As much as the Bull loves to share stories from his non-stop action packed life, this blog is for stock picks and its time to get back down to business.
The Bull has talked about "short squeezes" many times before and basically for review, a short squeeze happens when a stock that has a large shares of their stock sold "short" gets some sort of catalyst(good news) and the stock jumps say 3-5%, the people who are short get scared and try to cover(meaning buy the stock) which causes the stock to go up another 3-5%, then more shorts get scared and this goes on and on until a stock jumps 30 or more percent. This is known as a short squeeze or squeezing the shorts.
Well here are the Bull's top nine short squeeze plays:
1. BRKR: Short interest ratio: 5 Insider Buying: $2M Bruker BioSciences Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, service, and marketing of analytical and life science systems and associated products worldwide.
2. CKR - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $10M CKE Restaurants, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, operation, franchising, and licensing of quick-service and fast-casual restaurants in the United States. It operates its restaurants primarily under the brand names Carl's Jr., Hardee's, and La Salsa. Trades for 8x EBITDA
3. GGP - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $26.5M General Growth Properties, Inc. operates as a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust.
4. MFW - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $12M M&F Worldwide Corp., which produces licorice products and provides check-related services, said in early May that its first-quarter profit fell on higher expenses. Trades for 10x EBITDA.
5. BSG - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $1.7M Bisys Group Inc., which provides outsourcing services to businesses, said May 10th its fiscal third-quarter net income plunged from a year-ago period which included a large profit from discontinued operations. Trades for 9x EBITDA
6. TRN - Short interest ratio: 8 Insider Buying: $3.9M Trinity Industries, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various products and services for the transportation, industrial, construction, and energy sectors primarily in the United States. Trades for 9x EBITDA
7. NTRI - Short interest ratio: 10 Insider Buying: $8.7M Advancis Pharmaceutical Corporation engages in the development and commercialization of anti-infective drugs for the treatment various infectious diseases.
8. BABY - Short interest ratio: 11 Insider Buying: $3.3M Natus Medical Incorporated develops, manufactures, and markets neurodiagnostic and newborn care products.
9. VLNC - Short interest ratio: 15 Insider Buying: $2M Valence Technology, Inc. engages in the commercialization of phosphate-based lithium-ion rechargeable battery technology, known as Saphion.
These stocks are all being heavily shorted which means people believe these stocks should go down. Personally I believe only VLNC, and GGP are very dangerous plays. If you like risk and see a catalyst then these are your stocks.
PICKS FOR TOMORROW:
Here are 5 scientific picks based on the law of averages.
1. ARBA: Stock is down for three days in a row, in its history it has been down three days in a row 52 times and has come back with a positive day 40 of those times and the average one day return is 2.92%
2. CSCO: It is 37/47 in the same criteria with a one day return average of 2.38%
3. CIEN: 39/53 for average of 2.25%
4. ORCL: 36/53 for 1.72%
5. AMAT: 58/76 for 1.48%
What does this week have in store for us all?
It is a big week in many different sectors of the stock market and I will hold back from technical analysis but I will say I would be short in car manufactures like Ford(F), General Motors (GM) and Toyota(best ran in the world)(TM) as they report auto sales for march on Tuesday. Also watch out if you are in retail stocks. JC Pennies(JCP) lowering of their forecast is not a very good precursor for Target(TGT) and Wallmart(WMT) and other retailers who report same store sales on this thursday. To go along with these Best Buy(BBY) reports earnings this week and I think they will miss big time. I would have puts or be short. No one is buying technology these days, I think JC Pennies weak easter sales will transfer over to best buy and the rest of the group. Also Dell has an analyst meeting and this stock is so cheap it might be worth a look but HP(HPQ) is such a better computer maker and business I would not strongly look to hard into it.
It seems a large percentage of the commenter's are either short or long in the stock TMA and it is down 18% coming into Monday but I think this further delay they were granted on Saturday shows that the banks know the deal has to get done and this stock will be saved. I would not be short in this stock.
A lot of times the best way to predict the market is to copy the "whales" and "insiders" since it would seem that billion dollar hedge funds must get things right the majority of the time and therefore I bring you ten stock I see unusual option activity in(for the last week).
1. WM - Jan09 15 dollar put
2. MTG - Jan09 25 dollar call
3. SPY - Both Sept08 134 Call and Put(this means the stock will be volatile but people don't know which way, its called a long straddle and the person makes money as long as the stock does not stay at where it is).
4. PDE - OCT08 35 call
5. MSFT - JULY08 22.5 PUT(Bull does not agree)
6. AW - Jan09 - 10 dollar put.
7. MYGN - AUG08 40 dollar put
8. HPQ - AUG08 45 dollar put(Bull does not agree)
9. IBM - MAY08 135 call
10. AERG - JAN09 2.5 call, JAN09 5 call
Bull also has 6 stock upgrades that he agrees with:
1. X - Rating on US Steel (X) was raised to Buy, Merrill Lynch said. $150 price target. Estimates also raised, to reflect strong steel pricing. 100% vertical integration allos the company to better manage rising raw materials costs.
2. ADI - Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Analog Devices (ADI) to Buy from Neutral based on strong position realtive to other analog stocks. See heavy exposure to instrial end markets as major positive. Price target upped to $34 from $28.
3. ISIL -Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Intersil (ISIL) to Buy from Neutral based on new product cycle in notebooks, LCD DTV/displays and wireless handsets. Expect stock to fare better than peers during current downturn. Price target raised to $31 from $24.
4. LEH - Lehman (LEH) was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Citigroup said. $65 price target. Attractive buying opportunity, after being on the sidelines for a couple of years. Government support will likely stop any further liquidity-driven meltdown.
5. LLTC - Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Linear Technology (LLTC) to Buy from Neutral. Positives include limited exposure to wireless handsets and consumer along with premier business model and adjustable spending. Price target pushed to $36 from $30.
6. MUR - Murphy Oil (MUR) was upgraded to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. $104 price target. Company is one of the most leveraged to rising oil prices. Deutsche Bank said it is upgrading MUR to a Buy rating due to higher oil price forecast. Target price now $104.
Two Penny stocks for people(I do not advise buying but if you wan't to, I own none of these for full disclosure)
1. REDE - Stock had a late drop off to 54 cents. RedEnvelope, Inc. operates as an online retailer of branded gifts in the United States. The company primarily offers jewelry, home products, men's and women's accessories, and new baby gifts through its catalog, Web store, and phone store. Its Web store enables customers to search gifts by recipient, occasion, category, and price point, as well as to register for the company's gift reminder service, sign up to receive email promotions, view order history, chat with a customer service representative, and request a catalog.
2. OCHT - stock is at 3.5 cents. Orchestra Therapeutics, Inc., an immuno-pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of various products to treat autoimmune and infectious diseases. It offers NeuroVax, an immune-based therapeutic product, which is based on T-cell receptor peptide technology for the treatment of multiple sclerosis. NeuroVax is in Phase II clinical trails
The BULL
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Saturday, March 29, 2008
The Bull hits jackpot and goes to Charlotte
The Bull was back in black last night playing the wheel and he has a few observations from the floor of the casino:
1. The Recession is not hitting gamblers anonymous.
- I have been bearish on the large casino stocks these past few months due to the fact that people cannot afford the trip out to Las Vegas but that doesn't mean the local casino's are struggling. Traveling 5 miles down the road instead of 1,000 miles by plane makes going gambling a whole lot easier. The Bull prefers to play among his people(the masses) and not our lovely visitors from Hong Kong in the high stakes room. Last night I would honestly say that 90% of the people there made less than 30,000 dollars a year and most of them looked like they walked right out of the "hot soup" line at their local homeless shelter. These people clearly don't have the money to waste Benjamin Franklin's like the Bull does yet they play large amounts and lose time and time again. The recession can take food from peoples stomachs, water from their mouths, cable from their eyes, but it cannot take the joy of gambling from their hearts.
2. Free Comp's are anything but special.
- The Bull pulled up in his friends Rolls Royce and the Casino knew we were business but instead of greeting the Bull with three half naked women, a bottle of crystal and a key to the penthouse, they instead just asked the Bull if he wanted to sign up for a players card so "they could keep track of his play". Look, when the Bull is taking the casino for all its worth I promise you the casino will have all their cameras and attention solely on the Bull. After we settled in at the Roulette table and starting winning large amounts of money(I should say I started to win) the casino host came over and offered the Bull a free nights stay in a suite. The Bull personally took this as a slap in the face, here sits the Bull playing thousands of dollars a spin and they want to make him feel like a "special VIP" by offering him a room that runs at about 200 dollars a night? I tipped the fucking Valet on the way out of the casino more than 200 dollars for Christ sakes.
3. The Bull is amazed at how gullible and stupid people are.
- Of the 16 people at our roulette table, 12 of them had notebooks and pens to keep track of which numbers hit. I realize that over millions of spins it is 'possible' that a roulette table(due to its imperfections) will favor a segment of the wheel more than the other but do these people think taking the hottest number in the last 50 spins and betting it is going to make them millionaires? If these idiots spent that much time doing research on stock picks they would surely not be playing quarters a fucking time at the Roulette table.
