To my legion of fans,
The Bull has been running with the GODS the last few weeks. All of the texts, phone calls and emails did not reach the Bull in the heavens above but the Bull is back and ready to make this summer one to remember.
Market looks like it is back in epic trouble. Financials are getting hammered, the housing market is taking a turn for the worse yet again, gas continues to rise to record highs and the bears are declaring victory.
But the Bull is back and prepared for this perpetual battle with the bears.
The Bears say the Financials are dead and to short them. The Bull says GS is a buy before Tuesday mornings earnings and that Morgan Stanley is going to surprise. The Bears point to Lehman and Wachovia getting rid of their leadership as a sign of disastrous times, I see this as a way of getting rid of the bears and reloading the leadership with some Bulls.
The Bull loves the housing names out there today. The dollar is gaining and American is getting stronger. When America gets back on its feet after these terrible few months(and America Will RISE AGAIN) the housing market will go on a tear that sees houses being built as fast as Jesus rebuilt the Temple in three days.
The Bull continues to promote his two legendary horses JRCC and TITN. JRCC continues to go to new heights going from 3.50 to 49 dollars in a span of less than a year. Titan also continues to follow the rainbow to the pot of gold and will crush earnings yet again.
The Bull is back from the heavens and ready to make a run for the ages!
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Thursday, May 22, 2008
A day in the life of the Bull
Bulls,
Today was yet another magical day for the Bull. He held on only 8 American stocks to begin the day and only made 2 sells and 2 buys throughout the day. Here is what the day looked like.
The Bull held starting the day.
1. MA - Long time position of the Bull, feels it is the best of the breed and the best house on a good street you might say.
2. ARIA - As you all know, Bull likes this company and their cancer research.
3. C - As you all know again, Bull has many call options on it. Stock has been hit late for a myriad of reasons and the Bull feels a run back up is in order.
4. AMR - Bull's airline for merger talks.
5. GOLF - Look at yesterdays blog
6. JRCC - Look at yesterdays blog.
7. TITN - Loyal readers will know the Bull and all his comrades are high on this gem.
8. ESLR - Should have written about this one. It was clear ESLR or SOLF were going to get the huge contract as reported all over the web. The easy play was to long and short both with sells and covers of 2% move on both. ESLR got the contract.
The Bull then sold GOLF at 2.03 today after receiving word from the Junior Bull that DKS being 18.9% down was a buy. The Bull got lucky and waited until he saw some movement up and got in right as the stock crossed being 20% down. Came back to make the Bull some quick money.
The Junior Bull again struck when he informed the Bull that RCH was 15% down and poised for a short run back up. The BUll dug into his inventory(remember no great trader ever has all his money on the table) and bought RCH and got another quick 5% gain.
These two moves by the Junior BUll show that sometimes a great trader has to throw out the valuations and numbers of a stock and trade on the principles of being "over bought" and "oversold". Many times stocks that have terrible premarket news drop huge at the open but then come back. While they don't seem to come back because to many 26% down is the same as 31% down don't be fooled. There is great money to be made by doing nothing more than limiting the downside and having unlimited upside.
The Bull would love to write more but he has an early morning full of business.
God Bless,
The Bull
Today was yet another magical day for the Bull. He held on only 8 American stocks to begin the day and only made 2 sells and 2 buys throughout the day. Here is what the day looked like.
The Bull held starting the day.
1. MA - Long time position of the Bull, feels it is the best of the breed and the best house on a good street you might say.
2. ARIA - As you all know, Bull likes this company and their cancer research.
3. C - As you all know again, Bull has many call options on it. Stock has been hit late for a myriad of reasons and the Bull feels a run back up is in order.
4. AMR - Bull's airline for merger talks.
5. GOLF - Look at yesterdays blog
6. JRCC - Look at yesterdays blog.
7. TITN - Loyal readers will know the Bull and all his comrades are high on this gem.
8. ESLR - Should have written about this one. It was clear ESLR or SOLF were going to get the huge contract as reported all over the web. The easy play was to long and short both with sells and covers of 2% move on both. ESLR got the contract.
The Bull then sold GOLF at 2.03 today after receiving word from the Junior Bull that DKS being 18.9% down was a buy. The Bull got lucky and waited until he saw some movement up and got in right as the stock crossed being 20% down. Came back to make the Bull some quick money.
The Junior Bull again struck when he informed the Bull that RCH was 15% down and poised for a short run back up. The BUll dug into his inventory(remember no great trader ever has all his money on the table) and bought RCH and got another quick 5% gain.
These two moves by the Junior BUll show that sometimes a great trader has to throw out the valuations and numbers of a stock and trade on the principles of being "over bought" and "oversold". Many times stocks that have terrible premarket news drop huge at the open but then come back. While they don't seem to come back because to many 26% down is the same as 31% down don't be fooled. There is great money to be made by doing nothing more than limiting the downside and having unlimited upside.
The Bull would love to write more but he has an early morning full of business.
God Bless,
The Bull
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
A lesson the Bull learned
Even the Bull learns a lesson every now and then. The great theoriests of investing have always proclaimed that it is best to go against public setiment and rather go by the fundamentals and while there is no doubt that this strategy is the only intelligent and profitable one in the long term, it is of the utmost importance to realize that there is a large sum of money to be made by following public sentiment in the short term. What does the Bull mean?
JRCC - James River Coal Company is the number one stock on the major indexes this year. Coal is a hot commodity and almost all coal stocks are up large(60%+) but James River coal is up hundereds of percent. Why? Well the company seemed destined for bankruptcuy this summer and no one was doing business with them. Since no one was doing business with them much of their coal was not under contract. Now that coal is sky rocketing and coal is in need, JRCC is able to sell their coal for new contracts(since they had the most not under contract of any coal company) and there stock has sky rocketing every single time they point this fact out. Is JRCC to high? Of course it is, this company is hardly profitable and has huge debt. At best they are a 20 dollar stock but more likely about a 16 dollar stock. The Bull shorted the stock a couple weeks ago on earnings day and JRCC reported a huge loss and the Bull made a quick 8% but then the stock came back and actually finished up on the day and it has not looked back. Finally the Bull had enough and bought in at 31 dollars. Today the stock is trading above 36 dollars.
Investors like to invest in stocks they see having the potential to sky rocket up in the short term and JRCC seems to fit the bill. Who cares about the massive debt, continous loss of money on a yearly basis, that the stock went from 50 dollarsto 3.50. This is just like the tech boom, stocks being sold at values that make no sense but there were great amounts of money to be made in the tech boom and there is in JRCC and other stocks that people seem to see as invicible.
Where is oil going to stop?
Gas is approaching four dollars in most parts of the United States and the always bullish oil analysts at Goldman are calling for 141 oil by the end of the year. Thestreet.com has their first article as "Stocks for 200 dollar oil" and on CNBC people are claiming 160-180 oil is in the near future. These people are crazy, oil is up 100% in the last 12 months. This is not going to crash and go back down to 60 dollars a barrel but oil will see 100 before it sees 160. Oil is overpriced and more importantly there is now way that the United States government will allow OPEC to raise oil prices that high by cutting supply. Oil someday in our lives will be at 200then 300 dollars but not this year, not the next, not in 5 years.
To the commentor who said that "Fast money is bashing yahoo, options are not looking good for it".
- Would you take Ichan and Paulson or Macke and some other cronie on that show? Just yesterday CNBC had an article stating "option activity points to yahoo buyout". What a joke.
The bull's favorite golf store Golf Smith is down 26% today. This is a highly volatile stock. Could be a nice 5% kickback here. I would put a 2% sell on it as well.
Bull played his first round yesterday. Shot a 77 with hitting 12 greens but the wedges were not dialed in, the putts were not falling, only hit 6 fairways. Was playing a team match play best ball. The opposing team only fired an 88 and a 90 so my 77 would seem good considering my partner said "I usually shoot low to mid 80's" and then put up a 109!!! I could shoot a 109 with a PW the entire time.
The Bull
JRCC - James River Coal Company is the number one stock on the major indexes this year. Coal is a hot commodity and almost all coal stocks are up large(60%+) but James River coal is up hundereds of percent. Why? Well the company seemed destined for bankruptcuy this summer and no one was doing business with them. Since no one was doing business with them much of their coal was not under contract. Now that coal is sky rocketing and coal is in need, JRCC is able to sell their coal for new contracts(since they had the most not under contract of any coal company) and there stock has sky rocketing every single time they point this fact out. Is JRCC to high? Of course it is, this company is hardly profitable and has huge debt. At best they are a 20 dollar stock but more likely about a 16 dollar stock. The Bull shorted the stock a couple weeks ago on earnings day and JRCC reported a huge loss and the Bull made a quick 8% but then the stock came back and actually finished up on the day and it has not looked back. Finally the Bull had enough and bought in at 31 dollars. Today the stock is trading above 36 dollars.
Investors like to invest in stocks they see having the potential to sky rocket up in the short term and JRCC seems to fit the bill. Who cares about the massive debt, continous loss of money on a yearly basis, that the stock went from 50 dollarsto 3.50. This is just like the tech boom, stocks being sold at values that make no sense but there were great amounts of money to be made in the tech boom and there is in JRCC and other stocks that people seem to see as invicible.
Where is oil going to stop?
Gas is approaching four dollars in most parts of the United States and the always bullish oil analysts at Goldman are calling for 141 oil by the end of the year. Thestreet.com has their first article as "Stocks for 200 dollar oil" and on CNBC people are claiming 160-180 oil is in the near future. These people are crazy, oil is up 100% in the last 12 months. This is not going to crash and go back down to 60 dollars a barrel but oil will see 100 before it sees 160. Oil is overpriced and more importantly there is now way that the United States government will allow OPEC to raise oil prices that high by cutting supply. Oil someday in our lives will be at 200then 300 dollars but not this year, not the next, not in 5 years.
To the commentor who said that "Fast money is bashing yahoo, options are not looking good for it".
- Would you take Ichan and Paulson or Macke and some other cronie on that show? Just yesterday CNBC had an article stating "option activity points to yahoo buyout". What a joke.
The bull's favorite golf store Golf Smith is down 26% today. This is a highly volatile stock. Could be a nice 5% kickback here. I would put a 2% sell on it as well.
Bull played his first round yesterday. Shot a 77 with hitting 12 greens but the wedges were not dialed in, the putts were not falling, only hit 6 fairways. Was playing a team match play best ball. The opposing team only fired an 88 and a 90 so my 77 would seem good considering my partner said "I usually shoot low to mid 80's" and then put up a 109!!! I could shoot a 109 with a PW the entire time.
The Bull
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Three Major Items
Bulls,
Three huge items the Bull must talk about.
1. Yahoo
- As many of the Bull's loyal readers know the Bull is not a fan of Yahoo in any sort of way so the Bull's following comment might be a shocker. The Bull thinks Yahoo is a buy! Now Yahoo is not going to have another 72% jump like it did after MSFT announced plans to buy but if yahoo can secure a 33 dollar sell price then you will see an impressive 18-19% jump in the stock.
Why is the Bull so bullish all of sudden. The Bull believes in following the "whales" and outside of Buffet, Ichan may be the biggest in the game. Now what Ichan specializes in is hostile takeovers and proxy fights. Exactly what he is getting involved with here.
This yahoo board has been in place in four years. During that time the nasdaq is up 30% and Google 440% but yahoo has been flat. This is unacceptable and Ichan has put his own slate of board members up for election. The meeting is July 3rd and the Bull might be in attendence just to see the fireworks.
Within Ichan's ten prospective candidates for the board are some interesting names. Marc Cuban who sold broadcast.com for 5 billion dollars to yahoo, and therefore knows how this yahoo board likes to negotiate. Adam Dell, the brother of Michael Dell, and Lucian Bebchuck who is one of the most respected figures in the academic world in terms of mergers.
But there is one other key ingredient besides Ichan and his 59 million shares and 10 million call options. John Paulson who runs the hedge fund Paulson and Company, made billions this past year by betting against the market due to predicting the subprime mess. He made 3.7 billion dollars personally and was the top earner of any hedge fund mangers(BRK is not a hedge fund and therefore Buffet does not count). Well turns out according to SEC reports that Mr. Paulson himself has acquired a 3.7% stake in yahoo by owning around 50 million shares and he too is demanding change.
Who would not want to go into the trenches with these two giants?
2. 5,000 Cancer Drug Reports Released tonight at 9 PM ET time.
- The American Society of Clinical Oncology every year releases their findings on different cancer drugs. They hold a conference towards the end of May each year where the discuss the blockbuster names of the bio-tech world and their findings. In years past, the ASCO would release their findings to around 25,000 doctors and reporters a few weeks before the conference and then the hawks on Wallstreet would begin paying these doctors substantial amounts of money in exchange for the ASCO results before they were officially released.
As a result, this year the ASCO is releasing almost 5,000 detailed reports on different cancer drugs all at the same time to anyone who has a computer. Log onto asco.org at 9 a clock eastern and the reports will be there for all to see. Now there are a few blockbuster names that they are keeping in store until the conference but the results tonight will shake the Biotech world for the rest of the month.
All the big names such as DNA, PFE, LLY, CELG, ONXX and OSIP will be affected. Personally I am watching for some movement in ARIA and and BMY.
It is hard to predict what will happen and people will be up all night trying to figure out how these findings should affect the stocks. I think the safest bet is to long straddle the volatile cancer related bio-tech stocks.
If you see any huge announcements(IMCL last year) plastered on CNBC, I would do my best to get in pre-market or as early as you can. Also look for a huge drop and maybe try to catch a big comeback play.
3. The Intelligent Investor
- Easily the greatest book ever written on the principles of investing. If you have not read this book, rush down to your nearest barnes and noble and pick it up. I recommend the newer version with commentary from Jason Zweig. I will comment on the book as a whole another day but the book is written by the famed financial mind Benjamin Graham who was the mentor to a young Warren Buffet.
