on those:
JOEZ: Beat huge, make it 6/7.
FRX: Beat estimates but guidance was down but the Bull wasn't predicting guidance. Make it 7/8.
IIIN: Bull called a huge beat and they came through and are up 9% today. Make it 8/9.
The Bull is batting 88.9% in a game that is impossible to call.
Tomorrows earnings:
1. IBM: IBM will beat estimates but they won't move much. They are 65% international company and weakening dollar will help them. I realize their is great volatility for a 7% move in options but I don't see this stock going up 7% after hours. They are near 52 week highs but they will beat.
2. JPM: Hard call to make after WB. The Bull thinks JPM is the best of the banks and believes they will beat earnings but watch out for the amount of jobs they cut and the write down they will announce. They will beat earnings.
3. KO - Coke will beat earnings due to its presence in emerging markets.
4. AMR - Have had a short rating for this stock all week and hope you all followed since its down yet another 8% today. I think they have just another miserable day tomorrow.
5. EBAY - A lot of people are scared to touch this stock since it is the first for new CEO John Donahoe and the first since they revamped their business last quarter but I think expectations are modest and the Bull sees yet another company beat earnings.
6. WFC - I love this stock long term. It has huge cash flow, little exposure to sub-prime mess, great dividend and kick ass management team and the Bull is unsure about tomorrow but he is going to go with yet another BEAT.
Can the Bull keep hitting at 88%. Tomorrow we will see.
I know their are some Solar Fun(Solar stocks) readers out there and want to point out that today is the first ever ETF for Solar stocks(25 companies that differ in their regards to how they take part in the solar fun) it is called TAN.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 15.
People say earnings are impossible to predict. That ever since the SEC cracked down that no one, not even the ultimate insiders had any sort of idea how companies would report yet here is the Bull, in all of his divinity, calling earning after earning. Shall we look at the report card so far:
XTO - Beat earnings, energy was an easy call for the Bull. We will give ourselves only a B rating for this one. But make that one out of one.
SCHW: The sinners laughed at the Bull when he said they would destroy earnings thanks to the volatile market and experienced traders and when they did the sinners ran for cover. This was an A+ call. Make it 2 for 2.
JNJ: People were mixed, the commentors said consumer company can't beat. The Bull never had a doubt. Make it 3/3.
USB: A Minneapolis banked regional bank that had kept itself above the fray, not a hard call for the Bull. Make it 4/4.
NTRS: They barely got by earnings and had a small beat but the Bull called a miss but let this be a foreshadowing of the other regional banks. Small beats. Make it 4/5.
CSX: The Bull guaranteed a beat and boy did they. Make it 5/6.
INTC: The Bull was unsure, he couldn't make up his mind but ultimately he said if forced he would pick a miss. Well they didn't miss or beat and therefore the Bull is not counting this. Keep it 5/6.
To be fair the rest were not listed in the Bull's calendar of earnings but were listed below for his daily picks but the Bull pointed out they were earnigns. How did the Bull do on those:
JOEZ: Beat huge, make it 6/7.
FRX: Beat estimates but guidance was down but the Bull wasn't predicting guidance. Make it 7/8.
IIIN: Bull called a huge beat and they came through and are up 9% today. Make it 8/9.
The Bull is batting 88.9% in a game that is impossible to call.
Tomorrows earnings:
1. IBM: IBM will beat estimates but they won't move much. They are 65% international company and weakening dollar will help them. I realize their is great volatility for a 7% move in options but I don't see this stock going up 7% after hours. They are near 52 week highs but they will beat.
2. JPM: Hard call to make after WB. The Bull thinks JPM is the best of the banks and believes they will beat earnings but watch out for the amount of jobs they cut and the write down they will announce. They will beat earnings.
3. KO - Coke will beat earnings due to its presence in emerging markets.
4. AMR - Have had a short rating for this stock all week and hope you all followed since its down yet another 8% today. I think they have just another miserable day tomorrow.
5. EBAY - A lot of people are scared to touch this stock since it is the first for new CEO John Donahoe and the first since they revamped their business last quarter but I think expectations are modest and the Bull sees yet another company beat earnings.