4. What is the fun in betting pennies?
- The gentleman(20 year old) kid next to me was betting 4 quarters a time so he could match the dollar minimum bet(a quarter on even, one on red ect). What is the fun in that? At the end of the night he told his friend he was down 4 dollars after two hours of playing. The Bull would have given him 400 dollars to stop fucking looking at his bets and getting a boner every time the Bull hit yet another 35-1 number.
5. The Bull missed the Smoking is Mandatory sign.
- Is it just the Bull or does it seem it is mandatory to knock some years off of your life in the casino by smoking? The Bull doesn't give a shit what people do with their lives but why do these people feel the need to light up and blow in the Bulls direction. How do these people even afford cigarettes?
How did the Bull end up and the rest of his gang?
Well the leader of the Bull's pack is trying to save up for a life changing move and he was 66% of the way to the money he needed basically. Well last night he lost 15% of that 66% and spend the rest of the night telling the Bull how "stupid he is" like the Bull gives a rats ass. The Bull on the other hand played his game and got off to a great run before going through a slide in the middle and then ended strongly. The Bull pretty much came out even but if you want numbers the Bull made a pathetic 2,150 dollars. Not much to brag about.
Well the Bull has to go catch his plane to Charlotte to watch UNC take care of Pitino's boys. If UNC loses I will post daily this week, but they won't lose.
The Bull
1. The Recession is not hitting gamblers anonymous.
- I have been bearish on the large casino stocks these past few months due to the fact that people cannot afford the trip out to Las Vegas but that doesn't mean the local casino's are struggling. Traveling 5 miles down the road instead of 1,000 miles by plane makes going gambling a whole lot easier. The Bull prefers to play among his people(the masses) and not our lovely visitors from Hong Kong in the high stakes room. Last night I would honestly say that 90% of the people there made less than 30,000 dollars a year and most of them looked like they walked right out of the "hot soup" line at their local homeless shelter. These people clearly don't have the money to waste Benjamin Franklin's like the Bull does yet they play large amounts and lose time and time again. The recession can take food from peoples stomachs, water from their mouths, cable from their eyes, but it cannot take the joy of gambling from their hearts.
2. Free Comp's are anything but special.
- The Bull pulled up in his friends Rolls Royce and the Casino knew we were business but instead of greeting the Bull with three half naked women, a bottle of crystal and a key to the penthouse, they instead just asked the Bull if he wanted to sign up for a players card so "they could keep track of his play". Look, when the Bull is taking the casino for all its worth I promise you the casino will have all their cameras and attention solely on the Bull. After we settled in at the Roulette table and starting winning large amounts of money(I should say I started to win) the casino host came over and offered the Bull a free nights stay in a suite. The Bull personally took this as a slap in the face, here sits the Bull playing thousands of dollars a spin and they want to make him feel like a "special VIP" by offering him a room that runs at about 200 dollars a night? I tipped the fucking Valet on the way out of the casino more than 200 dollars for Christ sakes.
3. The Bull is amazed at how gullible and stupid people are.
- Of the 16 people at our roulette table, 12 of them had notebooks and pens to keep track of which numbers hit. I realize that over millions of spins it is 'possible' that a roulette table(due to its imperfections) will favor a segment of the wheel more than the other but do these people think taking the hottest number in the last 50 spins and betting it is going to make them millionaires? If these idiots spent that much time doing research on stock picks they would surely not be playing quarters a fucking time at the Roulette table.
4. What is the fun in betting pennies?
- The gentleman(20 year old) kid next to me was betting 4 quarters a time so he could match the dollar minimum bet(a quarter on even, one on red ect). What is the fun in that? At the end of the night he told his friend he was down 4 dollars after two hours of playing. The Bull would have given him 400 dollars to stop fucking looking at his bets and getting a boner every time the Bull hit yet another 35-1 number.
5. The Bull missed the Smoking is Mandatory sign.
- Is it just the Bull or does it seem it is mandatory to knock some years off of your life in the casino by smoking? The Bull doesn't give a shit what people do with their lives but why do these people feel the need to light up and blow in the Bulls direction. How do these people even afford cigarettes?
How did the Bull end up and the rest of his gang?
Well the leader of the Bull's pack is trying to save up for a life changing move and he was 66% of the way to the money he needed basically. Well last night he lost 15% of that 66% and spend the rest of the night telling the Bull how "stupid he is" like the Bull gives a rats ass. The Bull on the other hand played his game and got off to a great run before going through a slide in the middle and then ended strongly. The Bull pretty much came out even but if you want numbers the Bull made a pathetic 2,150 dollars. Not much to brag about.
Well the Bull has to go catch his plane to Charlotte to watch UNC take care of Pitino's boys. If UNC loses I will post daily this week, but they won't lose.
The Bull
Friday, March 28, 2008
Bull at Miami International
To all the Bulls,
I would like to comment on CCZ but I would rather not get myself into trouble and will just say I share all of your anger about the stock but at least no one lost any money.
How did the Bull do today?
Longs: up 31.56% (without CCZ)
Shorts: down(or up in terms of making me money) 6.48%
England: Up 3.34%
Asia: Up 2.62%
Australia: Up .84%
Canada: up 4.64%(rebounded from yesterday's disaster)
Currency: up 1.37%
Futures: DOWN 2.73%
The Bull has a lot to say but his flight is about to leave so he best be going. The Bull needs to be back for a friends party at a casino tonight. I will let all the bulls know how that goes.
The Bull
I would like to comment on CCZ but I would rather not get myself into trouble and will just say I share all of your anger about the stock but at least no one lost any money.
How did the Bull do today?
Longs: up 31.56% (without CCZ)
Shorts: down(or up in terms of making me money) 6.48%
England: Up 3.34%
Asia: Up 2.62%
Australia: Up .84%
Canada: up 4.64%(rebounded from yesterday's disaster)
Currency: up 1.37%
Futures: DOWN 2.73%
The Bull has a lot to say but his flight is about to leave so he best be going. The Bull needs to be back for a friends party at a casino tonight. I will let all the bulls know how that goes.
The Bull
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Welcome to Miami
The Bull setdown in South Beach today and had an EXTREMELY successful day in regards to business. Things could not have gone better and everything should be official by tomorrow at 10 AM ET.
Stock wise today the Bull was a minor success. Longs were up 8.63%, shorts were up(or down in reality)5.22%, London stocks were up 2.87%, Australian stocks up 1.46%, Asian stocks up .85%, futures up 3.45%, currency trading up 2.34%, options were all great and Canadian stocks DOWN 5.2% thanks in large part to RIM.CA(research in motion) but don't worry about it, earnings come next week and it will be good.
The Bull is staying at the Delano Hotel on South Beach and the Bull has had a lot of time to think just sitting out at the beach today and here are some thoughts:
1. Does money matter?
- The Bull was not always richer than God. The Bull was a 3.5 GPA highschool student who people said would never go anywhere. The Bull worked hard(much harder than people think) and came into some money and the rest is history. At first money is the coolest thing, flying first class(now private planes), driving fancy cars, staying in 5 star hotels, eating 8 course meals, ect but every 5 star hotel means less and less.
The Delano Hotel is charging me 1,250 dollars for a one bedroom ocean view room. Yes you get certain luxuries at 5 star hotels but is it worth 1,250 dollars? Of course it is not but then why pay? Because 1,250 to the Bull is like a free room to the average person. What pisses the Bull off is when they act like he is some dumbass. I know the difference between "partial ocean view" and "ocean view" so don't put me in a partial ocean view. Also I don't want the 45 dollar extra add on to have valet parking, I would rather walk 100 feet.
The pool here seems like the "Daytime Hyde" of Miami(Hyde is a nightclub in LA for all of those who don't know). Every girl is 18-24 and a model and every guy seems to either look like an athlete, model or is some rich 40 year old.
Well the Bull has had enough of this 5 star shit so I bought myself a condo down here for my one or two trips down here a year. I'll sell it for twice the value in five years if I decide to anyway.
On the way to Miami the Bull stuck in "Nip/Tuck" for his ride. The Bull's sister got him it and said the Bull reminded her of the character Christian. Christian is arrogant, unethical, womanizing, alcholoic, gambler, and sex addict. The best part is that the Bull thinks she meant it as a slap in the Bull's face,.
My first problem with Nip/Tuck is that the first scene I see is in L.A and they are claiming its in Miami. The more I watched the more I came to see the whole entire set is L.A and they pretend its Miami. I guess little things like that Piss off the Bull.
This got me thinking to the Bull's top 10 TV shows: (in some order)
1. 24
2. Entourage
3. The Shield
4. The Wire
5. Weeds
6. Prison Break
7. Lost
8. Rescue Me
9. Cat House
10. The Bull's Life Story
Top 5 shows not on anymore:
1. TILT
2. Playmakers
3. Big Shots
4. Alias
5. Soprano's
Enough of the chitchat lets get down to stock picks:
The Bull is long in TMA, WWE, RIMM, HURN, CLME, TITN, AMCS, BJGL, DEVC, HAXS, KBH, SAMBW, and my favorite play CCZ down 64% today and even after hours.