This book will change your life and the way you approach the market.
The Bull is off to play a round of golf.
The Bull
Three huge items the Bull must talk about.
1. Yahoo
- As many of the Bull's loyal readers know the Bull is not a fan of Yahoo in any sort of way so the Bull's following comment might be a shocker. The Bull thinks Yahoo is a buy! Now Yahoo is not going to have another 72% jump like it did after MSFT announced plans to buy but if yahoo can secure a 33 dollar sell price then you will see an impressive 18-19% jump in the stock.
Why is the Bull so bullish all of sudden. The Bull believes in following the "whales" and outside of Buffet, Ichan may be the biggest in the game. Now what Ichan specializes in is hostile takeovers and proxy fights. Exactly what he is getting involved with here.
This yahoo board has been in place in four years. During that time the nasdaq is up 30% and Google 440% but yahoo has been flat. This is unacceptable and Ichan has put his own slate of board members up for election. The meeting is July 3rd and the Bull might be in attendence just to see the fireworks.
Within Ichan's ten prospective candidates for the board are some interesting names. Marc Cuban who sold broadcast.com for 5 billion dollars to yahoo, and therefore knows how this yahoo board likes to negotiate. Adam Dell, the brother of Michael Dell, and Lucian Bebchuck who is one of the most respected figures in the academic world in terms of mergers.
But there is one other key ingredient besides Ichan and his 59 million shares and 10 million call options. John Paulson who runs the hedge fund Paulson and Company, made billions this past year by betting against the market due to predicting the subprime mess. He made 3.7 billion dollars personally and was the top earner of any hedge fund mangers(BRK is not a hedge fund and therefore Buffet does not count). Well turns out according to SEC reports that Mr. Paulson himself has acquired a 3.7% stake in yahoo by owning around 50 million shares and he too is demanding change.
Who would not want to go into the trenches with these two giants?
2. 5,000 Cancer Drug Reports Released tonight at 9 PM ET time.
- The American Society of Clinical Oncology every year releases their findings on different cancer drugs. They hold a conference towards the end of May each year where the discuss the blockbuster names of the bio-tech world and their findings. In years past, the ASCO would release their findings to around 25,000 doctors and reporters a few weeks before the conference and then the hawks on Wallstreet would begin paying these doctors substantial amounts of money in exchange for the ASCO results before they were officially released.
As a result, this year the ASCO is releasing almost 5,000 detailed reports on different cancer drugs all at the same time to anyone who has a computer. Log onto asco.org at 9 a clock eastern and the reports will be there for all to see. Now there are a few blockbuster names that they are keeping in store until the conference but the results tonight will shake the Biotech world for the rest of the month.
All the big names such as DNA, PFE, LLY, CELG, ONXX and OSIP will be affected. Personally I am watching for some movement in ARIA and and BMY.
It is hard to predict what will happen and people will be up all night trying to figure out how these findings should affect the stocks. I think the safest bet is to long straddle the volatile cancer related bio-tech stocks.
If you see any huge announcements(IMCL last year) plastered on CNBC, I would do my best to get in pre-market or as early as you can. Also look for a huge drop and maybe try to catch a big comeback play.
3. The Intelligent Investor
- Easily the greatest book ever written on the principles of investing. If you have not read this book, rush down to your nearest barnes and noble and pick it up. I recommend the newer version with commentary from Jason Zweig. I will comment on the book as a whole another day but the book is written by the famed financial mind Benjamin Graham who was the mentor to a young Warren Buffet.
This book will change your life and the way you approach the market.
The Bull is off to play a round of golf.
The Bull
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The BULL is Alive and Well
Bulls,
I deeply apologize for my lack of posting for this month of may. I will make it up to all of you in the next two weeks I promise.
Sadly as I type right now I am on a plane heading south and write this from the runway on the blackberry.
Someone asked a great question in the comments. How do you pick a stock to buy and what do you look for?
This is a great question and an adequate answer would take more time than I have.
How the Bull usually finds stocks is he first looks for a sector he wants to invest in and then I do my homework on each company and pick the best company or maybe more than one if I am really bullish on the sector. So for instance if railroads I would look at all the rail stocks and end up with BNI and CSX and would then use this loose formula.
Tomorrow I will share the Bull's basic strategy and use a company of the readers choice for example.
Also, the Bull's life story is a long one but he will share his humble beginnings sometime this week.
The Bull is back and the Bull is ready to run.
I deeply apologize for my lack of posting for this month of may. I will make it up to all of you in the next two weeks I promise.
Sadly as I type right now I am on a plane heading south and write this from the runway on the blackberry.
Someone asked a great question in the comments. How do you pick a stock to buy and what do you look for?
This is a great question and an adequate answer would take more time than I have.
How the Bull usually finds stocks is he first looks for a sector he wants to invest in and then I do my homework on each company and pick the best company or maybe more than one if I am really bullish on the sector. So for instance if railroads I would look at all the rail stocks and end up with BNI and CSX and would then use this loose formula.
Tomorrow I will share the Bull's basic strategy and use a company of the readers choice for example.
Also, the Bull's life story is a long one but he will share his humble beginnings sometime this week.
The Bull is back and the Bull is ready to run.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Quite a day for the Junior Bull
Greetings,
The JR Bull had one of his finest days and has moved to where no one thought he could go.
The JR BULL is covering both his shorts(buying shares and giving back to net profit) so here are results of today.
1. JDSU = 175 shares x 2.40 dollars = 420 dollars.
2. RTWW = 4,500 shares x 1.76 = 7,920 dollars.
Profit of = 8340.
Transaction costs: 8 dollars.
Net Profit = 8,332 dollars.
Net Worth outside of profit today = 11,391.95 dollars.
Total Net Worth current: 19,731.95 dollars.
The JR BULL has been a very busy man this week but made time for these four picks for the portfolio.
1. POT - 183.15 dollars for 25 shares.
2. MON - 113.50 for 40 shares.
3. MOS - 122.17 for 37 shares
4. AGU - 78.20 for 58 shares.
The Bull himself will be in Omaha for the Woodstock of capitalism. Watch AXP tomorrow.
The BULL
The JR Bull had one of his finest days and has moved to where no one thought he could go.
The JR BULL is covering both his shorts(buying shares and giving back to net profit) so here are results of today.
1. JDSU = 175 shares x 2.40 dollars = 420 dollars.
2. RTWW = 4,500 shares x 1.76 = 7,920 dollars.
Profit of = 8340.
Transaction costs: 8 dollars.
Net Profit = 8,332 dollars.
Net Worth outside of profit today = 11,391.95 dollars.
Total Net Worth current: 19,731.95 dollars.
The JR BULL has been a very busy man this week but made time for these four picks for the portfolio.
1. POT - 183.15 dollars for 25 shares.
2. MON - 113.50 for 40 shares.
3. MOS - 122.17 for 37 shares
4. AGU - 78.20 for 58 shares.
The Bull himself will be in Omaha for the Woodstock of capitalism. Watch AXP tomorrow.
The BULL
Two Big Moves by Junior Bull
Bulls,
The Junior Bull's portfolio did not perform up to his usual standards but luckily his option did gain 42.5% so it made up for the other pathetic performances.
The Junior Bull has 11,951.95 dollars but the cost of the transactions are 20 dollars to sell so he is then worth 11,931.95 dollars.
Today he has two plays. BOTH SHORTS
1. RTWW - This stock jumped up huge yesterday and there is NO SHOT this stock stays up to par and lasts at 2 dollars or jumps higher. The JR BULL is going short 4,500 shares(9,000 dollars), and a cover price of 2.20 if all hell breaks loose.
2. JDSU - 14.31 per shares, the Bull thinks they blow it today so lets short it for 175 shares.
Costs of transactions 8 dollars.
Cash: 412.5 dollars
The Junior Bull's portfolio did not perform up to his usual standards but luckily his option did gain 42.5% so it made up for the other pathetic performances.
The Junior Bull has 11,951.95 dollars but the cost of the transactions are 20 dollars to sell so he is then worth 11,931.95 dollars.
Today he has two plays. BOTH SHORTS
1. RTWW - This stock jumped up huge yesterday and there is NO SHOT this stock stays up to par and lasts at 2 dollars or jumps higher. The JR BULL is going short 4,500 shares(9,000 dollars), and a cover price of 2.20 if all hell breaks loose.
2. JDSU - 14.31 per shares, the Bull thinks they blow it today so lets short it for 175 shares.
Costs of transactions 8 dollars.
Cash: 412.5 dollars
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The Bull's Take
Bulls,
CNBC is taking it upon themselves to label today as the "biggest day in regards to the economy in the history of the united states". Personally the Bull sees GDP beating the .5% increase that is predicted but these numbers are so manipulated(yes GDP can be manipulated in a myriad of ways) that I am not paying to much attention to it besides to see how it will effect the opening of the market. In the afternoon the Fed WILL cut by 25 basis points and lets pray it is the end of these silly cuts.
Few things I am seeing in the market:
1. Dollar is starting to make a come back(3 week highs) which means the commodities are going down and will continue to drop if the dollar continues to rise. If the FED shocks the Bull and does not cut then the dollar SHOULD rise which means be short in all the ETF's dealing with commodities the next few days if the Fed does NOT cut.
2. AG is taking a hit and there is nothing the Bulls can do about it. When any sector is jumping from 20-80% up on its biggest stocks there is going to have to be a pullback somewhere. But the Bull remains very Bullish on AG and would be playing them tomorrow with TIGHT stop losses on them. Limit the downside and enjoy the upside. Also, POT today dropped to 180 and the Bull thinks its a buy with a tight stop loss. It dropped since the "star analyst" on the stock said he felt it should pullback BUT THEN IT SHOULD GO TO 300 by year end. Get in this baby when you feel it is done going down. It still has a lot of upside.
3. Secondary offerings are killing some of the Bull's favorite stocks. TITN decided to raise itself some capital and offer 3.5 million dollars worth of shares to the public and Citi today announced raising capital of up to 3 billion dollars. As a shareholder you want companies BUYING stock, not selling stock.
4. The IPO market seems to be coming back to life. V and IPI are both up over 50% from their initial offerings and next weeks pipeline of IPO's led by Colfax(oil company) have the Bull ready to make some money.
5. Financials just can't seem to get any sort of momentum. Just when they start heading up there is one or two of their peers that bring the group down as a whole(look at ETF XLF for Financial performance). The Bull stands by Citigroup even with this attempt to raise capital, and still loves WFC, JPM and GS.
What does the Bull like for today?
Penny stocks:
1. VTDI - over 14 million shares traded today and I think it has hit its bottom. Of course I would have a stop loss(15 cents if I was trading it) and see if I could not catch a quick bounch back tomorrow. Be careful with any penny stock.
2. HDUP - Another huge volume stock that I would have loved to pick up at 5 cents instead of 8. I think it can bounce back tomorrow but if you want to be careful maybe look for the stock to drop to .05 before getting in.
Options:
1. Call the Bull nuts but he thinks the June 08 call with strike price at 30 dollars on GIL could be a good find. Yes they lowered guidance but for 35 cents an option it could be a good risky move. Do not buy the 25 dollar strike price call.
Earnings:
1. I think GM could surprise people just like Ford did and make a 5-10% jump.
The Junior Bull's transactions:
1. 588 shares of KOG at 3.40
2. 17 shares of POT at 179.29
3. 100 shares of TITN at 20.15
4. 372 shares of TSCM at 8.05
5. 35 cent call options June 08 on GIL at strike price of 30 dollars. Jr Bull bought 43 contracts.
Total worth of all these securities is 11,561.73.
Costs: All the stock trades were still free. Option cost was 26 dollars.
Cash in bank: 12.27 dollars.
The Bull
CNBC is taking it upon themselves to label today as the "biggest day in regards to the economy in the history of the united states". Personally the Bull sees GDP beating the .5% increase that is predicted but these numbers are so manipulated(yes GDP can be manipulated in a myriad of ways) that I am not paying to much attention to it besides to see how it will effect the opening of the market. In the afternoon the Fed WILL cut by 25 basis points and lets pray it is the end of these silly cuts.
Few things I am seeing in the market:
1. Dollar is starting to make a come back(3 week highs) which means the commodities are going down and will continue to drop if the dollar continues to rise. If the FED shocks the Bull and does not cut then the dollar SHOULD rise which means be short in all the ETF's dealing with commodities the next few days if the Fed does NOT cut.
2. AG is taking a hit and there is nothing the Bulls can do about it. When any sector is jumping from 20-80% up on its biggest stocks there is going to have to be a pullback somewhere. But the Bull remains very Bullish on AG and would be playing them tomorrow with TIGHT stop losses on them. Limit the downside and enjoy the upside. Also, POT today dropped to 180 and the Bull thinks its a buy with a tight stop loss. It dropped since the "star analyst" on the stock said he felt it should pullback BUT THEN IT SHOULD GO TO 300 by year end. Get in this baby when you feel it is done going down. It still has a lot of upside.
3. Secondary offerings are killing some of the Bull's favorite stocks. TITN decided to raise itself some capital and offer 3.5 million dollars worth of shares to the public and Citi today announced raising capital of up to 3 billion dollars. As a shareholder you want companies BUYING stock, not selling stock.
4. The IPO market seems to be coming back to life. V and IPI are both up over 50% from their initial offerings and next weeks pipeline of IPO's led by Colfax(oil company) have the Bull ready to make some money.
5. Financials just can't seem to get any sort of momentum. Just when they start heading up there is one or two of their peers that bring the group down as a whole(look at ETF XLF for Financial performance). The Bull stands by Citigroup even with this attempt to raise capital, and still loves WFC, JPM and GS.
What does the Bull like for today?