6. WFC - I love this stock long term. It has huge cash flow, little exposure to sub-prime mess, great dividend and kick ass management team and the Bull is unsure about tomorrow but he is going to go with yet another BEAT.
Can the Bull keep hitting at 88%. Tomorrow we will see.
I know their are some Solar Fun(Solar stocks) readers out there and want to point out that today is the first ever ETF for Solar stocks(25 companies that differ in their regards to how they take part in the solar fun) it is called TAN.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 15.
Monday, April 14, 2008
A reading from the Gospel of the Bull
What a day for the Bull and his disciples. The Bull's daily picks were up an average of 22.375% and his shorts down an average of 24.37%. Only HGLC was incorrect from the Bulls picks but the Bull is backing Hunt Gold again tomorrow in hopes of an hostile takeover from FGGO.
The Bull has to apologize to his protege the Junior Bull and to his millions, and the BULL MEANS MILLIONS of readers for not posting two of the JR. Bull's latest declarations. The Junior Bull since last thursday has been badgering the SR. Bull with all this circuit city buyout talk and the Bull balked saying who would Buy Tits and Ass, who would buy? Tits and Ass being the Bull he is put it best, "Bull stop thinking logically in a bear market, it doesn't have to make sense, they will be bought out." Well the JR Bull as usually was correct and a company I believe to be going bankrupt decided to buy another company going bankrupt. Only in the world of the Bears.
The Junior Bull also shared his penny stock of the month with the Bull last night which was AVAL which was up a Bull like 42.6% today.
Well I am sure a couple of you are wondering what happened to schawb's earnings today. Well they are scheduled for this week and unlike any other company do not say when but the Bull is guessing before thursday but the Bull's predictions for the company stay the same even with WB posting terrible earnings. So here is the Bull's initial take on earnings for tomorrow's companies.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ - The Bull loves JNJ. The Bull thinks JNJ is large enough and a diversified enough company that its weakness in the pharma department will not ruin the overall quarter. The weakening dollar will also help this international superstar. And most importantly, the one investor the Bull trusts continues to build his massive stake in JNJ(The Oracle of Omaha)The Bull is going against the experts and saying JNJ beats estimates.
2. NTRS - With WB missing so badly the Bull is calling a missed quarter for this Midwest powerhouse.
3. USB - Yes it got hammered today because of WB but the Bull is bullish on good ole USB. Unlike almost every other bank USB has hardly dropped this year because it was pickier about assuming bad credit risks and benefited. I think USB puts up a nice quarter and beats estimates.
4. CSX - I can't believe people think this company is going to miss. Get into it, it will not miss. Railroads are going like its the 1860's all over again. All on board. CHOO CHOO.
5. INTC - People say since AMD(their closest competitor) missed so badly last week that this singles a huge miss for Intel. Intel did have a terrible last quarter and the stock has jumped from 17 back to 21 but the Bull still has doubts. The Bull would stay clear of this stock tomorrow. But the Bull is never one to back down from putting himself out there so the Bull predicts a miss and the stock is heading back down.
WED:
1. IBM -
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
What does the Bull like for tomorrow?
Penny Stocks: Long CHHB, RHWI, BPWI, DPHG, SAMBW. Short: RYMM, GAGI, PANNF, NTHD, SHZO.
Long: BDAY(tight limit sell), SIRI, IMB, FLY(tight limit sell), DAL(hope you are already in since the Bull said to get in yesterday), FRX(earnings I think they beat as well, get in), GS(it belongs in 170s, this is a week play), JOEZ(will beat earnings as well), IIIN(I think they beat as well).
Premarket: INOC, and FBR are both possible longs.
The Bull realizes most of you are reading this and saying "BULL, we Love you but everywhere we turn we hear how this might be the worst earnings quarter of this decade, so how can you be so Bullish?" Just as Jesus himself was doubted endlessly by his disciples in the book of Mark, the Bull to will be doubted until the day he passes into the heavens and only then will the people realize who the Bull truly is.
Here ends the reading of the The Bull, Chapter 4, verse 14.