The Bull is shorting BSC and Bears everywhere
Stock wise today the Bull was a minor success. Longs were up 8.63%, shorts were up(or down in reality)5.22%, London stocks were up 2.87%, Australian stocks up 1.46%, Asian stocks up .85%, futures up 3.45%, currency trading up 2.34%, options were all great and Canadian stocks DOWN 5.2% thanks in large part to RIM.CA(research in motion) but don't worry about it, earnings come next week and it will be good.
The Bull is staying at the Delano Hotel on South Beach and the Bull has had a lot of time to think just sitting out at the beach today and here are some thoughts:
1. Does money matter?
- The Bull was not always richer than God. The Bull was a 3.5 GPA highschool student who people said would never go anywhere. The Bull worked hard(much harder than people think) and came into some money and the rest is history. At first money is the coolest thing, flying first class(now private planes), driving fancy cars, staying in 5 star hotels, eating 8 course meals, ect but every 5 star hotel means less and less.
The Delano Hotel is charging me 1,250 dollars for a one bedroom ocean view room. Yes you get certain luxuries at 5 star hotels but is it worth 1,250 dollars? Of course it is not but then why pay? Because 1,250 to the Bull is like a free room to the average person. What pisses the Bull off is when they act like he is some dumbass. I know the difference between "partial ocean view" and "ocean view" so don't put me in a partial ocean view. Also I don't want the 45 dollar extra add on to have valet parking, I would rather walk 100 feet.
The pool here seems like the "Daytime Hyde" of Miami(Hyde is a nightclub in LA for all of those who don't know). Every girl is 18-24 and a model and every guy seems to either look like an athlete, model or is some rich 40 year old.
Well the Bull has had enough of this 5 star shit so I bought myself a condo down here for my one or two trips down here a year. I'll sell it for twice the value in five years if I decide to anyway.
On the way to Miami the Bull stuck in "Nip/Tuck" for his ride. The Bull's sister got him it and said the Bull reminded her of the character Christian. Christian is arrogant, unethical, womanizing, alcholoic, gambler, and sex addict. The best part is that the Bull thinks she meant it as a slap in the Bull's face,.
My first problem with Nip/Tuck is that the first scene I see is in L.A and they are claiming its in Miami. The more I watched the more I came to see the whole entire set is L.A and they pretend its Miami. I guess little things like that Piss off the Bull.
This got me thinking to the Bull's top 10 TV shows: (in some order)
1. 24
2. Entourage
3. The Shield
4. The Wire
5. Weeds
6. Prison Break
7. Lost
8. Rescue Me
9. Cat House
10. The Bull's Life Story
Top 5 shows not on anymore:
1. TILT
2. Playmakers
3. Big Shots
4. Alias
5. Soprano's
Enough of the chitchat lets get down to stock picks:
The Bull is long in TMA, WWE, RIMM, HURN, CLME, TITN, AMCS, BJGL, DEVC, HAXS, KBH, SAMBW, and my favorite play CCZ down 64% today and even after hours.
The Bull is shorting BSC and Bears everywhere
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Bull out on Business
The Bull has to head to South Beach tomorrow morning and won't be back until Friday night where he will then again travel to a neighboring state for the regionals of an NCAA Sport.
I will try to get some picks up tomorrow from Miami however but it won't be much of a post.
The Bull
I will try to get some picks up tomorrow from Miami however but it won't be much of a post.
The Bull
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The Bull goes to LA
The Blog has been down of late due to a "large increase" in viewership. The Bull has been out on Business(more on this shortly) and was unaware of the technical malfunctions of "blogspot" until everyone's favorite poker player "Big Add" informed the Bull. I am sure many of you panicked and wondered if the Bull had decided to run to and hide. Let it be known, the Bull will not always be here but he will leave and then return in his divinity at a time thereafter.
The Bull was out in the City of Smog(otherwise known as L.A) this past week on business(looking at properties and investments) and pleasure(NCAA regional basketball games). The Bull had time to have his chauffeur drive him around most of southern California and saw all of L.A, Anaheim, Newport, Long Beach, and Laguna Beach. Here are a few observations that deal with business and these locations.
1. O.C people think they know what having money means.
- Am I the only one who thinks Beverly Hills and more specifically Rodeo Drive is more of a tourist attraction than any sort of high class living/shopping. Sure it is filled with 300 series BMW's from the aspiring musicians, and actors, but what makes this place so special. I realize they have a Versace, Armani, Chanel, Gucci, ect but so does Caesar's Palace and thats a fucking casino. One person even had the audacity to question the Bull as to whether throwing a pair of newly purchased 1,800 dollar Versace sunglasses into the trash was the "smart thing to do". Hey pal, 1,800 dollars or 18 cents, if the glasses can't stop the sun from bothering me then they are worthless. If these people had close to the money they thought they had they would never be questioning the Bull on some lousy pair of 1,800 dollar sunglasses.
- In Laguna Beach I saw five Lamborghini Reventon's driving down Laguna Avenue. It looked like a gay pride parade the way these cars were painted. The cars mixed pink,light green, yellow, light blue, ect into one big mess. It looked like these cars were taken right out of a matchbox kit. Then of course all five cars rev their V12's and take off, making sure everyone notices these pieces of shit. Clearly they were not from Laguna Beach(they have better taste in cars) but do these people think driving around 200,000 dollar cars is going to impress the Bull?
Going along with this, it seems every car in Southern Cal is either a Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, Infiniti, Range Rover, or a Ferrari, these are all nice cars but how many people want to own the 760I BWM before it becomes cliche? Driving a Beamer down there is like driving a Camry in Kansas, everyone does it. Time to upgrade. The only one impressive car I saw the entire time was a Bentley Convertible 2008.
- Visited the site of the "most expensive real estate in the world" otherwise known as Newport Beach. 3.6 million dollars for a little shack on the ocean. I am sure 99.999% of tourists are astonished when they see those prices but that hardly pays for the kitchen in the Bulls residence.
2. The "greatest financial mind in L.A".
- The Bull was listening to the radio as he cruised around Compton listening to a radio financial host who billed himself as the "greatest financial mind in L.A". Now I will agree that there is not a single intelligent person in L.A when it comes to business so being the "greatest" is hardly an accomplishment but allow me to share some of the questions and answers that were given.(These are 100% true)
A. "Where do you see the stock market going?"
- "Well Jim, I would NEVER predict where the stock market is going to go in the short term but in the long term it will go up.
B. "What do you mean by short term?"
- Well XXX, I believe that short term in the stock market is anywhere from 1 month to five years. NO ONE can predict what will happen in the short term but in 20 years I think the stock market will be higher than it is now.
C. "Where do you see Oil prices going?"
- Well, once again I would NEVER predict where oil will go short term since NO ONE knows, but obviously over time it will go up. I think gas prices will continue to rise.
D. "Where would you have your money right now for the short term"(The Bull swears this answer is real)
- Well...pause.....I think a lot of people are mad at the stock market right now. And I don't blame them. The stock market is only for the long term so I would not own stocks, instead I would have some money in a CD and "SOME IN A MUTUAL FUND".
E. "Come on now, don't you think saying that it is impossible to predict the stock market in a 5 year term basis is going to far. There are people on TV giving daily picks who seem to be experts"
- Look, ANYONE who tells you that they can predict the stock market and give daily picks is a CON-ARTIST. NO ONE knows what tomorrow will bring and no one ever will.
Sadly, the Bull only caught the last 25-30 minutes of the "greatest financial mind in LA's" show but it got the Bull to thinking. What if the Bull went on Larry King Live one night and answered questions for an hour? Surely the Bull would be laughed at but when the Bull's predictions started to become true would he become a cult hero? Yes he would but the Bull loves being anonymous. The Bull is a modest guy after all.
But wouldn't it be great if someone just said "I see oil dropping to the 103-104 range int eh next 7-8 days, I think it will then linger for about two weeks before dropping to sub 100 numbers. But after a month of going from 97-105 it will jump all the way up to 125 by mid June." or if someone said "The Stock market will finish the year at 13,865 given current conditions, if Bernanke does the correct moves we could finish up to 14,786 give or take 20 points and at worse we finish at 13,278. What if the Bull went mainstream? What if the Bull disclosed who he was? What if the Bull showed his DIVINE wisdom?
For that we will never know, but what I do know is that i have some picks for the rest of the day.
At this very minute it is 11:06 Eastern Time.
7 Picks:
1. CTZN - 9.53 - I have merger hopes of this stock.
2. IMB - 5.32 - Should receive good news about mortgage and lending today.
3. ASTI(also like ASTIZ) - 9.11 - In talks with new underwriters, stock should be up much more than it is. Maybe even 10-15% more than it is.
4. CSK - 3.98 - Just saw on CNBC a story on the stock, should see a jump due to the coverage and the news on stock. Will not last, get in and get out.
5. STP - 35.88 - Another Solar play, all solars are up 10-15% today and yet this stock is barely up. Should jump with the rest.
6. MTH - 19.52 - Another mortgage company that is going to be bailed out. Also got upgraded today but no real large spike yet.