Penny stocks:
1. VTDI - over 14 million shares traded today and I think it has hit its bottom. Of course I would have a stop loss(15 cents if I was trading it) and see if I could not catch a quick bounch back tomorrow. Be careful with any penny stock.
2. HDUP - Another huge volume stock that I would have loved to pick up at 5 cents instead of 8. I think it can bounce back tomorrow but if you want to be careful maybe look for the stock to drop to .05 before getting in.
Options:
1. Call the Bull nuts but he thinks the June 08 call with strike price at 30 dollars on GIL could be a good find. Yes they lowered guidance but for 35 cents an option it could be a good risky move. Do not buy the 25 dollar strike price call.
Earnings:
1. I think GM could surprise people just like Ford did and make a 5-10% jump.
The Junior Bull's transactions:
1. 588 shares of KOG at 3.40
2. 17 shares of POT at 179.29
3. 100 shares of TITN at 20.15
4. 372 shares of TSCM at 8.05
5. 35 cent call options June 08 on GIL at strike price of 30 dollars. Jr Bull bought 43 contracts.
Total worth of all these securities is 11,561.73.
Costs: All the stock trades were still free. Option cost was 26 dollars.
Cash in bank: 12.27 dollars.
The Bull
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
JR Bull transaction
JR BULL just sent the Bull a text reporting that as of this minute he is selling his entire stake in MA at the price of 277.64 dollars.
The JR Bull owned 42 shares that are now worth 11600.88 dollars.
This was the JR BULL's 4th trade and therefore no transaction costs yet.
The JR BULL has assured me that he will have some stock picks and option picks later tonight as will I.
The JR Bull owned 42 shares that are now worth 11600.88 dollars.
This was the JR BULL's 4th trade and therefore no transaction costs yet.
The JR BULL has assured me that he will have some stock picks and option picks later tonight as will I.
JR BULL UPDATE
Greetings this beautiful morning.
The JR BULL has 10188.50 dollars in his account and has decided to go ALL IN on Mastercard pre-market.
MA is selling at 242.50 right now before its release in 15 minutes. The Junior Bull bought 42 shares(we round to nearest share, this time that would be down to 42) and was able to purchase for no transaction cost(7 more free trades this month).
I will update later today if the JR BULL makes any moves. Don't worry they will be posted here before the moves are even made to avoid any sort of "cheating".
I also am a huge fan of MA. Get in Get Rich.
BULL
The JR BULL has 10188.50 dollars in his account and has decided to go ALL IN on Mastercard pre-market.
MA is selling at 242.50 right now before its release in 15 minutes. The Junior Bull bought 42 shares(we round to nearest share, this time that would be down to 42) and was able to purchase for no transaction cost(7 more free trades this month).
I will update later today if the JR BULL makes any moves. Don't worry they will be posted here before the moves are even made to avoid any sort of "cheating".
I also am a huge fan of MA. Get in Get Rich.
BULL
Monday, April 28, 2008
News on the Bull and JR Bull
Greetings,
The Bull was up a lousy 5.5% today off of TITN, MTW, BRKA, TTWO, V, and MA. Not the Bull's best day by a long shot.
The Bull has been missing in action and will continue to only be able to post once or twice a week due to outside forces.
The Bull and the JR Bull had a sit down fireside chat this past friday night in which the Jr Bull made this bold claim. "I don't get it Bull, I just don't get it. I could EASILY turn 10k into 20k within 30 trading days. Thats only 3.3% a day for Christ sakes How can't anyone do it. I'll show them how it is done". With that being said the JR Bull set up a 10k fund that he was going to use on this blog to see if he can back up his bold claim.
Today was day 1 and the JR BULL only owned one stock. TITN
The Junior Bull bought 10,000 dollars worth(he is using zecco and receives 10 free trades) so he received 497 shares of TITN. Those shares are now worth(since he held them into earnings) 10188.50 dollars.
I will keep all updated on any changes the JR Bull makes.
I hope to have some picks later tonight for all.
The Bull
The Bull was up a lousy 5.5% today off of TITN, MTW, BRKA, TTWO, V, and MA. Not the Bull's best day by a long shot.
The Bull has been missing in action and will continue to only be able to post once or twice a week due to outside forces.
The Bull and the JR Bull had a sit down fireside chat this past friday night in which the Jr Bull made this bold claim. "I don't get it Bull, I just don't get it. I could EASILY turn 10k into 20k within 30 trading days. Thats only 3.3% a day for Christ sakes How can't anyone do it. I'll show them how it is done". With that being said the JR Bull set up a 10k fund that he was going to use on this blog to see if he can back up his bold claim.
Today was day 1 and the JR BULL only owned one stock. TITN
The Junior Bull bought 10,000 dollars worth(he is using zecco and receives 10 free trades) so he received 497 shares of TITN. Those shares are now worth(since he held them into earnings) 10188.50 dollars.
I will keep all updated on any changes the JR Bull makes.
I hope to have some picks later tonight for all.
The Bull
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Time to give back
Bulls,
I would never want to talk about anything outside of stocks on this blog unless it was of the utmost importance. Seeing that this blog now demands over 12 million hits a week I cannot help but think that this blog cannot only be used to further a message of prosperity but also a message of giving back. Don't worry this is a once in a blue moon entry but it is extremely important.
I am surmising that the majority of the readers of this blog are not poor, uneducated people who cannot afford to give back some of their money in life and I am sure most of you give back your fair share.
I can't help myself but to point out a few charities that I feel deserve your fullest attention.
http://www.nothingbutnets.net/
http://www.netsforlifeafrica.org/
I realize that Malaria seems like a foreign term in the United States but this disease is infected in 300-550 million people every single year and it kills between 1-3 million people. While that may seem like a low death rate compared to the people infected, it should be noted that 75% of the people who do die from this disease are under the age of 5 years old. 3,000 children die every single day in just Sub-Saharan Africa alone. What can be done to stop this? While I certainly advocate giving money to vaccines and research I must also point out that just buying a net for 10 dollars( that includes cost to ship and everything total) will shelter four people every single night from this deadly disease.
The nets typically sell for between 2-3 dollars from the United Nations but you can donate to these two sites above and they will buy all the nets, ship them to Africa and get them set up with families so lives can be saved. For just 10 dollars you can save a life. I am sure(or hoping) that no one would walk by a dying child on the street and not help, but just because you cannot physically see the dying child does not mean doing nothing is any less unethical.
2. http://www.endhomelessness.org/
- I realize the majority of people see homelessness as baggers on the street looking for their next shot of vodka but this is nothing but an allusion that people create in their minds to make it easier to help forget about what homelessness really is. 30-40% of homeless people are veterans who fought to protect this country so that the rest of us could go on with our lives trying to "live the American dream". About 1,500,000 children are homeless tonight on the streets of America and 43% of them are under the age of 6. While I am sure many are fast to blame poverty on the person, how can you blame a 5 year old child for his parents actions?
What frustrates the Bull more than anything is how so many people feel they are so much better than the homeless bagger on the street. The Bull would probably be considered in the top 99.999% of successful people in terms of how America judges success but this has more to do with the opportunities that were given to the Bull then it does with the Bull himself. The Bull grew up in a two parent home, was given every opportunity he could ever dream of, was able to go to college anywhere he wanted, able to obtain the top notch education he needed, able to travel the world, given the opportunity to have some of the best jobs any college student could dream of and due to a large part to all those experiences was able to make millions of dollars by the time he graduated from college. But the Bull would have NEVER been as successful had he grown up in a impoverished family. Had the Bull grown up on the streets he most likely would have never graduated from highschool, never mind going to college. I have heard so many times friends and family of the Bull tell each other "how sick they are of hearing about homeless people, they are to lazy". These friends and family lack any sort of perspective outside of their own self built make believe fantasy world in which they are of more intelligence, drive and ability than everyone who is below them in terms of money. Don't be one of these people.
Some people think homelessness cannot be cured and that it is a cause of Capitalism. Take it from someone who knows money and capitalism better than almost anyone out there. Homelessness is the effect of ignorance and nature, not of some economic system. Minneapolis- Saint Paul has cut down homelessness by 43% between 2002-2006, NYC has cut it down 33% in the same time period and San Fransisco by 65% in those 4 years. Those are some of the most prosperous(NYC and San Fran 1 and 2 in the country) and yet they have overcome the "evils of capitalism and greed" by realizing that homelessness is a problem and that it can be fixed.
3. http://www.actionagainsthunger.org/
Starvation kills over 35,000 people every single day. That means it kills 10 times what the 9/11 terrorist attacks killed in a single day. I once had a famous Biology teacher(won a noble peace prize in the field of nutrition) who always told me that there is not a single reason that any one on earth should ever die of lack of resources for the next 5,000 years. He made the bold claim that not a single person died of starvation in the United States unless they went out of their way to make sure they did not eat and he gave lecture after lecture about how easy it would be to feed the world until humans reached their carrying capacity(9.9 billion in his opinion). Should 35,000 people be dying a day because they cannot get the resources to survive? You can feed a family of 4 by just paying 5 dollars a day to this website.
4. http://www.redcross.org/
The granddaddy of them all. The Red Cross is involved in almost every line of charity(poverty, sickness, homelessness, ect). If you want to help the world become a better place and not focus on just one cause then the Red Cross is for you.
Since I know this is long I will just link the other charities I am involved with.
5. http://www.bbbs.org/site/c.diJKKYPLJvH/b.1539751/k.BDB6/Home.htm
6. http://www.conservationfund.org/
7. http://www.arcrelief.org/site/PageServer
8. http://www.imcworldwide.org/
9. http://www.fallenheroesfund.org/fallenheroes/index.php
10. http://www.secondharvest.org/
I would never want to talk about anything outside of stocks on this blog unless it was of the utmost importance. Seeing that this blog now demands over 12 million hits a week I cannot help but think that this blog cannot only be used to further a message of prosperity but also a message of giving back. Don't worry this is a once in a blue moon entry but it is extremely important.
I am surmising that the majority of the readers of this blog are not poor, uneducated people who cannot afford to give back some of their money in life and I am sure most of you give back your fair share.
I can't help myself but to point out a few charities that I feel deserve your fullest attention.
http://www.nothingbutnets.net/
http://www.netsforlifeafrica.org/
I realize that Malaria seems like a foreign term in the United States but this disease is infected in 300-550 million people every single year and it kills between 1-3 million people. While that may seem like a low death rate compared to the people infected, it should be noted that 75% of the people who do die from this disease are under the age of 5 years old. 3,000 children die every single day in just Sub-Saharan Africa alone. What can be done to stop this? While I certainly advocate giving money to vaccines and research I must also point out that just buying a net for 10 dollars( that includes cost to ship and everything total) will shelter four people every single night from this deadly disease.
The nets typically sell for between 2-3 dollars from the United Nations but you can donate to these two sites above and they will buy all the nets, ship them to Africa and get them set up with families so lives can be saved. For just 10 dollars you can save a life. I am sure(or hoping) that no one would walk by a dying child on the street and not help, but just because you cannot physically see the dying child does not mean doing nothing is any less unethical.
2. http://www.endhomelessness.org/
- I realize the majority of people see homelessness as baggers on the street looking for their next shot of vodka but this is nothing but an allusion that people create in their minds to make it easier to help forget about what homelessness really is. 30-40% of homeless people are veterans who fought to protect this country so that the rest of us could go on with our lives trying to "live the American dream". About 1,500,000 children are homeless tonight on the streets of America and 43% of them are under the age of 6. While I am sure many are fast to blame poverty on the person, how can you blame a 5 year old child for his parents actions?
What frustrates the Bull more than anything is how so many people feel they are so much better than the homeless bagger on the street. The Bull would probably be considered in the top 99.999% of successful people in terms of how America judges success but this has more to do with the opportunities that were given to the Bull then it does with the Bull himself. The Bull grew up in a two parent home, was given every opportunity he could ever dream of, was able to go to college anywhere he wanted, able to obtain the top notch education he needed, able to travel the world, given the opportunity to have some of the best jobs any college student could dream of and due to a large part to all those experiences was able to make millions of dollars by the time he graduated from college. But the Bull would have NEVER been as successful had he grown up in a impoverished family. Had the Bull grown up on the streets he most likely would have never graduated from highschool, never mind going to college. I have heard so many times friends and family of the Bull tell each other "how sick they are of hearing about homeless people, they are to lazy". These friends and family lack any sort of perspective outside of their own self built make believe fantasy world in which they are of more intelligence, drive and ability than everyone who is below them in terms of money. Don't be one of these people.
Some people think homelessness cannot be cured and that it is a cause of Capitalism. Take it from someone who knows money and capitalism better than almost anyone out there. Homelessness is the effect of ignorance and nature, not of some economic system. Minneapolis- Saint Paul has cut down homelessness by 43% between 2002-2006, NYC has cut it down 33% in the same time period and San Fransisco by 65% in those 4 years. Those are some of the most prosperous(NYC and San Fran 1 and 2 in the country) and yet they have overcome the "evils of capitalism and greed" by realizing that homelessness is a problem and that it can be fixed.
3. http://www.actionagainsthunger.org/
Starvation kills over 35,000 people every single day. That means it kills 10 times what the 9/11 terrorist attacks killed in a single day. I once had a famous Biology teacher(won a noble peace prize in the field of nutrition) who always told me that there is not a single reason that any one on earth should ever die of lack of resources for the next 5,000 years. He made the bold claim that not a single person died of starvation in the United States unless they went out of their way to make sure they did not eat and he gave lecture after lecture about how easy it would be to feed the world until humans reached their carrying capacity(9.9 billion in his opinion). Should 35,000 people be dying a day because they cannot get the resources to survive? You can feed a family of 4 by just paying 5 dollars a day to this website.
4. http://www.redcross.org/
The granddaddy of them all. The Red Cross is involved in almost every line of charity(poverty, sickness, homelessness, ect). If you want to help the world become a better place and not focus on just one cause then the Red Cross is for you.
