Tech Earnings

This entry is in response to a comment about how I see earnings going with the Tech giants.

Let me first say I think Microsoft is the smart tech play. Last quarter, MSFT beat earnings expectations by 6 cents, sales estimates by a billion and they offered upside guidance – a “perfect quarter” you might say. And on top of the fundamentals and pristine balance sheet – that boasts $21.57 billion in cash – there are some upcoming catalysts that could boost the stock: Windows Server 2008, Service Pack 1 for Vista and maybe even a bigger buyback with that pool of money Microsoft has.I would get in here before they report earnings on Jan 24th(Thursday).

Verdict: Beat earnings, goes to 35 at least.

Apple: Apple has way to low of expectations but this is from their usual misguiding forecasts. I think the Ipods miss and miss big but poeople are overworrying about the I-phone numbers that were released at mac world, those numbers are spread out among 3 quarters and the last two quarters were both great. The key is that the MAC has done very well during christmas and will guide Apple into thrashing earnings. What scares me is their innate ability to sandbag when it comes to forecasting, Jobs likes to play conservative and then have an average quarter and feel good about himself.

Verdict: Ability for After hours: Buy in if down on the day, sell on good numbers before forecast is relseased, No After hours: stay way.

Ebay: Release earnings on the 23rd. I think they report anywhere from 45-48 cents per share(estimates are 41), but guidance scares me again.

Verdict: With CEO stepping down and market in recession, I would stay away.

Microsoft: Release earnings on Thursday the 24th, I believe Vista and X-box sales will be up but more importantly I think that international sales will sky rocket.

Verdict: Get in before earnings. The MDM believes in this stock and therefore so do I.