7. COIN - 9.78
The Bull
The Bull was out in the City of Smog(otherwise known as L.A) this past week on business(looking at properties and investments) and pleasure(NCAA regional basketball games). The Bull had time to have his chauffeur drive him around most of southern California and saw all of L.A, Anaheim, Newport, Long Beach, and Laguna Beach. Here are a few observations that deal with business and these locations.
1. O.C people think they know what having money means.
- Am I the only one who thinks Beverly Hills and more specifically Rodeo Drive is more of a tourist attraction than any sort of high class living/shopping. Sure it is filled with 300 series BMW's from the aspiring musicians, and actors, but what makes this place so special. I realize they have a Versace, Armani, Chanel, Gucci, ect but so does Caesar's Palace and thats a fucking casino. One person even had the audacity to question the Bull as to whether throwing a pair of newly purchased 1,800 dollar Versace sunglasses into the trash was the "smart thing to do". Hey pal, 1,800 dollars or 18 cents, if the glasses can't stop the sun from bothering me then they are worthless. If these people had close to the money they thought they had they would never be questioning the Bull on some lousy pair of 1,800 dollar sunglasses.
- In Laguna Beach I saw five Lamborghini Reventon's driving down Laguna Avenue. It looked like a gay pride parade the way these cars were painted. The cars mixed pink,light green, yellow, light blue, ect into one big mess. It looked like these cars were taken right out of a matchbox kit. Then of course all five cars rev their V12's and take off, making sure everyone notices these pieces of shit. Clearly they were not from Laguna Beach(they have better taste in cars) but do these people think driving around 200,000 dollar cars is going to impress the Bull?
Going along with this, it seems every car in Southern Cal is either a Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, Infiniti, Range Rover, or a Ferrari, these are all nice cars but how many people want to own the 760I BWM before it becomes cliche? Driving a Beamer down there is like driving a Camry in Kansas, everyone does it. Time to upgrade. The only one impressive car I saw the entire time was a Bentley Convertible 2008.
- Visited the site of the "most expensive real estate in the world" otherwise known as Newport Beach. 3.6 million dollars for a little shack on the ocean. I am sure 99.999% of tourists are astonished when they see those prices but that hardly pays for the kitchen in the Bulls residence.
2. The "greatest financial mind in L.A".
- The Bull was listening to the radio as he cruised around Compton listening to a radio financial host who billed himself as the "greatest financial mind in L.A". Now I will agree that there is not a single intelligent person in L.A when it comes to business so being the "greatest" is hardly an accomplishment but allow me to share some of the questions and answers that were given.(These are 100% true)
A. "Where do you see the stock market going?"
- "Well Jim, I would NEVER predict where the stock market is going to go in the short term but in the long term it will go up.
B. "What do you mean by short term?"
- Well XXX, I believe that short term in the stock market is anywhere from 1 month to five years. NO ONE can predict what will happen in the short term but in 20 years I think the stock market will be higher than it is now.
C. "Where do you see Oil prices going?"
- Well, once again I would NEVER predict where oil will go short term since NO ONE knows, but obviously over time it will go up. I think gas prices will continue to rise.
D. "Where would you have your money right now for the short term"(The Bull swears this answer is real)
- Well...pause.....I think a lot of people are mad at the stock market right now. And I don't blame them. The stock market is only for the long term so I would not own stocks, instead I would have some money in a CD and "SOME IN A MUTUAL FUND".
E. "Come on now, don't you think saying that it is impossible to predict the stock market in a 5 year term basis is going to far. There are people on TV giving daily picks who seem to be experts"
- Look, ANYONE who tells you that they can predict the stock market and give daily picks is a CON-ARTIST. NO ONE knows what tomorrow will bring and no one ever will.
Sadly, the Bull only caught the last 25-30 minutes of the "greatest financial mind in LA's" show but it got the Bull to thinking. What if the Bull went on Larry King Live one night and answered questions for an hour? Surely the Bull would be laughed at but when the Bull's predictions started to become true would he become a cult hero? Yes he would but the Bull loves being anonymous. The Bull is a modest guy after all.
But wouldn't it be great if someone just said "I see oil dropping to the 103-104 range int eh next 7-8 days, I think it will then linger for about two weeks before dropping to sub 100 numbers. But after a month of going from 97-105 it will jump all the way up to 125 by mid June." or if someone said "The Stock market will finish the year at 13,865 given current conditions, if Bernanke does the correct moves we could finish up to 14,786 give or take 20 points and at worse we finish at 13,278. What if the Bull went mainstream? What if the Bull disclosed who he was? What if the Bull showed his DIVINE wisdom?
For that we will never know, but what I do know is that i have some picks for the rest of the day.
At this very minute it is 11:06 Eastern Time.
7 Picks:
1. CTZN - 9.53 - I have merger hopes of this stock.
2. IMB - 5.32 - Should receive good news about mortgage and lending today.
3. ASTI(also like ASTIZ) - 9.11 - In talks with new underwriters, stock should be up much more than it is. Maybe even 10-15% more than it is.
4. CSK - 3.98 - Just saw on CNBC a story on the stock, should see a jump due to the coverage and the news on stock. Will not last, get in and get out.
5. STP - 35.88 - Another Solar play, all solars are up 10-15% today and yet this stock is barely up. Should jump with the rest.
6. MTH - 19.52 - Another mortgage company that is going to be bailed out. Also got upgraded today but no real large spike yet.
7. COIN - 9.78
The Bull
Sunday, March 16, 2008
How the Bull would play tomorrow?
How can one expect to make money on a day the market will surely open AT LEAST 200 down?
One must realize that stocks are not the only thing that can be traded these days. There is commodity(future) trading, currency trading, ect.
I would get in many commodities early in the morning. Mainly Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, Corn, Wheat, and beans.
Secondly, curreny trading can make people huge money. While in the true sense of currency trading(as done on the FX) one has to "long" one currency and ""short" another. Imagine how one always hears how the Dollar is reaching new time lows against the EURO on a daily basis. One is shorting the dollar and longing the Euro to make money. The great thing is that these days you can trade curreny through ETF's. Most start with FX(letter) like FXM(Peso).
The Bull likes 5 currencies more than others. The Bull loves "The dong"(Vietnam), "Balboa" (Panama), Francs(Switzerland), Rand(South Africa), Reasis(Brazil). The Bull loves the Brazil and South African currenicies becuase these are emegering markets(Brazil still is) whose economies will nto slow in a world wide recession. They both have many natural resources to contribute and their technological advances are moving at rapid speed.
As for Panama, Signapore, and Switzerland. Many of the Bull's fans have heard of "offshore bank accounts". The connotation of the phrase screams "illegal", "tax fraud/tax evasion", "money laundering" ect. While these three countries certainly are targets for these illegal crimes because of a myriad of issues, their currencies hold their value as well as any in the world.
Without going into the great detail of the 1934 banking law and the influence of the Nazi's on the Swiss banking system, the basic way these countries work is that they assign each account a code name and a number. Unlike America, there is no name attached to these accounts(granted that at least in Switzerland, the top officers at the Bank know the names but many times refuse to cooperate). Signapore and Panama are having more and more foreign money invested in their banks and their econmies continue to grow. Switzerland has lost some money of late due to the American recession and a recent crackdown on illegal practices but all three of these countries will continue to gather large amounts of foreign money and will continue to grow and get stronger.
That is what the Bull would play tomorrow.
The Bull
One must realize that stocks are not the only thing that can be traded these days. There is commodity(future) trading, currency trading, ect.
I would get in many commodities early in the morning. Mainly Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, Corn, Wheat, and beans.
Secondly, curreny trading can make people huge money. While in the true sense of currency trading(as done on the FX) one has to "long" one currency and ""short" another. Imagine how one always hears how the Dollar is reaching new time lows against the EURO on a daily basis. One is shorting the dollar and longing the Euro to make money. The great thing is that these days you can trade curreny through ETF's. Most start with FX(letter) like FXM(Peso).
The Bull likes 5 currencies more than others. The Bull loves "The dong"(Vietnam), "Balboa" (Panama), Francs(Switzerland), Rand(South Africa), Reasis(Brazil). The Bull loves the Brazil and South African currenicies becuase these are emegering markets(Brazil still is) whose economies will nto slow in a world wide recession. They both have many natural resources to contribute and their technological advances are moving at rapid speed.
As for Panama, Signapore, and Switzerland. Many of the Bull's fans have heard of "offshore bank accounts". The connotation of the phrase screams "illegal", "tax fraud/tax evasion", "money laundering" ect. While these three countries certainly are targets for these illegal crimes because of a myriad of issues, their currencies hold their value as well as any in the world.
Without going into the great detail of the 1934 banking law and the influence of the Nazi's on the Swiss banking system, the basic way these countries work is that they assign each account a code name and a number. Unlike America, there is no name attached to these accounts(granted that at least in Switzerland, the top officers at the Bank know the names but many times refuse to cooperate). Signapore and Panama are having more and more foreign money invested in their banks and their econmies continue to grow. Switzerland has lost some money of late due to the American recession and a recent crackdown on illegal practices but all three of these countries will continue to gather large amounts of foreign money and will continue to grow and get stronger.
That is what the Bull would play tomorrow.