Since I know this is long I will just link the other charities I am involved with.
5. http://www.bbbs.org/site/c.diJKKYPLJvH/b.1539751/k.BDB6/Home.htm
6. http://www.conservationfund.org/
7. http://www.arcrelief.org/site/PageServer
8. http://www.imcworldwide.org/
9. http://www.fallenheroesfund.org/fallenheroes/index.php
10. http://www.secondharvest.org/
Monday, April 21, 2008
To Advance or not to Advance?
It has been a glorious and successful three months for the Bull and his disciples. We have taken 5k and turned it into a million. We have taken earnings and predicted them at a 98% rate but the most impressive success of all is that finally we have taken a bear market at 11,600 level and turned it into a Bull's market by pushing the market towards 13,000 and we are just getting started.
I believe we have taken the novice investor and turned him into a millionaire but I feel it is time to take this blog to the next level. I have always planned for a four part year divided between the four quarters. First we would do novice trading techniques then intermediate, then advanced then some secrets of the trade. Do people feel its time to jump to the next level. What do people want the next level to entail? The Bull is the people's champ and nothing without them, let the people speak.
The Bull
I believe we have taken the novice investor and turned him into a millionaire but I feel it is time to take this blog to the next level. I have always planned for a four part year divided between the four quarters. First we would do novice trading techniques then intermediate, then advanced then some secrets of the trade. Do people feel its time to jump to the next level. What do people want the next level to entail? The Bull is the people's champ and nothing without them, let the people speak.
The Bull
Thursday, April 17, 2008
The Bull's mighty week
To my legion of fans.
I prefer to review my earning selections for the day but since I hit all 15 you can just go back and look. That makes it 29/30 in a game that is "impossible".
Tomorrow we only have three stocks sadly.
1. HON - Weak dollar, healthy exchange rates, booming business in emerging markets should give HON a nice beat tomorrow.
2. CAT - Just read HON.
3. C - Here is an interesting play, they are going to have some bad news but I love them like I do WFC and JPM so lets go with a beat.
In the end tomorrow will be a huge day(short of Citi saying their going bankrupt). GOOG was not priced in to beat this big(look at after hours) and this will be felt by the market as a whole tomorrow. Enjoy another big day Bulls.
The Bull(hitting at 97%)
I prefer to review my earning selections for the day but since I hit all 15 you can just go back and look. That makes it 29/30 in a game that is "impossible".
Tomorrow we only have three stocks sadly.
1. HON - Weak dollar, healthy exchange rates, booming business in emerging markets should give HON a nice beat tomorrow.
2. CAT - Just read HON.
3. C - Here is an interesting play, they are going to have some bad news but I love them like I do WFC and JPM so lets go with a beat.
In the end tomorrow will be a huge day(short of Citi saying their going bankrupt). GOOG was not priced in to beat this big(look at after hours) and this will be felt by the market as a whole tomorrow. Enjoy another big day Bulls.
The Bull(hitting at 97%)
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
The Bull is just getting started
What a week for the Bull and all of his faithful followers.
The Bull was hitting at 88.9% entering today for earnings and he only went on to improve that. Lets review as usual:
1. IBM - The Bull said they would blow past earnings and boy did they folks. Huge beat for IBM.
2. EBAY - The Bull knew their estimates were to low and EBAY went on to beat them although the Bull is still not a fan of the company.
3. WFC - WB did miss but the Bull and his favorite bank came right on through. Huge beat for Wells Fargo just as the Bull had declared.
4. JPM - The Bull called a beat but he will admit he had his doubts but this is a good sign for the company going forward.
5. KO - Coke was an easy pick with the weak dollar and emerging markets that coke is dominating in.
6. AMR - The Bull has been calling his disciples to be short all weak and after close AMR produced the miss that the Bull was calling for.
That makes it 6/6 today and an amazing 14/15 this week in a game that is "nothing more than flipping a coin". Better yet is the Bull has for the most part been Bullish in a quarter where last week every news channel was predicting the worst earning quarter since the beginning of the century. Luckily you all have The BULL.
For tomorrow the Bull has been promising SEVEN different prediction but due to the Bull's recent success he will offer more than twice that amount. Lets get right to it.
Thursday:
1. GOOG - I love GOOG long term but I do have some doubts about it this quarter. They dropped 9% after there last quarter release and the option activity is telling me that no one really has any idea where it is going. There are many people who think this stock is going to miss and miss badly due to the fact that YHOO has gained such ground on them. GOOG does not give guidance which makes this a guessing game but I am going with one of the Bulls closest friends(J) and going to go with a beat here.
2. HOG - The stock is down 40% for year but has had recent success in last couple days since Polaris beat earnings but I don't think it carries over. I think HOG misses because Polaris beat because of off-road machines, not because of motorcycles. HOG MISS
3. PFE - I like this company long term but every drug company is having trouble right now with their big time drugs and these people are more worried about who to buy out then there stock price. I think their drugs disappoint and they miss.
4. AMTD - I don't like them as much as I like Schwab but their daily volume of trades was up 8% for FEB and even more for January and I think the volatile market will help AMTD beat earnings as well.
5. MER - Financials have been on a roll but MER has made so many mistakes these past few weeks I don't see how they can beat estimates. I realize WFC and JPM beat estimates but MER was so deep in the credit crisis I am not ready to be bullish on them so I have to call a loss.
6. ETFC - I love ETFC, I really do but I have many doubts. I am high on AMTD and Schwab because they are taking business from ETFC but at the same time the estimates for ETFC are for them to lose money per share. They have missed last three quarters but had beaten on 12/13 quarters before that. They have to show me they are back before I jump on this bandwagon although I love their commercials.
7. CTX - They use to be a lock to beat but after missing by over 900% last quarter how can I call a beat here. I can't so I will go with a miss.
8. LUV - I truly do like Southwest but I can't see them or any other airline outside of Jet Blue beating earnings and they have had many problems with the mechanics of their aircraft so I have to call a miss.
9. CAL - Same story as Southwest. Calling a miss.
10. TXT - This is a very easy call, the estimate of 84 cents is a complete joke. They at least post 90 cents EPS and I am not even a fan. Call it another beat.
11. UTX - Might be best ran company on the planet and I think their EPS of 1.01 dollars is a couple cents to low. I see them beating even though its a hard market for a company like UTX.
12. WWW -While I am not very high on footwear, this stock has been beaten down and their EPS predictions will not be hard to beat. Call it a beat.
12. SMSC - Difficult call here, I have heard from sources that they will beat estimates but their revenue will be down which means stays away but they will beat I have heard.
14. NOK - I think they beat estimates but I am hardly to high on any cell phone company. I think it is a dreadful market.
15. DHR - Like UTX and TXT I think they beat but only beat slightly.
The Bull was hitting at 88.9% entering today for earnings and he only went on to improve that. Lets review as usual:
1. IBM - The Bull said they would blow past earnings and boy did they folks. Huge beat for IBM.
2. EBAY - The Bull knew their estimates were to low and EBAY went on to beat them although the Bull is still not a fan of the company.
3. WFC - WB did miss but the Bull and his favorite bank came right on through. Huge beat for Wells Fargo just as the Bull had declared.
4. JPM - The Bull called a beat but he will admit he had his doubts but this is a good sign for the company going forward.
5. KO - Coke was an easy pick with the weak dollar and emerging markets that coke is dominating in.
6. AMR - The Bull has been calling his disciples to be short all weak and after close AMR produced the miss that the Bull was calling for.
That makes it 6/6 today and an amazing 14/15 this week in a game that is "nothing more than flipping a coin". Better yet is the Bull has for the most part been Bullish in a quarter where last week every news channel was predicting the worst earning quarter since the beginning of the century. Luckily you all have The BULL.
For tomorrow the Bull has been promising SEVEN different prediction but due to the Bull's recent success he will offer more than twice that amount. Lets get right to it.
Thursday:
1. GOOG - I love GOOG long term but I do have some doubts about it this quarter. They dropped 9% after there last quarter release and the option activity is telling me that no one really has any idea where it is going. There are many people who think this stock is going to miss and miss badly due to the fact that YHOO has gained such ground on them. GOOG does not give guidance which makes this a guessing game but I am going with one of the Bulls closest friends(J) and going to go with a beat here.
2. HOG - The stock is down 40% for year but has had recent success in last couple days since Polaris beat earnings but I don't think it carries over. I think HOG misses because Polaris beat because of off-road machines, not because of motorcycles. HOG MISS
3. PFE - I like this company long term but every drug company is having trouble right now with their big time drugs and these people are more worried about who to buy out then there stock price. I think their drugs disappoint and they miss.
4. AMTD - I don't like them as much as I like Schwab but their daily volume of trades was up 8% for FEB and even more for January and I think the volatile market will help AMTD beat earnings as well.
5. MER - Financials have been on a roll but MER has made so many mistakes these past few weeks I don't see how they can beat estimates. I realize WFC and JPM beat estimates but MER was so deep in the credit crisis I am not ready to be bullish on them so I have to call a loss.
6. ETFC - I love ETFC, I really do but I have many doubts. I am high on AMTD and Schwab because they are taking business from ETFC but at the same time the estimates for ETFC are for them to lose money per share. They have missed last three quarters but had beaten on 12/13 quarters before that. They have to show me they are back before I jump on this bandwagon although I love their commercials.
7. CTX - They use to be a lock to beat but after missing by over 900% last quarter how can I call a beat here. I can't so I will go with a miss.
8. LUV - I truly do like Southwest but I can't see them or any other airline outside of Jet Blue beating earnings and they have had many problems with the mechanics of their aircraft so I have to call a miss.
9. CAL - Same story as Southwest. Calling a miss.
10. TXT - This is a very easy call, the estimate of 84 cents is a complete joke. They at least post 90 cents EPS and I am not even a fan. Call it another beat.
11. UTX - Might be best ran company on the planet and I think their EPS of 1.01 dollars is a couple cents to low. I see them beating even though its a hard market for a company like UTX.
12. WWW -While I am not very high on footwear, this stock has been beaten down and their EPS predictions will not be hard to beat. Call it a beat.
12. SMSC - Difficult call here, I have heard from sources that they will beat estimates but their revenue will be down which means stays away but they will beat I have heard.
14. NOK - I think they beat estimates but I am hardly to high on any cell phone company. I think it is a dreadful market.
15. DHR - Like UTX and TXT I think they beat but only beat slightly.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The Bull's Divine Wisdom continues
To the Disciples,
People say earnings are impossible to predict. That ever since the SEC cracked down that no one, not even the ultimate insiders had any sort of idea how companies would report yet here is the Bull, in all of his divinity, calling earning after earning. Shall we look at the report card so far:
XTO - Beat earnings, energy was an easy call for the Bull. We will give ourselves only a B rating for this one. But make that one out of one.
SCHW: The sinners laughed at the Bull when he said they would destroy earnings thanks to the volatile market and experienced traders and when they did the sinners ran for cover. This was an A+ call. Make it 2 for 2.
JNJ: People were mixed, the commentors said consumer company can't beat. The Bull never had a doubt. Make it 3/3.
USB: A Minneapolis banked regional bank that had kept itself above the fray, not a hard call for the Bull. Make it 4/4.
NTRS: They barely got by earnings and had a small beat but the Bull called a miss but let this be a foreshadowing of the other regional banks. Small beats. Make it 4/5.
CSX: The Bull guaranteed a beat and boy did they. Make it 5/6.
INTC: The Bull was unsure, he couldn't make up his mind but ultimately he said if forced he would pick a miss. Well they didn't miss or beat and therefore the Bull is not counting this. Keep it 5/6.
To be fair the rest were not listed in the Bull's calendar of earnings but were listed below for his daily picks but the Bull pointed out they were earnigns. How did the Bull do on those:
JOEZ: Beat huge, make it 6/7.
FRX: Beat estimates but guidance was down but the Bull wasn't predicting guidance. Make it 7/8.
IIIN: Bull called a huge beat and they came through and are up 9% today. Make it 8/9.
The Bull is batting 88.9% in a game that is impossible to call.
Tomorrows earnings:
1. IBM: IBM will beat estimates but they won't move much. They are 65% international company and weakening dollar will help them. I realize their is great volatility for a 7% move in options but I don't see this stock going up 7% after hours. They are near 52 week highs but they will beat.
2. JPM: Hard call to make after WB. The Bull thinks JPM is the best of the banks and believes they will beat earnings but watch out for the amount of jobs they cut and the write down they will announce. They will beat earnings.
3. KO - Coke will beat earnings due to its presence in emerging markets.
4. AMR - Have had a short rating for this stock all week and hope you all followed since its down yet another 8% today. I think they have just another miserable day tomorrow.
5. EBAY - A lot of people are scared to touch this stock since it is the first for new CEO John Donahoe and the first since they revamped their business last quarter but I think expectations are modest and the Bull sees yet another company beat earnings.
6. WFC - I love this stock long term. It has huge cash flow, little exposure to sub-prime mess, great dividend and kick ass management team and the Bull is unsure about tomorrow but he is going to go with yet another BEAT.
Can the Bull keep hitting at 88%. Tomorrow we will see.
I know their are some Solar Fun(Solar stocks) readers out there and want to point out that today is the first ever ETF for Solar stocks(25 companies that differ in their regards to how they take part in the solar fun) it is called TAN.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 15.
People say earnings are impossible to predict. That ever since the SEC cracked down that no one, not even the ultimate insiders had any sort of idea how companies would report yet here is the Bull, in all of his divinity, calling earning after earning. Shall we look at the report card so far:
XTO - Beat earnings, energy was an easy call for the Bull. We will give ourselves only a B rating for this one. But make that one out of one.
SCHW: The sinners laughed at the Bull when he said they would destroy earnings thanks to the volatile market and experienced traders and when they did the sinners ran for cover. This was an A+ call. Make it 2 for 2.