The Bull has to apologize to his protege the Junior Bull and to his millions, and the BULL MEANS MILLIONS of readers for not posting two of the JR. Bull's latest declarations. The Junior Bull since last thursday has been badgering the SR. Bull with all this circuit city buyout talk and the Bull balked saying who would Buy Tits and Ass, who would buy? Tits and Ass being the Bull he is put it best, "Bull stop thinking logically in a bear market, it doesn't have to make sense, they will be bought out." Well the JR Bull as usually was correct and a company I believe to be going bankrupt decided to buy another company going bankrupt. Only in the world of the Bears.
The Junior Bull also shared his penny stock of the month with the Bull last night which was AVAL which was up a Bull like 42.6% today.
Well I am sure a couple of you are wondering what happened to schawb's earnings today. Well they are scheduled for this week and unlike any other company do not say when but the Bull is guessing before thursday but the Bull's predictions for the company stay the same even with WB posting terrible earnings. So here is the Bull's initial take on earnings for tomorrow's companies.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ - The Bull loves JNJ. The Bull thinks JNJ is large enough and a diversified enough company that its weakness in the pharma department will not ruin the overall quarter. The weakening dollar will also help this international superstar. And most importantly, the one investor the Bull trusts continues to build his massive stake in JNJ(The Oracle of Omaha)The Bull is going against the experts and saying JNJ beats estimates.
2. NTRS - With WB missing so badly the Bull is calling a missed quarter for this Midwest powerhouse.
3. USB - Yes it got hammered today because of WB but the Bull is bullish on good ole USB. Unlike almost every other bank USB has hardly dropped this year because it was pickier about assuming bad credit risks and benefited. I think USB puts up a nice quarter and beats estimates.
4. CSX - I can't believe people think this company is going to miss. Get into it, it will not miss. Railroads are going like its the 1860's all over again. All on board. CHOO CHOO.
5. INTC - People say since AMD(their closest competitor) missed so badly last week that this singles a huge miss for Intel. Intel did have a terrible last quarter and the stock has jumped from 17 back to 21 but the Bull still has doubts. The Bull would stay clear of this stock tomorrow. But the Bull is never one to back down from putting himself out there so the Bull predicts a miss and the stock is heading back down.
WED:
1. IBM -
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
What does the Bull like for tomorrow?
Penny Stocks: Long CHHB, RHWI, BPWI, DPHG, SAMBW. Short: RYMM, GAGI, PANNF, NTHD, SHZO.
Long: BDAY(tight limit sell), SIRI, IMB, FLY(tight limit sell), DAL(hope you are already in since the Bull said to get in yesterday), FRX(earnings I think they beat as well, get in), GS(it belongs in 170s, this is a week play), JOEZ(will beat earnings as well), IIIN(I think they beat as well).
Premarket: INOC, and FBR are both possible longs.
The Bull realizes most of you are reading this and saying "BULL, we Love you but everywhere we turn we hear how this might be the worst earnings quarter of this decade, so how can you be so Bullish?" Just as Jesus himself was doubted endlessly by his disciples in the book of Mark, the Bull to will be doubted until the day he passes into the heavens and only then will the people realize who the Bull truly is.
Here ends the reading of the The Bull, Chapter 4, verse 14.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Earnings Week
The Bull is excited to be back for his favorite weeks of the year. EARNINGS WEEK(more like Earnings Month).
Here is the Bull's personal earning calendar for week.
Monday:
1. XTO - They are trading near 52 week high, related companies have posted beats so far for the past quarter. Makes me think this is a play. Maybe only a 4-5% jump but its stil 4-5%.
2. SCHW - Yes, many people are getting out of stocks but schawb attends to have more "professional" traders who realize a volatile market is the best market. Their volume will be high and I expect them to beat earnings as well.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ
2. NTRS
3. USB
4. CSX
5. INTC
WED:
1. IBM
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
I only filled in my opinions on Monday's stocks but I will fill in the rest tomorrow. The Bull has had a couple unexpected events happen tonight which he has had to deal with and has dealt with and achieved the usual success but I will fill in the rest and give the whisper earnings the Bull has.