The Bull
The Bull goes Speechless
The Bull has seen a lot of things in his day but he has never seen something like the Bear Stearns collapse.
Their CEO comes out on saturday and tells everyone that everything is ok and that even though the stock has gone from 160 to 30 in less than a year that things are not that bad. Today the Wall Street Journal reports that JP(JPM) is buying 93% of common stock for Bear Stearns for 2 dollars per share. Yes TWO DOLLARS. Curreny stock price is 30 dollars. Turns out that Bear Stearns was going to go bankrupt and this was the best deal they could have gotten to try to "salvage" their company.
The Bull is the ultimate capitlist but this is a criminal act by Bear Stearns, the Fed, JP, ect. Why not release this news during regular stock hours? Why not give the "average" investor a chance to get out instead of just allowing the institutional buyers the only "real" chance. Why not suspend trading(happens with many companies on earnings or big announcments)? Of course they spew this shit about wanting to get it out for Asian Markets opening? Since when does the Fed work for Asia? Since when do we need to help Asian investors over our own investors?
The Market is not looking good for tomorrow. The futures are already down 190 which isn't that much but I don't think they will even stay that high. This market could soon become "a bear market" in its truest sense.
I wish you all the best,
The Bull
Their CEO comes out on saturday and tells everyone that everything is ok and that even though the stock has gone from 160 to 30 in less than a year that things are not that bad. Today the Wall Street Journal reports that JP(JPM) is buying 93% of common stock for Bear Stearns for 2 dollars per share. Yes TWO DOLLARS. Curreny stock price is 30 dollars. Turns out that Bear Stearns was going to go bankrupt and this was the best deal they could have gotten to try to "salvage" their company.
The Bull is the ultimate capitlist but this is a criminal act by Bear Stearns, the Fed, JP, ect. Why not release this news during regular stock hours? Why not give the "average" investor a chance to get out instead of just allowing the institutional buyers the only "real" chance. Why not suspend trading(happens with many companies on earnings or big announcments)? Of course they spew this shit about wanting to get it out for Asian Markets opening? Since when does the Fed work for Asia? Since when do we need to help Asian investors over our own investors?
The Market is not looking good for tomorrow. The futures are already down 190 which isn't that much but I don't think they will even stay that high. This market could soon become "a bear market" in its truest sense.
I wish you all the best,
The Bull
Monday, March 10, 2008
Some plays for tomorrow
I will make this real quick:
Earning Plays: DKS, KR and maybe PSS(other two in front of this). PSS scares me with FL dropping 9% today, i would look to have options on both sides.
Penny Stocks: BI, LSAL, SINJF, BWNR, OCHT, NGEN.
3% Gainers club: CREE, JNPR, IMCLE, KELYA, CTRS, NVDM.
Will post tomorrow with a quality post and look at stock market.
Also, I stand buy TITN and ICE. I think it is still a good time to get in.
The JR Bull likes KERX on a comeback tomorrow.
The Bull
Earning Plays: DKS, KR and maybe PSS(other two in front of this). PSS scares me with FL dropping 9% today, i would look to have options on both sides.
Penny Stocks: BI, LSAL, SINJF, BWNR, OCHT, NGEN.
3% Gainers club: CREE, JNPR, IMCLE, KELYA, CTRS, NVDM.
Will post tomorrow with a quality post and look at stock market.
Also, I stand buy TITN and ICE. I think it is still a good time to get in.
The JR Bull likes KERX on a comeback tomorrow.
The Bull
Sunday, March 9, 2008
The Bull Returns.....
The Bull returns from his voyage over seas to a market that is at epic lows, a world in which the Bears are convincing even the most staunch Bulls to become bears. The Bull looks around and he hears people crying about this stock market, crying about how companies that have no business going lower are dropping to 52 week lows, crying about how the bears are making money and how the "average guy" can't compete with the Wall Street gang of thieves, crying about how they have to put their money into CD's or even some Bulls who have started to invest in mutual funds. Do people believe mutual funds are any safer than just picking stocks out of a hat? Mutual funds are pre-dominantly made up of all stocks, and almost always on the long side, isn't this what people are trying to get away from?
Well, luckily the Bull lives in his own realm. The business trip was of the utmost success. The Bull looks at this market and thinks "God DAMN, how lucky I am to see these prices". The JR Bull(Tits and Ass or TA if you will) coined it best when he said "another down day over here in America, got to love it, these prices are at lows that we will only dream about in 6 months". That is what makes Tits and Ass the Junior Bull.
The Bull has read some recent criticisms from "competing"(I use that term loosely) and other blogs that attack the Bull.
1. "The Bull names himself the Bull yet makes picks that are rather bearish"
- The Bull is a self-described "Agnostic opportunist". The connotation of the word Bull in the kingdom of money is "making money, prosperous, and optimistic". That is why I call myself the Bull. The Bull makes bearish picks? You think the Bull made it to where he is today by claiming BUY BUY BUY is the way to go? The Bull is always Bullish, but to be a Bull you must punish companies that do a poor job of being Bullish. Therefore, when the Bull says buy PUTS on TMA, he is not doing it because he wants to be a bear, but he is doing it since bulls should not pay the price for this companies illogical leadership but rather reap the rewards of it. Call that bearish, I call it being an opportunist.
2. "How his idiotic readers cant seem to figure out the Bull has them buy his stocks and then he sells them and makes a lot of money while they lose money"
- The Bulls readers are mostly small time(money wise) investors. They have no ability to make stocks or options move. Also, my picks tend to go up over time, not just a one day boost. Simply irresponsible to make this argument against the Bull.
3. "Anyone who follows the Bull is playing with fire, you might Reap some early rewards but in the end you Reap what you sow and it wont be pretty........It is always smartest to get into Indexes or mutual funds, no risk and all reward".
- Enjoy your mutual funds which are on average down double digits this year, and the Bull will enjoy his millions.
4. "The Bull just throws out random picks, he doesn't explain why or explain investing basics"
- If you want a book on how to click a mouse button to buy a stock, I would suggest the masterpiece "I am a dumbfuck" written by The Bear. I guess I do pretty well for random picks.
5. Best one - "Does anyone really think this ***** kow shwat he is doing? Surely they don't, the guy is a BEEPING(censored) idiot.
- This is from a blog solely set up to go against my picks and to keep track of them. I see they stopped keeping track of my picks after three days and don't include options in any of the tallies. They also only now have a top 5 list of my worst stock picks(worst one is down 12% for the year).
Anyway, where does the Bull want people to be investing:
1. If you are not short in TMA after my suggesting of getting some puts in it, get some puts in it for tomorrow!!!
2. JRT, ICE, TITN - All picks from JR Bull's that I like. ICE is attractive at these prices and its recent pull back. It should be in the 160's at current valuation and if the NYSE ever decides to smart up it is a potential buyout opportunity. JRT is in its usual 3 month cycle of going from 8-12 dollars. The stock tried to move up on Friday but was brought down by the Bears. If we see a day in green this stock could fly about 7-10%. TITN is looking nice on its recent pullback. Enjoy, load up, dump, and over and over.
3. Penny stocks I love are FMT off of 31% drop, should be able to rebound some of that back. ATPL with a limit sell at 28 or 29 cents, try to get it to jump to 35 cents(up 5 cents). And my favorite Penny play is THN with a limit sell close to its current price.
4. Stock for a possible 3-5% gain on just tomorrow due to trading principles and the usual response: SCON, CREE, APOL, KELYA.
5. Citigroup (C) - At 20 bucks this stock is a freaking steal. Not saying its a great one day play but it will be back to 30 in time.
6. Earnings tomorrow: Always a risky game but if I had to play some it would be EVEP(energy), DDS(Dillards) - retail has been stomping earnings so far, FL(footlocker) - same as Dillards, and if you want to get aggressive and life life look at RDEA, ROHI, and HOV.
7. Option Plays: SPPI - Up huge in after hours because their first ever FDA drug has been approved. It deals with Bone Cancer, I think this stock should double in time and therefore look at May or June CALLS. I think the May 08 5.00 dollar strike price call on it for 10 cents is generous. This does mean the stock must double to be in the money but I feel this is a great play. A safer and maybe smarter play albeit does not offer same reward is the 2.50 Call for 55 cents per share.
BBI - Had a great quarter and the stock still drops, they continue to get better and will continue to gain market share. Another low priced long term play(long term for the Bull that is) I love the APRIL 08 call at 5.00 strike price for 5 cents per share, also like the 2.50 strike price for 60 cents per share that is already in the money(stock at 2.90) after hours.
Shorting: Continue to short Home builders, financials, commerical real estate, and of course XLB.
Couple finishing points:
1. Whisper Numbers were explained by someone in the comments pretty well. They are estimates for companies earnings that "insiders" use to pass around, now people "pass them" around online and average them out. They have proved to be 100% more accurate(meaning if estimate is 1 dollar, whispers and 50 cents and the actual is 0 cents, then the whispers beat it by 100%).
2. Tits and Ass had the line of the week, when someone was talking about Goldman Sachs(GS) he said this "Goldman? I could work at Goldman if I wanted to, they don't know how to make money, all they are is a bunch of salesman, that's it, nothing else, nothing more, salesmen!". How proud the Bull is.