JNJ: People were mixed, the commentors said consumer company can't beat. The Bull never had a doubt. Make it 3/3.
USB: A Minneapolis banked regional bank that had kept itself above the fray, not a hard call for the Bull. Make it 4/4.
NTRS: They barely got by earnings and had a small beat but the Bull called a miss but let this be a foreshadowing of the other regional banks. Small beats. Make it 4/5.
CSX: The Bull guaranteed a beat and boy did they. Make it 5/6.
INTC: The Bull was unsure, he couldn't make up his mind but ultimately he said if forced he would pick a miss. Well they didn't miss or beat and therefore the Bull is not counting this. Keep it 5/6.
To be fair the rest were not listed in the Bull's calendar of earnings but were listed below for his daily picks but the Bull pointed out they were earnigns. How did the Bull do on those:
JOEZ: Beat huge, make it 6/7.
FRX: Beat estimates but guidance was down but the Bull wasn't predicting guidance. Make it 7/8.
IIIN: Bull called a huge beat and they came through and are up 9% today. Make it 8/9.
The Bull is batting 88.9% in a game that is impossible to call.
Tomorrows earnings:
1. IBM: IBM will beat estimates but they won't move much. They are 65% international company and weakening dollar will help them. I realize their is great volatility for a 7% move in options but I don't see this stock going up 7% after hours. They are near 52 week highs but they will beat.
2. JPM: Hard call to make after WB. The Bull thinks JPM is the best of the banks and believes they will beat earnings but watch out for the amount of jobs they cut and the write down they will announce. They will beat earnings.
3. KO - Coke will beat earnings due to its presence in emerging markets.
4. AMR - Have had a short rating for this stock all week and hope you all followed since its down yet another 8% today. I think they have just another miserable day tomorrow.
5. EBAY - A lot of people are scared to touch this stock since it is the first for new CEO John Donahoe and the first since they revamped their business last quarter but I think expectations are modest and the Bull sees yet another company beat earnings.
6. WFC - I love this stock long term. It has huge cash flow, little exposure to sub-prime mess, great dividend and kick ass management team and the Bull is unsure about tomorrow but he is going to go with yet another BEAT.
Can the Bull keep hitting at 88%. Tomorrow we will see.
I know their are some Solar Fun(Solar stocks) readers out there and want to point out that today is the first ever ETF for Solar stocks(25 companies that differ in their regards to how they take part in the solar fun) it is called TAN.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 15.
Monday, April 14, 2008
A reading from the Gospel of the Bull
What a day for the Bull and his disciples. The Bull's daily picks were up an average of 22.375% and his shorts down an average of 24.37%. Only HGLC was incorrect from the Bulls picks but the Bull is backing Hunt Gold again tomorrow in hopes of an hostile takeover from FGGO.
The Bull has to apologize to his protege the Junior Bull and to his millions, and the BULL MEANS MILLIONS of readers for not posting two of the JR. Bull's latest declarations. The Junior Bull since last thursday has been badgering the SR. Bull with all this circuit city buyout talk and the Bull balked saying who would Buy Tits and Ass, who would buy? Tits and Ass being the Bull he is put it best, "Bull stop thinking logically in a bear market, it doesn't have to make sense, they will be bought out." Well the JR Bull as usually was correct and a company I believe to be going bankrupt decided to buy another company going bankrupt. Only in the world of the Bears.
The Junior Bull also shared his penny stock of the month with the Bull last night which was AVAL which was up a Bull like 42.6% today.
Well I am sure a couple of you are wondering what happened to schawb's earnings today. Well they are scheduled for this week and unlike any other company do not say when but the Bull is guessing before thursday but the Bull's predictions for the company stay the same even with WB posting terrible earnings. So here is the Bull's initial take on earnings for tomorrow's companies.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ - The Bull loves JNJ. The Bull thinks JNJ is large enough and a diversified enough company that its weakness in the pharma department will not ruin the overall quarter. The weakening dollar will also help this international superstar. And most importantly, the one investor the Bull trusts continues to build his massive stake in JNJ(The Oracle of Omaha)The Bull is going against the experts and saying JNJ beats estimates.
2. NTRS - With WB missing so badly the Bull is calling a missed quarter for this Midwest powerhouse.
3. USB - Yes it got hammered today because of WB but the Bull is bullish on good ole USB. Unlike almost every other bank USB has hardly dropped this year because it was pickier about assuming bad credit risks and benefited. I think USB puts up a nice quarter and beats estimates.
4. CSX - I can't believe people think this company is going to miss. Get into it, it will not miss. Railroads are going like its the 1860's all over again. All on board. CHOO CHOO.
5. INTC - People say since AMD(their closest competitor) missed so badly last week that this singles a huge miss for Intel. Intel did have a terrible last quarter and the stock has jumped from 17 back to 21 but the Bull still has doubts. The Bull would stay clear of this stock tomorrow. But the Bull is never one to back down from putting himself out there so the Bull predicts a miss and the stock is heading back down.
WED:
1. IBM -
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
What does the Bull like for tomorrow?
Penny Stocks: Long CHHB, RHWI, BPWI, DPHG, SAMBW. Short: RYMM, GAGI, PANNF, NTHD, SHZO.
Long: BDAY(tight limit sell), SIRI, IMB, FLY(tight limit sell), DAL(hope you are already in since the Bull said to get in yesterday), FRX(earnings I think they beat as well, get in), GS(it belongs in 170s, this is a week play), JOEZ(will beat earnings as well), IIIN(I think they beat as well).
Premarket: INOC, and FBR are both possible longs.
The Bull realizes most of you are reading this and saying "BULL, we Love you but everywhere we turn we hear how this might be the worst earnings quarter of this decade, so how can you be so Bullish?" Just as Jesus himself was doubted endlessly by his disciples in the book of Mark, the Bull to will be doubted until the day he passes into the heavens and only then will the people realize who the Bull truly is.
Here ends the reading of the The Bull, Chapter 4, verse 14.
The Bull has to apologize to his protege the Junior Bull and to his millions, and the BULL MEANS MILLIONS of readers for not posting two of the JR. Bull's latest declarations. The Junior Bull since last thursday has been badgering the SR. Bull with all this circuit city buyout talk and the Bull balked saying who would Buy Tits and Ass, who would buy? Tits and Ass being the Bull he is put it best, "Bull stop thinking logically in a bear market, it doesn't have to make sense, they will be bought out." Well the JR Bull as usually was correct and a company I believe to be going bankrupt decided to buy another company going bankrupt. Only in the world of the Bears.
The Junior Bull also shared his penny stock of the month with the Bull last night which was AVAL which was up a Bull like 42.6% today.
Well I am sure a couple of you are wondering what happened to schawb's earnings today. Well they are scheduled for this week and unlike any other company do not say when but the Bull is guessing before thursday but the Bull's predictions for the company stay the same even with WB posting terrible earnings. So here is the Bull's initial take on earnings for tomorrow's companies.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ - The Bull loves JNJ. The Bull thinks JNJ is large enough and a diversified enough company that its weakness in the pharma department will not ruin the overall quarter. The weakening dollar will also help this international superstar. And most importantly, the one investor the Bull trusts continues to build his massive stake in JNJ(The Oracle of Omaha)The Bull is going against the experts and saying JNJ beats estimates.
2. NTRS - With WB missing so badly the Bull is calling a missed quarter for this Midwest powerhouse.
3. USB - Yes it got hammered today because of WB but the Bull is bullish on good ole USB. Unlike almost every other bank USB has hardly dropped this year because it was pickier about assuming bad credit risks and benefited. I think USB puts up a nice quarter and beats estimates.
4. CSX - I can't believe people think this company is going to miss. Get into it, it will not miss. Railroads are going like its the 1860's all over again. All on board. CHOO CHOO.
5. INTC - People say since AMD(their closest competitor) missed so badly last week that this singles a huge miss for Intel. Intel did have a terrible last quarter and the stock has jumped from 17 back to 21 but the Bull still has doubts. The Bull would stay clear of this stock tomorrow. But the Bull is never one to back down from putting himself out there so the Bull predicts a miss and the stock is heading back down.
WED:
1. IBM -
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
What does the Bull like for tomorrow?
Penny Stocks: Long CHHB, RHWI, BPWI, DPHG, SAMBW. Short: RYMM, GAGI, PANNF, NTHD, SHZO.
Long: BDAY(tight limit sell), SIRI, IMB, FLY(tight limit sell), DAL(hope you are already in since the Bull said to get in yesterday), FRX(earnings I think they beat as well, get in), GS(it belongs in 170s, this is a week play), JOEZ(will beat earnings as well), IIIN(I think they beat as well).
Premarket: INOC, and FBR are both possible longs.
The Bull realizes most of you are reading this and saying "BULL, we Love you but everywhere we turn we hear how this might be the worst earnings quarter of this decade, so how can you be so Bullish?" Just as Jesus himself was doubted endlessly by his disciples in the book of Mark, the Bull to will be doubted until the day he passes into the heavens and only then will the people realize who the Bull truly is.
Here ends the reading of the The Bull, Chapter 4, verse 14.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Earnings Week
The Bull is excited to be back for his favorite weeks of the year. EARNINGS WEEK(more like Earnings Month).
Here is the Bull's personal earning calendar for week.
Monday:
1. XTO - They are trading near 52 week high, related companies have posted beats so far for the past quarter. Makes me think this is a play. Maybe only a 4-5% jump but its stil 4-5%.
2. SCHW - Yes, many people are getting out of stocks but schawb attends to have more "professional" traders who realize a volatile market is the best market. Their volume will be high and I expect them to beat earnings as well.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ
2. NTRS
3. USB
4. CSX
5. INTC
WED:
1. IBM
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
I only filled in my opinions on Monday's stocks but I will fill in the rest tomorrow. The Bull has had a couple unexpected events happen tonight which he has had to deal with and has dealt with and achieved the usual success but I will fill in the rest and give the whisper earnings the Bull has.
Penny Stocks:
Short DGCO,SAMBW; Long HGLC, XQST, PXBM - They are all high volume high trade stocks so easy to get in and get out.
Tomorrow:
Long: DAL, DLA(have close limit sell on it), AAI,EEV(actually a short), CETV, CIEN,
Short: Everything else
Got pre-market capability?
I would short CMLS, ASTIZ, APO and KEG and buy OCNW(made us a lot of money in the start), SAL, BMP, and ABII.
Look tomorrow for the greatest earnings post you will have ever seen.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 13.
The Divine Bull
Here is the Bull's personal earning calendar for week.
Monday:
1. XTO - They are trading near 52 week high, related companies have posted beats so far for the past quarter. Makes me think this is a play. Maybe only a 4-5% jump but its stil 4-5%.
2. SCHW - Yes, many people are getting out of stocks but schawb attends to have more "professional" traders who realize a volatile market is the best market. Their volume will be high and I expect them to beat earnings as well.
Tuesday:
1. JNJ
2. NTRS
3. USB
4. CSX
5. INTC
WED:
1. IBM
2. WFC
3. KO
4. JPM
5. AMR - SHORT
6. EBAY
Thursday:
1. GOOG
2. HOG
3. PFE
4. AMTD
5. MER
6. ETFC
7. CTX
Friday:
1. C
2. WB
3. HON
4. CAT
I only filled in my opinions on Monday's stocks but I will fill in the rest tomorrow. The Bull has had a couple unexpected events happen tonight which he has had to deal with and has dealt with and achieved the usual success but I will fill in the rest and give the whisper earnings the Bull has.
Penny Stocks:
Short DGCO,SAMBW; Long HGLC, XQST, PXBM - They are all high volume high trade stocks so easy to get in and get out.
Tomorrow:
Long: DAL, DLA(have close limit sell on it), AAI,EEV(actually a short), CETV, CIEN,
Short: Everything else
Got pre-market capability?
I would short CMLS, ASTIZ, APO and KEG and buy OCNW(made us a lot of money in the start), SAL, BMP, and ABII.
Look tomorrow for the greatest earnings post you will have ever seen.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter 4, verse 13.
The Divine Bull
Bull related news
The Bull is back from another gruelling week of business deals that covered the entire eastern realm of the United States. As usual, the Bull's trip was of the utmost success but he is happy to be back home in time to catch the Sunday Round of the Masters.
On a stock related note, the Bull's streak of 18 straight days his longs were in "black" is now over with a crushing day on Friday that saw the Bull enter the zone of red(The now 15 day streak of shorts being in red is still intact).
The Bull was talking to a golf guru who many in my circle of friends call "GOD". I told GOD that Tiger would shoot a 68 on Saturday, this of course is exactly what Tiger shot. I talked to GOD again this morning and mentioned that I had money on TIGER to win the masters at 15-1 odds today and GOD laughed saying Tiger was not going to pull it off. Will God or the Bull prevail?
God and the Bull also have a gentleman's bet of 5,000 dollars on who will finish higher. Tiger or Phil. The Bull has Tiger and God has Phil. I am feeling that is 5,000 in the bag.
Fantasy baseball related I have two huge announcements. My best friend in the fantasy baseball league decided pretty much give me Chase Utley, Ben Sheets(2 starts, 15k's, ZERO ERA), and Matt Kemp(young stud) for Roy Halladay(Sheets is better), Jim Thome(180 average) and Dustin Pedoria(who my friend seems to love). Needless to say the BUll was thrilled by this. The Bull also added Grady Siezmore to his potent lineup in a 6 player swap. The BUll officially starts this league tomorrow against his friend who gave him Chase Utley. Wish the Bull luck.
The Bull was in DC on Friday and got a chance to meet with many of his highly influential friends on capitol hill and on "K" street. There was some huge stock news given to the Bull which he will share throughout the next few weeks in this blog.
The Bull has to go turn on his plasma and enjoy Tigers victory lap. There will be a stock related post tonight.