Penny Stocks:
Short DGCO,SAMBW; Long HGLC, XQST, PXBM - They are all high volume high trade stocks so easy to get in and get out.
Tomorrow:
Long: DAL, DLA(have close limit sell on it), AAI,EEV(actually a short), CETV, CIEN,
Short: Everything else
Got pre-market capability?
I would short CMLS, ASTIZ, APO and KEG and buy OCNW(made us a lot of money in the start), SAL, BMP, and ABII.
Look tomorrow for the greatest earnings post you will have ever seen.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 13.
The Divine Bull
Here is the Bull's personal earning calendar for week.
Monday:
1. XTO - They are trading near 52 week high, related companies have posted beats so far for the past quarter. Makes me think this is a play. Maybe only a 4-5% jump but its stil 4-5%.
2. SCHW - Yes, many people are getting out of stocks but schawb attends to have more "professional" traders who realize a volatile market is the best market. Their volume will be high and I expect them to beat earnings as well.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ
2. NTRS
3. USB
4. CSX
5. INTC
WED:
1. IBM
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
I only filled in my opinions on Monday's stocks but I will fill in the rest tomorrow. The Bull has had a couple unexpected events happen tonight which he has had to deal with and has dealt with and achieved the usual success but I will fill in the rest and give the whisper earnings the Bull has.
Penny Stocks:
Short DGCO,SAMBW; Long HGLC, XQST, PXBM - They are all high volume high trade stocks so easy to get in and get out.
Tomorrow:
Long: DAL, DLA(have close limit sell on it), AAI,EEV(actually a short), CETV, CIEN,
Short: Everything else
Got pre-market capability?
I would short CMLS, ASTIZ, APO and KEG and buy OCNW(made us a lot of money in the start), SAL, BMP, and ABII.
Look tomorrow for the greatest earnings post you will have ever seen.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 13.
The Divine Bull
Bull related news
The Bull is back from another gruelling week of business deals that covered the entire eastern realm of the United States. As usual, the Bull's trip was of the utmost success but he is happy to be back home in time to catch the Sunday Round of the Masters.
On a stock related note, the Bull's streak of 18 straight days his longs were in "black" is now over with a crushing day on Friday that saw the Bull enter the zone of red(The now 15 day streak of shorts being in red is still intact).
The Bull was talking to a golf guru who many in my circle of friends call "GOD". I told GOD that Tiger would shoot a 68 on Saturday, this of course is exactly what Tiger shot. I talked to GOD again this morning and mentioned that I had money on TIGER to win the masters at 15-1 odds today and GOD laughed saying Tiger was not going to pull it off. Will God or the Bull prevail?
God and the Bull also have a gentleman's bet of 5,000 dollars on who will finish higher. Tiger or Phil. The Bull has Tiger and God has Phil. I am feeling that is 5,000 in the bag.
Fantasy baseball related I have two huge announcements. My best friend in the fantasy baseball league decided pretty much give me Chase Utley, Ben Sheets(2 starts, 15k's, ZERO ERA), and Matt Kemp(young stud) for Roy Halladay(Sheets is better), Jim Thome(180 average) and Dustin Pedoria(who my friend seems to love). Needless to say the BUll was thrilled by this. The Bull also added Grady Siezmore to his potent lineup in a 6 player swap. The BUll officially starts this league tomorrow against his friend who gave him Chase Utley. Wish the Bull luck.
The Bull was in DC on Friday and got a chance to meet with many of his highly influential friends on capitol hill and on "K" street. There was some huge stock news given to the Bull which he will share throughout the next few weeks in this blog.
The Bull has to go turn on his plasma and enjoy Tigers victory lap. There will be a stock related post tonight.
The BULL
On a stock related note, the Bull's streak of 18 straight days his longs were in "black" is now over with a crushing day on Friday that saw the Bull enter the zone of red(The now 15 day streak of shorts being in red is still intact).