THE BULL
Well, luckily the Bull lives in his own realm. The business trip was of the utmost success. The Bull looks at this market and thinks "God DAMN, how lucky I am to see these prices". The JR Bull(Tits and Ass or TA if you will) coined it best when he said "another down day over here in America, got to love it, these prices are at lows that we will only dream about in 6 months". That is what makes Tits and Ass the Junior Bull.
The Bull has read some recent criticisms from "competing"(I use that term loosely) and other blogs that attack the Bull.
1. "The Bull names himself the Bull yet makes picks that are rather bearish"
- The Bull is a self-described "Agnostic opportunist". The connotation of the word Bull in the kingdom of money is "making money, prosperous, and optimistic". That is why I call myself the Bull. The Bull makes bearish picks? You think the Bull made it to where he is today by claiming BUY BUY BUY is the way to go? The Bull is always Bullish, but to be a Bull you must punish companies that do a poor job of being Bullish. Therefore, when the Bull says buy PUTS on TMA, he is not doing it because he wants to be a bear, but he is doing it since bulls should not pay the price for this companies illogical leadership but rather reap the rewards of it. Call that bearish, I call it being an opportunist.
2. "How his idiotic readers cant seem to figure out the Bull has them buy his stocks and then he sells them and makes a lot of money while they lose money"
- The Bulls readers are mostly small time(money wise) investors. They have no ability to make stocks or options move. Also, my picks tend to go up over time, not just a one day boost. Simply irresponsible to make this argument against the Bull.
3. "Anyone who follows the Bull is playing with fire, you might Reap some early rewards but in the end you Reap what you sow and it wont be pretty........It is always smartest to get into Indexes or mutual funds, no risk and all reward".
- Enjoy your mutual funds which are on average down double digits this year, and the Bull will enjoy his millions.
4. "The Bull just throws out random picks, he doesn't explain why or explain investing basics"
- If you want a book on how to click a mouse button to buy a stock, I would suggest the masterpiece "I am a dumbfuck" written by The Bear. I guess I do pretty well for random picks.
5. Best one - "Does anyone really think this ***** kow shwat he is doing? Surely they don't, the guy is a BEEPING(censored) idiot.
- This is from a blog solely set up to go against my picks and to keep track of them. I see they stopped keeping track of my picks after three days and don't include options in any of the tallies. They also only now have a top 5 list of my worst stock picks(worst one is down 12% for the year).
Anyway, where does the Bull want people to be investing:
1. If you are not short in TMA after my suggesting of getting some puts in it, get some puts in it for tomorrow!!!
2. JRT, ICE, TITN - All picks from JR Bull's that I like. ICE is attractive at these prices and its recent pull back. It should be in the 160's at current valuation and if the NYSE ever decides to smart up it is a potential buyout opportunity. JRT is in its usual 3 month cycle of going from 8-12 dollars. The stock tried to move up on Friday but was brought down by the Bears. If we see a day in green this stock could fly about 7-10%. TITN is looking nice on its recent pullback. Enjoy, load up, dump, and over and over.
3. Penny stocks I love are FMT off of 31% drop, should be able to rebound some of that back. ATPL with a limit sell at 28 or 29 cents, try to get it to jump to 35 cents(up 5 cents). And my favorite Penny play is THN with a limit sell close to its current price.
4. Stock for a possible 3-5% gain on just tomorrow due to trading principles and the usual response: SCON, CREE, APOL, KELYA.
5. Citigroup (C) - At 20 bucks this stock is a freaking steal. Not saying its a great one day play but it will be back to 30 in time.
6. Earnings tomorrow: Always a risky game but if I had to play some it would be EVEP(energy), DDS(Dillards) - retail has been stomping earnings so far, FL(footlocker) - same as Dillards, and if you want to get aggressive and life life look at RDEA, ROHI, and HOV.
7. Option Plays: SPPI - Up huge in after hours because their first ever FDA drug has been approved. It deals with Bone Cancer, I think this stock should double in time and therefore look at May or June CALLS. I think the May 08 5.00 dollar strike price call on it for 10 cents is generous. This does mean the stock must double to be in the money but I feel this is a great play. A safer and maybe smarter play albeit does not offer same reward is the 2.50 Call for 55 cents per share.
BBI - Had a great quarter and the stock still drops, they continue to get better and will continue to gain market share. Another low priced long term play(long term for the Bull that is) I love the APRIL 08 call at 5.00 strike price for 5 cents per share, also like the 2.50 strike price for 60 cents per share that is already in the money(stock at 2.90) after hours.
Shorting: Continue to short Home builders, financials, commerical real estate, and of course XLB.
Couple finishing points:
1. Whisper Numbers were explained by someone in the comments pretty well. They are estimates for companies earnings that "insiders" use to pass around, now people "pass them" around online and average them out. They have proved to be 100% more accurate(meaning if estimate is 1 dollar, whispers and 50 cents and the actual is 0 cents, then the whispers beat it by 100%).
2. Tits and Ass had the line of the week, when someone was talking about Goldman Sachs(GS) he said this "Goldman? I could work at Goldman if I wanted to, they don't know how to make money, all they are is a bunch of salesman, that's it, nothing else, nothing more, salesmen!". How proud the Bull is.
THE BULL
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Bull will be out of town on Business until Sunday Night
Dear Bulls,
The Bull will be out of the country until Sunday night. A pressing business venture has presented itself and it is critical the Bull leaves on Business tonight. I am leaving in an hour on my private jet and plan to be back by Sunday night for a post.
My apologies,
The Bull
The Bull will be out of the country until Sunday night. A pressing business venture has presented itself and it is critical the Bull leaves on Business tonight. I am leaving in an hour on my private jet and plan to be back by Sunday night for a post.
My apologies,
The Bull
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Picks for tomorrrow
Options:
I realize most of you don't like them so I will just add one I saw on fast money tonight and did some research on.
I think XLB should be shorted but I would short it with May Puts.
Shorting:
Some of you like to short,
I would also short POZN, it is a drug company that is overvalued as we speak, got a big drug coming up on the 15th of April but I think the FDA will reject(just my opinion due to companies past performance) but seems like the stock is valued at the price it should be at if the drug is passed.
Comeback play:
1. GOOG - I think Google is near or at bottom. Could be a nice short term buy or long term buy. Does not mean its going up 10% tomorrow but nice play for a month.
2. NYX - Cramer picks it as his stock of the year a year ago, and the stock plumments before coming back. Now the stock has plummented again. I think it will go back to 90-100 in the next month or so but could have nice bounce on any sort of green day tomorrow.
3. COST - Report earnings tomorrow morning, I love COST to start with an there seem to be some big time buyers getting in on some calls for march and april that are "out of the money". Risky play sure but could be a nice start to tomorrow, also look for BJ tomorrow morning, another retailer that reports. They are direct competitors so one might go up and one might go down. COST has beat them of late but could this be the time BJ takes it from them?
4. APAC - My stock for the competition that actually led the race by 2% at the end of last week has dropped 20%, time for a bounce back? I am betting on it.
Best of luck tomorrow Bulls.
Also, please don't comment on sexual, racist or anything else that seems outside of the stock world. It truly does take away from the legitamacy of the blog and makes just not me, but all of the readers and commentors seem like racist pigs. I realize people want to have fun and talk about how they hate bulls and whatnot but I think we all know the fine line. Thank you so much.
The Bull
I realize most of you don't like them so I will just add one I saw on fast money tonight and did some research on.
I think XLB should be shorted but I would short it with May Puts.
Shorting:
Some of you like to short,
I would also short POZN, it is a drug company that is overvalued as we speak, got a big drug coming up on the 15th of April but I think the FDA will reject(just my opinion due to companies past performance) but seems like the stock is valued at the price it should be at if the drug is passed.
Comeback play:
1. GOOG - I think Google is near or at bottom. Could be a nice short term buy or long term buy. Does not mean its going up 10% tomorrow but nice play for a month.
2. NYX - Cramer picks it as his stock of the year a year ago, and the stock plumments before coming back. Now the stock has plummented again. I think it will go back to 90-100 in the next month or so but could have nice bounce on any sort of green day tomorrow.
3. COST - Report earnings tomorrow morning, I love COST to start with an there seem to be some big time buyers getting in on some calls for march and april that are "out of the money". Risky play sure but could be a nice start to tomorrow, also look for BJ tomorrow morning, another retailer that reports. They are direct competitors so one might go up and one might go down. COST has beat them of late but could this be the time BJ takes it from them?
4. APAC - My stock for the competition that actually led the race by 2% at the end of last week has dropped 20%, time for a bounce back? I am betting on it.
Best of luck tomorrow Bulls.
Also, please don't comment on sexual, racist or anything else that seems outside of the stock world. It truly does take away from the legitamacy of the blog and makes just not me, but all of the readers and commentors seem like racist pigs. I realize people want to have fun and talk about how they hate bulls and whatnot but I think we all know the fine line. Thank you so much.
The Bull
The Bull Responds
Lets get to the mailbag;
Anonymous Melanie said...
I know this is dumb but could you just go over like limit orders and other things like that?