The BULL
On a stock related note, the Bull's streak of 18 straight days his longs were in "black" is now over with a crushing day on Friday that saw the Bull enter the zone of red(The now 15 day streak of shorts being in red is still intact).
The Bull was talking to a golf guru who many in my circle of friends call "GOD". I told GOD that Tiger would shoot a 68 on Saturday, this of course is exactly what Tiger shot. I talked to GOD again this morning and mentioned that I had money on TIGER to win the masters at 15-1 odds today and GOD laughed saying Tiger was not going to pull it off. Will God or the Bull prevail?
God and the Bull also have a gentleman's bet of 5,000 dollars on who will finish higher. Tiger or Phil. The Bull has Tiger and God has Phil. I am feeling that is 5,000 in the bag.
Fantasy baseball related I have two huge announcements. My best friend in the fantasy baseball league decided pretty much give me Chase Utley, Ben Sheets(2 starts, 15k's, ZERO ERA), and Matt Kemp(young stud) for Roy Halladay(Sheets is better), Jim Thome(180 average) and Dustin Pedoria(who my friend seems to love). Needless to say the BUll was thrilled by this. The Bull also added Grady Siezmore to his potent lineup in a 6 player swap. The BUll officially starts this league tomorrow against his friend who gave him Chase Utley. Wish the Bull luck.
The Bull was in DC on Friday and got a chance to meet with many of his highly influential friends on capitol hill and on "K" street. There was some huge stock news given to the Bull which he will share throughout the next few weeks in this blog.
The Bull has to go turn on his plasma and enjoy Tigers victory lap. There will be a stock related post tonight.
The BULL
Thursday, April 10, 2008
The Bull's Amazing Day
There are times when the Bull just wonders how he does it. How does the Bull manage to be up 25.49% today when he owns 18 different stocks. Well their percent up for the Bull today were in order from highest to lowest: 100%, 68.75%, 67.33%, 35.71%, 33.33%, 26.67%, 25%, 23.93%, 19.76%, 9%, 8.91%, 8.34%, 6.19%, 0%, -.68%, -1.17%, -1.76%.
Of course if that is not enough the Bull's shorts were down 10.77% on five different shorts.
The Bull was going to take your inside the mind of the Bull but for reasons the Bull cannot post, that blog entry will have to wait for another day.
So I will get right to my take on tomorrow's market.
Biggest news of the day is GE reporting earnings. They are the barometer of the entire worlds economy and the market loves to follow their earnings. The good news is that 2 of the last 3 quarters they have beat earnings but the bad news is that they are only 3 for 11 in the last 11 quarters. But they have also beat earnings their last 3 "fourth quarters". But will the earnings really matter or will the guidance mean everything. Its a mixture of both and I would not short or long this stock since it moves with such large volume its hard to get a big swing either way.
There are only five companies reporting earnings and the only other one worth mentioning is EXH which I do see beating earnings and getting positive guidance.
The Bull likes PTRY as a come back play but would set a limit at around 10.50 in case the stock does have another 33% drop. The best play would be to buy this stock and then get some put options on it to limit risk.
I would also be long in PSMT, BGP, BHI, GAFC, BRWC.
The Bull wishes he could post his original entry but he will post it at a later date when the time is right.
The Bull
Of course if that is not enough the Bull's shorts were down 10.77% on five different shorts.
The Bull was going to take your inside the mind of the Bull but for reasons the Bull cannot post, that blog entry will have to wait for another day.
So I will get right to my take on tomorrow's market.
Biggest news of the day is GE reporting earnings. They are the barometer of the entire worlds economy and the market loves to follow their earnings. The good news is that 2 of the last 3 quarters they have beat earnings but the bad news is that they are only 3 for 11 in the last 11 quarters. But they have also beat earnings their last 3 "fourth quarters". But will the earnings really matter or will the guidance mean everything. Its a mixture of both and I would not short or long this stock since it moves with such large volume its hard to get a big swing either way.
There are only five companies reporting earnings and the only other one worth mentioning is EXH which I do see beating earnings and getting positive guidance.
The Bull likes PTRY as a come back play but would set a limit at around 10.50 in case the stock does have another 33% drop. The best play would be to buy this stock and then get some put options on it to limit risk.
I would also be long in PSMT, BGP, BHI, GAFC, BRWC.
The Bull wishes he could post his original entry but he will post it at a later date when the time is right.
The Bull
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
When in Despair
When in Despair the Bull is there people.
Tomorrow I see great things for all of my faithful followers. The JR Bull has been telling us all for many weeks now about the financials surge upward and he has been correct so far. Something, the Bull cannot place his hand on it, but something is telling the Bull the financials are going to make a run upward tomorrow. Is it the Bulls imagination or is it a message from above? For tomorrow we will find out how divine the Bull really is.
What does the Bull like tomorrow:
The Bull loves his financials, He loves Citigroup(C), He loves LEH, UBS, GS, and on and on. The Bull feels that divine feeling that is indescribable.
The Bull loves XTNT, HNAB, and ACAT at the prices they are at at the end of the after hours are a steal for any Bull. I would make a bid for them or buy right at open if they stay at the prices they are at which are (5.00, 0.93, and 6.38).
The Bull also wants his disciples to be long in MYGN, AUEGF, HGLC, DE, VRTX, BMRN, ARBA, JBHT, W, KB, and BULL.
Short Wise: Bull would be short in RAMEW, ACCP, and VTLAF. I would look to short if they open at their current prices, PIII, NGSX, NENG, TRMM, and BEAR.
The Bull has two intersting articles for everyone:
First up AOL's best offshore bank account spots:
http://money.aol.com/forbes/tax/worlds-top-tax-havens
- I will comment on this tomorrow but needless to say the list is inane.
Here is a wonderful article on the art of the hedge fund, the people interviewed are minor league players but I think its a great read for everyone who thinks bankers, and investment bankers run the show:
http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/bizfinance/finance/features/10426/
Here are the Bull's favorite parts:
"“You work for us,” Zachary likes to let Harry know. Zachary represents a two-year-old hedge fund called Pirate Capital, a name that Zachary says gets people’s attention. (And if that doesn’t, then the 32 percent returns per year do.) For $20 million, Pirate purchased 13 percent of Harry’s company, which runs prisons. This makes Pirate Harry’s largest shareholder and, as Zachary sees it, Harry’s boss."
- Most people don't look at businesses like this but this is how they are looked upon on Wall Street. The largest shareholder is the true CEO.
"“Investment bankers?” says one hedge-fund guy. “Their lives are miserable.” He ticks off the shortcomings—he seems to have been keeping track. The punishing hours, the endless pitching, and all those dull, needy clients. What could be worse? Perhaps only a job at a sleepy mutual fund, a plain vanilla, as the hedge-fund managers sometimes call them."
- The Bull's thoughts exactly.
By comparison, the hedge-fund manager’s life seems effortless. Gloriously client-free and with reasonable hours. “I got into this business,” says one hedge guy—is he stifling a yawn?—“so I could make money while I sleep.”
- The last line might be the funniest in the article but only shows this "hedge fund manager" is clueless.
"The investment banker talks your ear off, charms you with his minor gifts. And for what? To give advice. There’s a hedge-fund put-down. “We get to pull the trigger,” says one manager."
- Why the Bull can never understand why people go to work for investment banks.
"Just for the pleasure of illustrating the point, one hedge-fund guy sitting at a café in a burgundy golf shirt—he has no clients and thus no dress code—grabs his cell phone off the table. “Give me $100 million of . . . ,” he says, and names the company. “That’s how hard it is.” It’s that easy if—and here’s the implication—you have the nerve. As one hedge manager all but snorted, “Bankers have no appetite for risk.”"
- No appetite for risk answers my previous question.
"And so, he tells you what financial advisers tell most every hapless investor. Diversify your portfolio and your asset classes. Which is his way of letting you know he’s not going to actually manage your money. Rather, he’ll divide it into a few asset buckets and diversify it by industry group, and then he’s going to, as Loeb says of Ross, “extract his fee,” which, though he does his work up front, must be paid each year.
For most hedge-fund managers, this is insanity. “You might as well walk through Times Square with money sticking out of your pockets and yell, ‘Rob me!’ ” says one. Hedge funds don’t, as a rule, take the diversified view, an attempt, in their mind, to perform just like everyone else. They’re looking for winners. Their goal is to get in near the bottom and slip out of the way when the top crests."
- Couldn't agree more, wouldn't your rather own 10 stocks in the best sector than the best stocks in the worst sectors?
"To a hedge-fund manager’s mind, mutual funds, or plain vanillas, are lazy. Vanillas, so the thinking goes, make their money through their vast marketing machine. Their investment goal is simply not to lose more than the market average. “My eyes glaze over when people start talking about their performance relative to an index,” says Loeb. “I’m an absolute-return guy,” says another manager. After all, no profits, no bonus."
- The Bull shoots for 5% a day regardless of how the market is doing.
"And so, for hedge-fund managers, investing is an aggressor’s game. “If you’re buying into the market,” points out one, “then, by definition, you’re saying the person selling to you is an idiot.”"
- Luckily there is plenty of idiots out there.
“Diversification is deworsification,” says Carvin, then tosses his head back and laughs like Beavis."
- Agreed
"Every dollar ticks with pressure. You report to investors every month. You earn bonuses every year. “I have to make money every day,” says one hedge-fund guy."
- The Bull charts how he does every hour. One down hour and he goes nuts.
The Bull has to go go get some sleep, for Miami demands the Bull be at his usual best.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter four, verse 8.
The Bull
Tomorrow I see great things for all of my faithful followers. The JR Bull has been telling us all for many weeks now about the financials surge upward and he has been correct so far. Something, the Bull cannot place his hand on it, but something is telling the Bull the financials are going to make a run upward tomorrow. Is it the Bulls imagination or is it a message from above? For tomorrow we will find out how divine the Bull really is.
What does the Bull like tomorrow:
The Bull loves his financials, He loves Citigroup(C), He loves LEH, UBS, GS, and on and on. The Bull feels that divine feeling that is indescribable.
The Bull loves XTNT, HNAB, and ACAT at the prices they are at at the end of the after hours are a steal for any Bull. I would make a bid for them or buy right at open if they stay at the prices they are at which are (5.00, 0.93, and 6.38).
The Bull also wants his disciples to be long in MYGN, AUEGF, HGLC, DE, VRTX, BMRN, ARBA, JBHT, W, KB, and BULL.
Short Wise: Bull would be short in RAMEW, ACCP, and VTLAF. I would look to short if they open at their current prices, PIII, NGSX, NENG, TRMM, and BEAR.
The Bull has two intersting articles for everyone:
First up AOL's best offshore bank account spots:
http://money.aol.com/forbes/tax/worlds-top-tax-havens
- I will comment on this tomorrow but needless to say the list is inane.
Here is a wonderful article on the art of the hedge fund, the people interviewed are minor league players but I think its a great read for everyone who thinks bankers, and investment bankers run the show:
http://nymag.com/nymetro/news/bizfinance/finance/features/10426/
Here are the Bull's favorite parts:
"“You work for us,” Zachary likes to let Harry know. Zachary represents a two-year-old hedge fund called Pirate Capital, a name that Zachary says gets people’s attention. (And if that doesn’t, then the 32 percent returns per year do.) For $20 million, Pirate purchased 13 percent of Harry’s company, which runs prisons. This makes Pirate Harry’s largest shareholder and, as Zachary sees it, Harry’s boss."
- Most people don't look at businesses like this but this is how they are looked upon on Wall Street. The largest shareholder is the true CEO.
"“Investment bankers?” says one hedge-fund guy. “Their lives are miserable.” He ticks off the shortcomings—he seems to have been keeping track. The punishing hours, the endless pitching, and all those dull, needy clients. What could be worse? Perhaps only a job at a sleepy mutual fund, a plain vanilla, as the hedge-fund managers sometimes call them."
- The Bull's thoughts exactly.
By comparison, the hedge-fund manager’s life seems effortless. Gloriously client-free and with reasonable hours. “I got into this business,” says one hedge guy—is he stifling a yawn?—“so I could make money while I sleep.”
- The last line might be the funniest in the article but only shows this "hedge fund manager" is clueless.
"The investment banker talks your ear off, charms you with his minor gifts. And for what? To give advice. There’s a hedge-fund put-down. “We get to pull the trigger,” says one manager."
- Why the Bull can never understand why people go to work for investment banks.
"Just for the pleasure of illustrating the point, one hedge-fund guy sitting at a café in a burgundy golf shirt—he has no clients and thus no dress code—grabs his cell phone off the table. “Give me $100 million of . . . ,” he says, and names the company. “That’s how hard it is.” It’s that easy if—and here’s the implication—you have the nerve. As one hedge manager all but snorted, “Bankers have no appetite for risk.”"
- No appetite for risk answers my previous question.
"And so, he tells you what financial advisers tell most every hapless investor. Diversify your portfolio and your asset classes. Which is his way of letting you know he’s not going to actually manage your money. Rather, he’ll divide it into a few asset buckets and diversify it by industry group, and then he’s going to, as Loeb says of Ross, “extract his fee,” which, though he does his work up front, must be paid each year.
For most hedge-fund managers, this is insanity. “You might as well walk through Times Square with money sticking out of your pockets and yell, ‘Rob me!’ ” says one. Hedge funds don’t, as a rule, take the diversified view, an attempt, in their mind, to perform just like everyone else. They’re looking for winners. Their goal is to get in near the bottom and slip out of the way when the top crests."
- Couldn't agree more, wouldn't your rather own 10 stocks in the best sector than the best stocks in the worst sectors?
"To a hedge-fund manager’s mind, mutual funds, or plain vanillas, are lazy. Vanillas, so the thinking goes, make their money through their vast marketing machine. Their investment goal is simply not to lose more than the market average. “My eyes glaze over when people start talking about their performance relative to an index,” says Loeb. “I’m an absolute-return guy,” says another manager. After all, no profits, no bonus."