The Bull was talking to a golf guru who many in my circle of friends call "GOD". I told GOD that Tiger would shoot a 68 on Saturday, this of course is exactly what Tiger shot. I talked to GOD again this morning and mentioned that I had money on TIGER to win the masters at 15-1 odds today and GOD laughed saying Tiger was not going to pull it off. Will God or the Bull prevail?
God and the Bull also have a gentleman's bet of 5,000 dollars on who will finish higher. Tiger or Phil. The Bull has Tiger and God has Phil. I am feeling that is 5,000 in the bag.
Fantasy baseball related I have two huge announcements. My best friend in the fantasy baseball league decided pretty much give me Chase Utley, Ben Sheets(2 starts, 15k's, ZERO ERA), and Matt Kemp(young stud) for Roy Halladay(Sheets is better), Jim Thome(180 average) and Dustin Pedoria(who my friend seems to love). Needless to say the BUll was thrilled by this. The Bull also added Grady Siezmore to his potent lineup in a 6 player swap. The BUll officially starts this league tomorrow against his friend who gave him Chase Utley. Wish the Bull luck.
The Bull was in DC on Friday and got a chance to meet with many of his highly influential friends on capitol hill and on "K" street. There was some huge stock news given to the Bull which he will share throughout the next few weeks in this blog.
The Bull has to go turn on his plasma and enjoy Tigers victory lap. There will be a stock related post tonight.
The BULL
Thursday, April 10, 2008
The Bull's Amazing Day
There are times when the Bull just wonders how he does it. How does the Bull manage to be up 25.49% today when he owns 18 different stocks. Well their percent up for the Bull today were in order from highest to lowest: 100%, 68.75%, 67.33%, 35.71%, 33.33%, 26.67%, 25%, 23.93%, 19.76%, 9%, 8.91%, 8.34%, 6.19%, 0%, -.68%, -1.17%, -1.76%.
Of course if that is not enough the Bull's shorts were down 10.77% on five different shorts.
The Bull was going to take your inside the mind of the Bull but for reasons the Bull cannot post, that blog entry will have to wait for another day.
So I will get right to my take on tomorrow's market.
Biggest news of the day is GE reporting earnings. They are the barometer of the entire worlds economy and the market loves to follow their earnings. The good news is that 2 of the last 3 quarters they have beat earnings but the bad news is that they are only 3 for 11 in the last 11 quarters. But they have also beat earnings their last 3 "fourth quarters". But will the earnings really matter or will the guidance mean everything. Its a mixture of both and I would not short or long this stock since it moves with such large volume its hard to get a big swing either way.
There are only five companies reporting earnings and the only other one worth mentioning is EXH which I do see beating earnings and getting positive guidance.
The Bull likes PTRY as a come back play but would set a limit at around 10.50 in case the stock does have another 33% drop. The best play would be to buy this stock and then get some put options on it to limit risk.
I would also be long in PSMT, BGP, BHI, GAFC, BRWC.
The Bull wishes he could post his original entry but he will post it at a later date when the time is right.
The Bull
Of course if that is not enough the Bull's shorts were down 10.77% on five different shorts.
The Bull was going to take your inside the mind of the Bull but for reasons the Bull cannot post, that blog entry will have to wait for another day.
So I will get right to my take on tomorrow's market.
Biggest news of the day is GE reporting earnings. They are the barometer of the entire worlds economy and the market loves to follow their earnings. The good news is that 2 of the last 3 quarters they have beat earnings but the bad news is that they are only 3 for 11 in the last 11 quarters. But they have also beat earnings their last 3 "fourth quarters". But will the earnings really matter or will the guidance mean everything. Its a mixture of both and I would not short or long this stock since it moves with such large volume its hard to get a big swing either way.
There are only five companies reporting earnings and the only other one worth mentioning is EXH which I do see beating earnings and getting positive guidance.
The Bull likes PTRY as a come back play but would set a limit at around 10.50 in case the stock does have another 33% drop. The best play would be to buy this stock and then get some put options on it to limit risk.
I would also be long in PSMT, BGP, BHI, GAFC, BRWC.
The Bull wishes he could post his original entry but he will post it at a later date when the time is right.
The Bull
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