- Melanie,
Market order: An order to buy or sell a stock at the current market price. This means that no matter what you will get the stock you want but you may get it at a much higher price than you originally wanted. One of the Bull's ten commandments is never use market orders.
Limit order: If a Limit Buy then you receive the stock at or below the price you entered as your limit order, if the price is above what you put in, then you do not receive the stock. If a limit sell than you only sell if the stock is at or above the price you set in for a limit sell.
Stop-Limit Order: Once the stop price is reached, the stop-limit order becomes a limit order to buy or to sell at a specified price.
Day Orders(sometimes call Duration Order): Unless you give your broker specific instructions to the contrary, orders to buy or sell a stock are "day orders," meaning they are good only during that trading day.
If there are any more Melanie, just let the Bull know.
Anonymous Rob said...
ok, what the fuck is a 130/30 strategy, i even tried to find it online but it makes no sense
Rob, this is something you will never need to know but here is the most simplistic way to understand 130/30. You find an index you like, for this we will take the SP 500, you then invest 100% into the SP 500 with shorting 30% of the stocks you think will fare worst in the SP 500, then you take the proceeds from the shorted stocks and invest them in the stocks you think will do best in the SP 500. It is more complicated than that but that is the basic understanding of it.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
what is P/E, like what does it mean, i realize its price per earnigs?
Anonymous, glad you asked this question because so many times it is used incorrectly. You hear people talk all the time how much a stock is trading compared to its earnings but what does it matter? In general, a high P/E means investors see the stock growing at a large rate in the future and a low P/E means investors see the stock not growing at all. But many times investors have it wrong. The best way to use P/E is to compare stocks within the same industry, outside of that there is little good for it for the novice trader.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
How would you trade google
Anonymous, I would get into GOOG. I think it has hit bottom. At worst take some late summer calls on it.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
how much value should i put into volatily, does it matter
Anonymous(no one likes leaving names?), not sure what you mean by volatility? If in the volume sense, it is best to buy stocks on low volume or high volume days since the stock is either usually to high or to low on those days. If you mean how to play a volatile stock I would recommend a "Long straddle" which you can see in more detail in my January post titled "ABK MBI ect".
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Bull,
Explain what the the indexes all are
Anonymous, indexes are nothing more than stock exchanges, it is where a person goes to trade a stock. Imagine a mall, on one end you might have Bloomingdales, on another Dicks Sporting Goods, both these places sell items that one pays for, Bloomindales sells upscale clothes and Dicks sells sporting goods. Well the Nasdaq sells "tech stocks" and the NYSE would be like a wallmart, a little of everything.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
whats a margin call?
Anonymous(names people names), Margin call really comes into play when one is to short a stock, you receive a margin call if one of your securities(stocks) went below a certain price level. For instance, I have 10,000 dollars in my account and I short stock A for 5,000 dollars at 100 dollars per share, but the stock goes to 500 dollars and now I owe 25,000 dollars, how do I pay that back? The broker will have a margin call on you before that happens to assure that this situation does not come up.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
I need some tech play help, is Garmin done like u said in another post or is there a shot they can come back?
Anonymous, I would be shorting Garmin.
There were also a lot of questions on option strategies. I will have a post detailing them at a future point in time.
Lets get to some picks from the Bull:
I want everyone of the Bulls disciples to be shorting PDLI. The stock is down 18% in after hours after it decided not to put itself up for sale. It is a huge mistake and I like this stock going lower. Get into March/April puts on it people. Will make you money tomorrow. I personally like the 12.50 put at 10 cent per share and the 15 dollar put at 35 cents for march 08. These will skyrocket tomorrow. Get in and Get rich.
I will give you five stocks for tomorrow later tonight.
Anonymous Melanie said...
I know this is dumb but could you just go over like limit orders and other things like that?
- Melanie,
Market order: An order to buy or sell a stock at the current market price. This means that no matter what you will get the stock you want but you may get it at a much higher price than you originally wanted. One of the Bull's ten commandments is never use market orders.
Limit order: If a Limit Buy then you receive the stock at or below the price you entered as your limit order, if the price is above what you put in, then you do not receive the stock. If a limit sell than you only sell if the stock is at or above the price you set in for a limit sell.
Stop-Limit Order: Once the stop price is reached, the stop-limit order becomes a limit order to buy or to sell at a specified price.
Day Orders(sometimes call Duration Order): Unless you give your broker specific instructions to the contrary, orders to buy or sell a stock are "day orders," meaning they are good only during that trading day.
If there are any more Melanie, just let the Bull know.
Anonymous Rob said...
ok, what the fuck is a 130/30 strategy, i even tried to find it online but it makes no sense
Rob, this is something you will never need to know but here is the most simplistic way to understand 130/30. You find an index you like, for this we will take the SP 500, you then invest 100% into the SP 500 with shorting 30% of the stocks you think will fare worst in the SP 500, then you take the proceeds from the shorted stocks and invest them in the stocks you think will do best in the SP 500. It is more complicated than that but that is the basic understanding of it.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
what is P/E, like what does it mean, i realize its price per earnigs?
Anonymous, glad you asked this question because so many times it is used incorrectly. You hear people talk all the time how much a stock is trading compared to its earnings but what does it matter? In general, a high P/E means investors see the stock growing at a large rate in the future and a low P/E means investors see the stock not growing at all. But many times investors have it wrong. The best way to use P/E is to compare stocks within the same industry, outside of that there is little good for it for the novice trader.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
How would you trade google
Anonymous, I would get into GOOG. I think it has hit bottom. At worst take some late summer calls on it.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
how much value should i put into volatily, does it matter
Anonymous(no one likes leaving names?), not sure what you mean by volatility? If in the volume sense, it is best to buy stocks on low volume or high volume days since the stock is either usually to high or to low on those days. If you mean how to play a volatile stock I would recommend a "Long straddle" which you can see in more detail in my January post titled "ABK MBI ect".
Anonymous Anonymous said...
Bull,
Explain what the the indexes all are
Anonymous, indexes are nothing more than stock exchanges, it is where a person goes to trade a stock. Imagine a mall, on one end you might have Bloomingdales, on another Dicks Sporting Goods, both these places sell items that one pays for, Bloomindales sells upscale clothes and Dicks sells sporting goods. Well the Nasdaq sells "tech stocks" and the NYSE would be like a wallmart, a little of everything.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
whats a margin call?
Anonymous(names people names), Margin call really comes into play when one is to short a stock, you receive a margin call if one of your securities(stocks) went below a certain price level. For instance, I have 10,000 dollars in my account and I short stock A for 5,000 dollars at 100 dollars per share, but the stock goes to 500 dollars and now I owe 25,000 dollars, how do I pay that back? The broker will have a margin call on you before that happens to assure that this situation does not come up.
Anonymous Anonymous said...
I need some tech play help, is Garmin done like u said in another post or is there a shot they can come back?
Anonymous, I would be shorting Garmin.
There were also a lot of questions on option strategies. I will have a post detailing them at a future point in time.
Lets get to some picks from the Bull:
I want everyone of the Bulls disciples to be shorting PDLI. The stock is down 18% in after hours after it decided not to put itself up for sale. It is a huge mistake and I like this stock going lower. Get into March/April puts on it people. Will make you money tomorrow. I personally like the 12.50 put at 10 cent per share and the 15 dollar put at 35 cents for march 08. These will skyrocket tomorrow. Get in and Get rich.
I will give you five stocks for tomorrow later tonight.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Questions for the Bull?
The Bull's Disciples,
The Bull was reading the Wall Street Journal this afternoon and there was an article on "the average person" and their "investment strategies and mistakes". After reading this article it struck the Bull that the Bull's job is just not to give his legion of fans picks but also teach them how to do scout out stocks and make their own picks. Therefore, the Bull would love his readers to submit questions they have about the market, whether it be "what does being long in a stock mean" or "Explain the disadvantages of a 130/30 strategy", all questions are welcomed.
To Big Daddy,
Investing with the worlds great investor is not lazy at all. There are two different Berkshire Hatha stocks which are BRK.A(the class A shares currently selling at 136,500 dollars) and BRK.B(the class B shares currently selling at 4,509 dollars). Buffet has taken the class A shares up around 7000% since he took over the company. I would prefer to see the company "split" the stock(2/1 to make the average share price around 65,000 dollars) but Buffet seems to be holding out on that idea. While the stock seems like a stable pick it is far from that, it had a huge year in 1997 when it jumped from 46,000 to 70,000 but it stayed around that value until 2005(88,000) which is only a 25.7% increase over a 7 year span. Of course Buffet seems to be a like wine, just keeps getting better with age and in the last two years the stock has jumped to as high as 151,000. I saw him on CNBC this morning saying the US is in a recession BUT that the market would come back and over time would destroy any other sort of investment. If you are in this for the long haul(5 years plus) then this is a great stock, if you are looking for quick gains then I might stay away.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119767697474830557.html?mod=b_hpp_9_0002_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_top
This is the famous article Barrons ran on Buffet a couple months ago forcing the stock to drop a large amount but the stock has surged back making many think Barrons has it wrong, but I think it is a good read with a strong push for a long term play.