- The Bull shoots for 5% a day regardless of how the market is doing.
"And so, for hedge-fund managers, investing is an aggressor’s game. “If you’re buying into the market,” points out one, “then, by definition, you’re saying the person selling to you is an idiot.”"
- Luckily there is plenty of idiots out there.
“Diversification is deworsification,” says Carvin, then tosses his head back and laughs like Beavis."
- Agreed
"Every dollar ticks with pressure. You report to investors every month. You earn bonuses every year. “I have to make money every day,” says one hedge-fund guy."
- The Bull charts how he does every hour. One down hour and he goes nuts.
The Bull has to go go get some sleep, for Miami demands the Bull be at his usual best.
Here ends the reading of The Bull Chapter four, verse 8.
The Bull
THE BULLLLLL IS BACCCCKKKKK
THE BULL IS BACKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!!!!
The Bull was walking down Wall Street yesterday evening in his Hickey Freeman suit thinking about how great life is after his record 15th straight day in black on his longs and 12th straight day in black on his shorts(both records on the street). The Bull was loving life and enjoying his retirement from all the haters on this blog but much like Jesus Christ in Matthew Chapter 1, verse 12-21; the sky all of sudden opened up and a light shined down on the Bull's 2,500 dollar suit and he heard the voice of the ultimate Bull and the voice said "BULL, Your duties are not yet fulfilled, the poor have not become the rich, the meek have not become strong, the BEARS HAVE NOT BECOME EXTINCT!!!!!!!!!!" The light went away, the clouds came back and the Bull realized that he had business to finish and the BULL IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Bull opened up the scriptures that were given to him by the ultimate bull and he reads a section from "Bull, Chapter 12, verse 23-27): "The Bull will not be resurrected until the day when the haters become the lovers, the lovers begin to lose all faith in the Bull, and the bears are running wall street". Well that day has come folks, the bears are running us back to 11,500 and the Fed has given in to them. The Bull has been resurrected and is better than ever!!!!!!!! FOR THE BULL IS BACK!!!!!
The Bull will be back tonight with some picks for all of his congregation but until then here are a few side notes.
The Bull has to travel to Miami tomorrow morning on his Gulf Stream and then flies to Washington DC on Friday but the BULL WILL BE POSTING. For the Ultimate Bull demands nothing less.
The Bull had his fantasy baseball draft last night in a league that costs more than most of the readers on this blog make and here is the Bull's team (10 team, 22 players per team)
1. AROD - Simply the best player in baseball(The Bull had the first pick)
2. Jake Peavy - 2-0, .054 ERA (Not bad for 20th pick)
3. Vlad - 320, 35 homers, 15 stolen bases.
4. Travis Hafner - A steal at 40, all he does is hit homeruns, and get RBI's.
5. Troy Tulowski - Star shortstup with terrmendous upside.
6. Dan Uggla - 2nd baseman is slim choosing and he might be the second best.
7. Jason Bay - Slumped last year, not this year.
8. Jim Thome - J has promised big things, I await them.
9. Roy Halladay - 9th round, are you kidding the Bull?
10. Mariona Rivera - 45 saves
11. Matt Cain - If he gets run support top 10 pitcher.
12. Kenji Johimjia - Top 3 catcher
13. Jacob Ellsbury - Played like top 10 fantasy outfielder last year.
14. Dustin Pedoria - Great backup infielder, great trade bait.
15. Tim Hudson - 17-7, 3.45 ERA this year.
16. Todd Jones - If Tigers decide to start playing should get 40 saves.
17. Phil Hughes - Living in NYC I promise 16 wins.
18. Joe Browoski - 40 saves.
19. Tony Pena - 35 saves.
20. Hank Blalock - hoping for a 2004 type year.
21. Rich Harden - Could be steal of draft.
22. Carlos Gomez - Will be steal of draft with 60 steals(big add is saying 80)
The Bull
The Bull was walking down Wall Street yesterday evening in his Hickey Freeman suit thinking about how great life is after his record 15th straight day in black on his longs and 12th straight day in black on his shorts(both records on the street). The Bull was loving life and enjoying his retirement from all the haters on this blog but much like Jesus Christ in Matthew Chapter 1, verse 12-21; the sky all of sudden opened up and a light shined down on the Bull's 2,500 dollar suit and he heard the voice of the ultimate Bull and the voice said "BULL, Your duties are not yet fulfilled, the poor have not become the rich, the meek have not become strong, the BEARS HAVE NOT BECOME EXTINCT!!!!!!!!!!" The light went away, the clouds came back and the Bull realized that he had business to finish and the BULL IS BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Bull opened up the scriptures that were given to him by the ultimate bull and he reads a section from "Bull, Chapter 12, verse 23-27): "The Bull will not be resurrected until the day when the haters become the lovers, the lovers begin to lose all faith in the Bull, and the bears are running wall street". Well that day has come folks, the bears are running us back to 11,500 and the Fed has given in to them. The Bull has been resurrected and is better than ever!!!!!!!! FOR THE BULL IS BACK!!!!!
The Bull will be back tonight with some picks for all of his congregation but until then here are a few side notes.
The Bull has to travel to Miami tomorrow morning on his Gulf Stream and then flies to Washington DC on Friday but the BULL WILL BE POSTING. For the Ultimate Bull demands nothing less.
The Bull had his fantasy baseball draft last night in a league that costs more than most of the readers on this blog make and here is the Bull's team (10 team, 22 players per team)
1. AROD - Simply the best player in baseball(The Bull had the first pick)
2. Jake Peavy - 2-0, .054 ERA (Not bad for 20th pick)
3. Vlad - 320, 35 homers, 15 stolen bases.
4. Travis Hafner - A steal at 40, all he does is hit homeruns, and get RBI's.
5. Troy Tulowski - Star shortstup with terrmendous upside.
6. Dan Uggla - 2nd baseman is slim choosing and he might be the second best.
7. Jason Bay - Slumped last year, not this year.
8. Jim Thome - J has promised big things, I await them.
9. Roy Halladay - 9th round, are you kidding the Bull?
10. Mariona Rivera - 45 saves
11. Matt Cain - If he gets run support top 10 pitcher.
12. Kenji Johimjia - Top 3 catcher
13. Jacob Ellsbury - Played like top 10 fantasy outfielder last year.
14. Dustin Pedoria - Great backup infielder, great trade bait.
15. Tim Hudson - 17-7, 3.45 ERA this year.
16. Todd Jones - If Tigers decide to start playing should get 40 saves.
17. Phil Hughes - Living in NYC I promise 16 wins.
18. Joe Browoski - 40 saves.
19. Tony Pena - 35 saves.
20. Hank Blalock - hoping for a 2004 type year.
21. Rich Harden - Could be steal of draft.
22. Carlos Gomez - Will be steal of draft with 60 steals(big add is saying 80)
The Bull
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
The Crucifiction of the Bull
Please allow the Bull to begin with the obvious. Today was an amazing day for all of us in the market. The Bull was up 21.42% in his longs and was up(meaning gained) 10.81% in his shorts. Now I am sure all of you are asking, how did the Bull make 10.81% shorting when the market was up almost 400 points? Well simple, last night the Junior Bull wrote the Senior Bull about the impending rise of the Financial sector and begged the Bull to stop doubting his "bullish financial views" and for "the sake of the Bullls money" to buy up all financial stocks and SHORT the Financial shorts ETF. So I went short in SKF(This is an ETF that shorts the financial market) and made a killing.
Now lets get down to business.
Three months ago while the Bull was sleeping in his million dollar penthouse he had a dream in which the holy market angel Jim Cramer came to him and said "Bull, you have made billions but the higher power wants you to reshape your life and help the meek". The Bull was startled and didn't know what to do. The Bull continued to print money for himself but then God himself appeared in a burning bush to the Bull and called on him to be the savior of the people. He told the Bull after all his schooling, after all his years on the market it was time to show the world the light, time to show the world that mutual funds and CD's are nothing but the Devil's work and time to lead the masses in the greatest revolt since Jesus Christ walked this earth some 2,000 years ago. This is what brought the Bull to where he is today.
The Bull had no idea how he would get a large gathering but his angles told him to build a blog and "they will come". The Bull one bright glorious day started this blog and threw out his stock picks. The Bull went from 5 followers to 50 then to 500, next to 5,000 and now over a million. The Bull got to have such a large and loyal gathering that the empire of wall street grew sick and scared of the Bull and his masses and launched an assault to ruin the Bull and stricken his name from discussion, but the Bull would have nothing of it and continued to fight for the masses and the Bull continued to win against the billion dollar hedge funds because he had the higher power on his side. But as Jesus Christ himself, the Bull was done in by some of his most loyal followers.
The Bull was always loyal to his followers but his followers became greedier and greedier over time before finally they stabbed him in the back. His followers finally started to believe the myriad of other blogs that sought to bring down the Bull. They believed the Bull cared more about his own money than all of his followers but they were foolishly wrong. The Bull could have went on making billions for himself but he followed his calling. Like Aeneas he knew that fate was something that could not be stopped, you can fight fate but you can never break fate. The Bull gave up his life for the masses but in return they did nothing but cast thy first stone.
The enemies of the Bull finally got his loyal following to turn their backs upon him and they nailed him to cross. His followers could have taken him down but they decided to hammer the nails into the Bull himself. Every comment about the Bull manipulating ATPL was one more nail into the Bulls arm. Every comment about how the Bull didn't care about anyone was another ounce of will he lost for living. His followers were what always made the Bull survive but in the end, they are what killed the Bull.
The Bull came in a time when the masses needed a savior. The market was at 11,600 and the masses were crying about losing their wives, houses and lives. The Bull was the answer to every one's problem. The Bull raised the market up over a thousand points and gave hope to all who listened. But every success of the Bull was just one more step towards his eventual fall. His followers went from disciples to competitors. They thought that reading this blog, a couple books and Forbes magazine would give them the ability to match the Bull but in time they will be proved wrong. The Bull dreaded but knew this day would come, it is inevitable in the end. The student will always try to pass the teacher I suppose.
The Bull has been stranded on the cross all day and has looked towards the sky and asked his father to please take him, take him back to his 50 million dollar apartment, take him back to his old life. The Bull tried Lord, you know I tried but in the end this was my fate all along. The Bull goes now, one more negative comment away from death.
May God be with you all, it has been a pleasure.
The Bull
Now lets get down to business.
Three months ago while the Bull was sleeping in his million dollar penthouse he had a dream in which the holy market angel Jim Cramer came to him and said "Bull, you have made billions but the higher power wants you to reshape your life and help the meek". The Bull was startled and didn't know what to do. The Bull continued to print money for himself but then God himself appeared in a burning bush to the Bull and called on him to be the savior of the people. He told the Bull after all his schooling, after all his years on the market it was time to show the world the light, time to show the world that mutual funds and CD's are nothing but the Devil's work and time to lead the masses in the greatest revolt since Jesus Christ walked this earth some 2,000 years ago. This is what brought the Bull to where he is today.
The Bull had no idea how he would get a large gathering but his angles told him to build a blog and "they will come". The Bull one bright glorious day started this blog and threw out his stock picks. The Bull went from 5 followers to 50 then to 500, next to 5,000 and now over a million. The Bull got to have such a large and loyal gathering that the empire of wall street grew sick and scared of the Bull and his masses and launched an assault to ruin the Bull and stricken his name from discussion, but the Bull would have nothing of it and continued to fight for the masses and the Bull continued to win against the billion dollar hedge funds because he had the higher power on his side. But as Jesus Christ himself, the Bull was done in by some of his most loyal followers.
The Bull was always loyal to his followers but his followers became greedier and greedier over time before finally they stabbed him in the back. His followers finally started to believe the myriad of other blogs that sought to bring down the Bull. They believed the Bull cared more about his own money than all of his followers but they were foolishly wrong. The Bull could have went on making billions for himself but he followed his calling. Like Aeneas he knew that fate was something that could not be stopped, you can fight fate but you can never break fate. The Bull gave up his life for the masses but in return they did nothing but cast thy first stone.
The enemies of the Bull finally got his loyal following to turn their backs upon him and they nailed him to cross. His followers could have taken him down but they decided to hammer the nails into the Bull himself. Every comment about the Bull manipulating ATPL was one more nail into the Bulls arm. Every comment about how the Bull didn't care about anyone was another ounce of will he lost for living. His followers were what always made the Bull survive but in the end, they are what killed the Bull.
The Bull came in a time when the masses needed a savior. The market was at 11,600 and the masses were crying about losing their wives, houses and lives. The Bull was the answer to every one's problem. The Bull raised the market up over a thousand points and gave hope to all who listened. But every success of the Bull was just one more step towards his eventual fall. His followers went from disciples to competitors. They thought that reading this blog, a couple books and Forbes magazine would give them the ability to match the Bull but in time they will be proved wrong. The Bull dreaded but knew this day would come, it is inevitable in the end. The student will always try to pass the teacher I suppose.
The Bull has been stranded on the cross all day and has looked towards the sky and asked his father to please take him, take him back to his 50 million dollar apartment, take him back to his old life. The Bull tried Lord, you know I tried but in the end this was my fate all along. The Bull goes now, one more negative comment away from death.
May God be with you all, it has been a pleasure.
The Bull
Sunday, March 30, 2008
The Bull's Divine Wisdom
As much as the Bull loves to share stories from his non-stop action packed life, this blog is for stock picks and its time to get back down to business.
The Bull has talked about "short squeezes" many times before and basically for review, a short squeeze happens when a stock that has a large shares of their stock sold "short" gets some sort of catalyst(good news) and the stock jumps say 3-5%, the people who are short get scared and try to cover(meaning buy the stock) which causes the stock to go up another 3-5%, then more shorts get scared and this goes on and on until a stock jumps 30 or more percent. This is known as a short squeeze or squeezing the shorts.