Let the questions come people,
The Bull awaits
The Bull was reading the Wall Street Journal this afternoon and there was an article on "the average person" and their "investment strategies and mistakes". After reading this article it struck the Bull that the Bull's job is just not to give his legion of fans picks but also teach them how to do scout out stocks and make their own picks. Therefore, the Bull would love his readers to submit questions they have about the market, whether it be "what does being long in a stock mean" or "Explain the disadvantages of a 130/30 strategy", all questions are welcomed.
To Big Daddy,
Investing with the worlds great investor is not lazy at all. There are two different Berkshire Hatha stocks which are BRK.A(the class A shares currently selling at 136,500 dollars) and BRK.B(the class B shares currently selling at 4,509 dollars). Buffet has taken the class A shares up around 7000% since he took over the company. I would prefer to see the company "split" the stock(2/1 to make the average share price around 65,000 dollars) but Buffet seems to be holding out on that idea. While the stock seems like a stable pick it is far from that, it had a huge year in 1997 when it jumped from 46,000 to 70,000 but it stayed around that value until 2005(88,000) which is only a 25.7% increase over a 7 year span. Of course Buffet seems to be a like wine, just keeps getting better with age and in the last two years the stock has jumped to as high as 151,000. I saw him on CNBC this morning saying the US is in a recession BUT that the market would come back and over time would destroy any other sort of investment. If you are in this for the long haul(5 years plus) then this is a great stock, if you are looking for quick gains then I might stay away.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB119767697474830557.html?mod=b_hpp_9_0002_b_this_weeks_magazine_home_top
This is the famous article Barrons ran on Buffet a couple months ago forcing the stock to drop a large amount but the stock has surged back making many think Barrons has it wrong, but I think it is a good read with a strong push for a long term play.
Let the questions come people,
The Bull awaits
Sunday, March 2, 2008
The Bull Speaks
The Bull apologizes for his lack of posts of late. There have been so few this past week because the Bull will never give his disciples a "half-ass" pick or a "half-ass" post.
Let me begin by not avoiding the bloody obvious and addressing the comments from previous blog entries. The Bull is not from Kosovo and is not Admira, the Bull is not from the west coast and is not from the south. The Bull is not even close to 65 years old and the Bull would not be recognized walking down streets in almost all of America. So who is the Bull? Who is this hiding behind an anonymous blog giving stock picks that have seen 5,000 dollars turn into a million? What is the Bull hiding? Is the Bull Buffet, Ichan, or Soros. How does the Bull do it? How does the Bull know these stocks and when they will go up? How the hell does the Bull do it when the "experts on cnbc" can't seem to ever beat the market? What does the Bull know that 99.9999% of mutual funds do not know? Who is this Bull?
The truth is, the Bull is bigger than any one person. The Bull lives in a world that most people cannot come close to imagining. All human beings have huge dreams, but even the biggest dreams do not compare to the life the Bull lives. While mutual fund managers dream up making 12% a year for their clients, the Bull hopes to be up 12% by the time he wipes his ass from his 10 AM dump. People throw the terms "hedge fund guy", "big time exec at citi", "goldman ceo", "natural gas trader from Houston" but these names are nothing but a slap in the Bulls face. There are over 9,000 hedge funds in just the United States, do you really think there are 9,000 Bulls? Natural gas trader is the closest one yet since the Bull has been long in natural gas all year and has been reaping the rewards. But people, the Bull is not just some "hedge fund guy" or some "big shot at some big time investment bank", the Bull is only one thing, and that is he is the BULL!
The Bull has read criticisms on other blogs that while the Bull has been "unimaginably successful", his "trading tactics" are "basic intermediate trading strategies at best, and novice mundane lucky strategies that any 12 year old kid could conquer in a few weeks of study". There is a saying that compliments bounce off people but insults stick and that rings true with the Raging Bull. The Bull loves the success stories and compliments but the Bull is driven off of insults and criticism. If the Bull was universally worshiped like he should be then the Bull would never thrive as he has in his career.
Of course calling the Bull a "novice trader" looks past the point of this blog. The Bull doesn't like hedge fund and wall street people. It is these greedy "novices" who put us in the financial difficulties we are today. The Bull has to deal with these people enough in his daily life, the Bulls goal is to get the "novice" to beat the top hedge funds.
To all the Bulls critics; the Bull uses strategies in his everyday trading that even the most knowledgeable investor would most likely never understand. The Bull could sit here and rant and rave about how he made money off of "distressed securities" or how he made millions with a "Regulation D strategy" or how through "merger arbitrage" he bought his first Ferrari. The Bull could talk about hedge fund strategies such as "130-30", "F3", or could even go into his favorite strategy which deals with derivative arbitrages. But how does this relate to the Bull's readers, how does this help the guy on scottstrade who is trying to save for his children's college education? Would getting the Bull's readers to start trading with a 130-30 strategy really help them make money or confuse them to the point they thought it was a losing game? The Bull doesn't try to impress his readers through using terms they would never understand, the Bull impresses his readers by helping them make money!
The Bull would love to continue on with this historic speech to his disciples but due to the time of the evening and the need to get some picks to the legion of fans I will cut it short but the Bull will be back with more tomorrow.
To get you held over, here is a pick from Tits and Ass himself which the Bull fully approves of
1. ETFC(E-Trade) - This one is from "Tits and Ass", he loves the new CEO and loves his track record. Tits and Ass also has rumored information that there is heavy "institutional buying" into this stock with anticipation of a run to anywhere from 5.50-7 dollar price range by weeks end. Tits and Ass gives this his full backing and the Bull supports it as well.
Let me begin by not avoiding the bloody obvious and addressing the comments from previous blog entries. The Bull is not from Kosovo and is not Admira, the Bull is not from the west coast and is not from the south. The Bull is not even close to 65 years old and the Bull would not be recognized walking down streets in almost all of America. So who is the Bull? Who is this hiding behind an anonymous blog giving stock picks that have seen 5,000 dollars turn into a million? What is the Bull hiding? Is the Bull Buffet, Ichan, or Soros. How does the Bull do it? How does the Bull know these stocks and when they will go up? How the hell does the Bull do it when the "experts on cnbc" can't seem to ever beat the market? What does the Bull know that 99.9999% of mutual funds do not know? Who is this Bull?
The truth is, the Bull is bigger than any one person. The Bull lives in a world that most people cannot come close to imagining. All human beings have huge dreams, but even the biggest dreams do not compare to the life the Bull lives. While mutual fund managers dream up making 12% a year for their clients, the Bull hopes to be up 12% by the time he wipes his ass from his 10 AM dump. People throw the terms "hedge fund guy", "big time exec at citi", "goldman ceo", "natural gas trader from Houston" but these names are nothing but a slap in the Bulls face. There are over 9,000 hedge funds in just the United States, do you really think there are 9,000 Bulls? Natural gas trader is the closest one yet since the Bull has been long in natural gas all year and has been reaping the rewards. But people, the Bull is not just some "hedge fund guy" or some "big shot at some big time investment bank", the Bull is only one thing, and that is he is the BULL!
The Bull has read criticisms on other blogs that while the Bull has been "unimaginably successful", his "trading tactics" are "basic intermediate trading strategies at best, and novice mundane lucky strategies that any 12 year old kid could conquer in a few weeks of study". There is a saying that compliments bounce off people but insults stick and that rings true with the Raging Bull. The Bull loves the success stories and compliments but the Bull is driven off of insults and criticism. If the Bull was universally worshiped like he should be then the Bull would never thrive as he has in his career.
Of course calling the Bull a "novice trader" looks past the point of this blog. The Bull doesn't like hedge fund and wall street people. It is these greedy "novices" who put us in the financial difficulties we are today. The Bull has to deal with these people enough in his daily life, the Bulls goal is to get the "novice" to beat the top hedge funds.
To all the Bulls critics; the Bull uses strategies in his everyday trading that even the most knowledgeable investor would most likely never understand. The Bull could sit here and rant and rave about how he made money off of "distressed securities" or how he made millions with a "Regulation D strategy" or how through "merger arbitrage" he bought his first Ferrari. The Bull could talk about hedge fund strategies such as "130-30", "F3", or could even go into his favorite strategy which deals with derivative arbitrages. But how does this relate to the Bull's readers, how does this help the guy on scottstrade who is trying to save for his children's college education? Would getting the Bull's readers to start trading with a 130-30 strategy really help them make money or confuse them to the point they thought it was a losing game? The Bull doesn't try to impress his readers through using terms they would never understand, the Bull impresses his readers by helping them make money!
The Bull would love to continue on with this historic speech to his disciples but due to the time of the evening and the need to get some picks to the legion of fans I will cut it short but the Bull will be back with more tomorrow.
To get you held over, here is a pick from Tits and Ass himself which the Bull fully approves of
1. ETFC(E-Trade) - This one is from "Tits and Ass", he loves the new CEO and loves his track record. Tits and Ass also has rumored information that there is heavy "institutional buying" into this stock with anticipation of a run to anywhere from 5.50-7 dollar price range by weeks end. Tits and Ass gives this his full backing and the Bull supports it as well.
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