Well here are the Bull's top nine short squeeze plays:
1. BRKR: Short interest ratio: 5 Insider Buying: $2M Bruker BioSciences Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, service, and marketing of analytical and life science systems and associated products worldwide.
2. CKR - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $10M CKE Restaurants, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, operation, franchising, and licensing of quick-service and fast-casual restaurants in the United States. It operates its restaurants primarily under the brand names Carl's Jr., Hardee's, and La Salsa. Trades for 8x EBITDA
3. GGP - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $26.5M General Growth Properties, Inc. operates as a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust.
4. MFW - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $12M M&F Worldwide Corp., which produces licorice products and provides check-related services, said in early May that its first-quarter profit fell on higher expenses. Trades for 10x EBITDA.
5. BSG - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $1.7M Bisys Group Inc., which provides outsourcing services to businesses, said May 10th its fiscal third-quarter net income plunged from a year-ago period which included a large profit from discontinued operations. Trades for 9x EBITDA
6. TRN - Short interest ratio: 8 Insider Buying: $3.9M Trinity Industries, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various products and services for the transportation, industrial, construction, and energy sectors primarily in the United States. Trades for 9x EBITDA
7. NTRI - Short interest ratio: 10 Insider Buying: $8.7M Advancis Pharmaceutical Corporation engages in the development and commercialization of anti-infective drugs for the treatment various infectious diseases.
8. BABY - Short interest ratio: 11 Insider Buying: $3.3M Natus Medical Incorporated develops, manufactures, and markets neurodiagnostic and newborn care products.
9. VLNC - Short interest ratio: 15 Insider Buying: $2M Valence Technology, Inc. engages in the commercialization of phosphate-based lithium-ion rechargeable battery technology, known as Saphion.
These stocks are all being heavily shorted which means people believe these stocks should go down. Personally I believe only VLNC, and GGP are very dangerous plays. If you like risk and see a catalyst then these are your stocks.
PICKS FOR TOMORROW:
Here are 5 scientific picks based on the law of averages.
1. ARBA: Stock is down for three days in a row, in its history it has been down three days in a row 52 times and has come back with a positive day 40 of those times and the average one day return is 2.92%
2. CSCO: It is 37/47 in the same criteria with a one day return average of 2.38%
3. CIEN: 39/53 for average of 2.25%
4. ORCL: 36/53 for 1.72%
5. AMAT: 58/76 for 1.48%
What does this week have in store for us all?
It is a big week in many different sectors of the stock market and I will hold back from technical analysis but I will say I would be short in car manufactures like Ford(F), General Motors (GM) and Toyota(best ran in the world)(TM) as they report auto sales for march on Tuesday. Also watch out if you are in retail stocks. JC Pennies(JCP) lowering of their forecast is not a very good precursor for Target(TGT) and Wallmart(WMT) and other retailers who report same store sales on this thursday. To go along with these Best Buy(BBY) reports earnings this week and I think they will miss big time. I would have puts or be short. No one is buying technology these days, I think JC Pennies weak easter sales will transfer over to best buy and the rest of the group. Also Dell has an analyst meeting and this stock is so cheap it might be worth a look but HP(HPQ) is such a better computer maker and business I would not strongly look to hard into it.
It seems a large percentage of the commenter's are either short or long in the stock TMA and it is down 18% coming into Monday but I think this further delay they were granted on Saturday shows that the banks know the deal has to get done and this stock will be saved. I would not be short in this stock.
A lot of times the best way to predict the market is to copy the "whales" and "insiders" since it would seem that billion dollar hedge funds must get things right the majority of the time and therefore I bring you ten stock I see unusual option activity in(for the last week).
1. WM - Jan09 15 dollar put
2. MTG - Jan09 25 dollar call
3. SPY - Both Sept08 134 Call and Put(this means the stock will be volatile but people don't know which way, its called a long straddle and the person makes money as long as the stock does not stay at where it is).
4. PDE - OCT08 35 call
5. MSFT - JULY08 22.5 PUT(Bull does not agree)
6. AW - Jan09 - 10 dollar put.
7. MYGN - AUG08 40 dollar put
8. HPQ - AUG08 45 dollar put(Bull does not agree)
9. IBM - MAY08 135 call
10. AERG - JAN09 2.5 call, JAN09 5 call
Bull also has 6 stock upgrades that he agrees with:
1. X - Rating on US Steel (X) was raised to Buy, Merrill Lynch said. $150 price target. Estimates also raised, to reflect strong steel pricing. 100% vertical integration allos the company to better manage rising raw materials costs.
2. ADI - Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Analog Devices (ADI) to Buy from Neutral based on strong position realtive to other analog stocks. See heavy exposure to instrial end markets as major positive. Price target upped to $34 from $28.
3. ISIL -Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Intersil (ISIL) to Buy from Neutral based on new product cycle in notebooks, LCD DTV/displays and wireless handsets. Expect stock to fare better than peers during current downturn. Price target raised to $31 from $24.
4. LEH - Lehman (LEH) was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Citigroup said. $65 price target. Attractive buying opportunity, after being on the sidelines for a couple of years. Government support will likely stop any further liquidity-driven meltdown.
5. LLTC - Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Linear Technology (LLTC) to Buy from Neutral. Positives include limited exposure to wireless handsets and consumer along with premier business model and adjustable spending. Price target pushed to $36 from $30.
6. MUR - Murphy Oil (MUR) was upgraded to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. $104 price target. Company is one of the most leveraged to rising oil prices. Deutsche Bank said it is upgrading MUR to a Buy rating due to higher oil price forecast. Target price now $104.
Two Penny stocks for people(I do not advise buying but if you wan't to, I own none of these for full disclosure)
1. REDE - Stock had a late drop off to 54 cents. RedEnvelope, Inc. operates as an online retailer of branded gifts in the United States. The company primarily offers jewelry, home products, men's and women's accessories, and new baby gifts through its catalog, Web store, and phone store. Its Web store enables customers to search gifts by recipient, occasion, category, and price point, as well as to register for the company's gift reminder service, sign up to receive email promotions, view order history, chat with a customer service representative, and request a catalog.
2. OCHT - stock is at 3.5 cents. Orchestra Therapeutics, Inc., an immuno-pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of various products to treat autoimmune and infectious diseases. It offers NeuroVax, an immune-based therapeutic product, which is based on T-cell receptor peptide technology for the treatment of multiple sclerosis. NeuroVax is in Phase II clinical trails
The BULL
The Bull has talked about "short squeezes" many times before and basically for review, a short squeeze happens when a stock that has a large shares of their stock sold "short" gets some sort of catalyst(good news) and the stock jumps say 3-5%, the people who are short get scared and try to cover(meaning buy the stock) which causes the stock to go up another 3-5%, then more shorts get scared and this goes on and on until a stock jumps 30 or more percent. This is known as a short squeeze or squeezing the shorts.
Well here are the Bull's top nine short squeeze plays:
1. BRKR: Short interest ratio: 5 Insider Buying: $2M Bruker BioSciences Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, service, and marketing of analytical and life science systems and associated products worldwide.
2. CKR - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $10M CKE Restaurants, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, operation, franchising, and licensing of quick-service and fast-casual restaurants in the United States. It operates its restaurants primarily under the brand names Carl's Jr., Hardee's, and La Salsa. Trades for 8x EBITDA
3. GGP - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $26.5M General Growth Properties, Inc. operates as a self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust.
4. MFW - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $12M M&F Worldwide Corp., which produces licorice products and provides check-related services, said in early May that its first-quarter profit fell on higher expenses. Trades for 10x EBITDA.
5. BSG - Short interest ratio: 6 Insider Buying: $1.7M Bisys Group Inc., which provides outsourcing services to businesses, said May 10th its fiscal third-quarter net income plunged from a year-ago period which included a large profit from discontinued operations. Trades for 9x EBITDA
6. TRN - Short interest ratio: 8 Insider Buying: $3.9M Trinity Industries, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various products and services for the transportation, industrial, construction, and energy sectors primarily in the United States. Trades for 9x EBITDA
7. NTRI - Short interest ratio: 10 Insider Buying: $8.7M Advancis Pharmaceutical Corporation engages in the development and commercialization of anti-infective drugs for the treatment various infectious diseases.
8. BABY - Short interest ratio: 11 Insider Buying: $3.3M Natus Medical Incorporated develops, manufactures, and markets neurodiagnostic and newborn care products.
9. VLNC - Short interest ratio: 15 Insider Buying: $2M Valence Technology, Inc. engages in the commercialization of phosphate-based lithium-ion rechargeable battery technology, known as Saphion.
These stocks are all being heavily shorted which means people believe these stocks should go down. Personally I believe only VLNC, and GGP are very dangerous plays. If you like risk and see a catalyst then these are your stocks.
PICKS FOR TOMORROW:
Here are 5 scientific picks based on the law of averages.
1. ARBA: Stock is down for three days in a row, in its history it has been down three days in a row 52 times and has come back with a positive day 40 of those times and the average one day return is 2.92%
2. CSCO: It is 37/47 in the same criteria with a one day return average of 2.38%
3. CIEN: 39/53 for average of 2.25%
4. ORCL: 36/53 for 1.72%
5. AMAT: 58/76 for 1.48%
What does this week have in store for us all?
It is a big week in many different sectors of the stock market and I will hold back from technical analysis but I will say I would be short in car manufactures like Ford(F), General Motors (GM) and Toyota(best ran in the world)(TM) as they report auto sales for march on Tuesday. Also watch out if you are in retail stocks. JC Pennies(JCP) lowering of their forecast is not a very good precursor for Target(TGT) and Wallmart(WMT) and other retailers who report same store sales on this thursday. To go along with these Best Buy(BBY) reports earnings this week and I think they will miss big time. I would have puts or be short. No one is buying technology these days, I think JC Pennies weak easter sales will transfer over to best buy and the rest of the group. Also Dell has an analyst meeting and this stock is so cheap it might be worth a look but HP(HPQ) is such a better computer maker and business I would not strongly look to hard into it.
It seems a large percentage of the commenter's are either short or long in the stock TMA and it is down 18% coming into Monday but I think this further delay they were granted on Saturday shows that the banks know the deal has to get done and this stock will be saved. I would not be short in this stock.
A lot of times the best way to predict the market is to copy the "whales" and "insiders" since it would seem that billion dollar hedge funds must get things right the majority of the time and therefore I bring you ten stock I see unusual option activity in(for the last week).
1. WM - Jan09 15 dollar put
2. MTG - Jan09 25 dollar call
3. SPY - Both Sept08 134 Call and Put(this means the stock will be volatile but people don't know which way, its called a long straddle and the person makes money as long as the stock does not stay at where it is).
4. PDE - OCT08 35 call
5. MSFT - JULY08 22.5 PUT(Bull does not agree)
6. AW - Jan09 - 10 dollar put.
7. MYGN - AUG08 40 dollar put
8. HPQ - AUG08 45 dollar put(Bull does not agree)
9. IBM - MAY08 135 call
10. AERG - JAN09 2.5 call, JAN09 5 call
Bull also has 6 stock upgrades that he agrees with:
1. X - Rating on US Steel (X) was raised to Buy, Merrill Lynch said. $150 price target. Estimates also raised, to reflect strong steel pricing. 100% vertical integration allos the company to better manage rising raw materials costs.
2. ADI - Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Analog Devices (ADI) to Buy from Neutral based on strong position realtive to other analog stocks. See heavy exposure to instrial end markets as major positive. Price target upped to $34 from $28.
3. ISIL -Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Intersil (ISIL) to Buy from Neutral based on new product cycle in notebooks, LCD DTV/displays and wireless handsets. Expect stock to fare better than peers during current downturn. Price target raised to $31 from $24.
4. LEH - Lehman (LEH) was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Citigroup said. $65 price target. Attractive buying opportunity, after being on the sidelines for a couple of years. Government support will likely stop any further liquidity-driven meltdown.
5. LLTC - Goldman Sachs said it is upgrading Linear Technology (LLTC) to Buy from Neutral. Positives include limited exposure to wireless handsets and consumer along with premier business model and adjustable spending. Price target pushed to $36 from $30.
6. MUR - Murphy Oil (MUR) was upgraded to Buy, Deutsche Bank said. $104 price target. Company is one of the most leveraged to rising oil prices. Deutsche Bank said it is upgrading MUR to a Buy rating due to higher oil price forecast. Target price now $104.
Two Penny stocks for people(I do not advise buying but if you wan't to, I own none of these for full disclosure)
1. REDE - Stock had a late drop off to 54 cents. RedEnvelope, Inc. operates as an online retailer of branded gifts in the United States. The company primarily offers jewelry, home products, men's and women's accessories, and new baby gifts through its catalog, Web store, and phone store. Its Web store enables customers to search gifts by recipient, occasion, category, and price point, as well as to register for the company's gift reminder service, sign up to receive email promotions, view order history, chat with a customer service representative, and request a catalog.
2. OCHT - stock is at 3.5 cents. Orchestra Therapeutics, Inc., an immuno-pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of various products to treat autoimmune and infectious diseases. It offers NeuroVax, an immune-based therapeutic product, which is based on T-cell receptor peptide technology for the treatment of multiple sclerosis. NeuroVax is in Phase II clinical trails
The BULL
Saturday, March 29, 2008
The Bull hits jackpot and goes to Charlotte
The Bull was back in black last night playing the wheel and he has a few observations from the floor of the casino:
1. The Recession is not hitting gamblers anonymous.
- I have been bearish on the large casino stocks these past few months due to the fact that people cannot afford the trip out to Las Vegas but that doesn't mean the local casino's are struggling. Traveling 5 miles down the road instead of 1,000 miles by plane makes going gambling a whole lot easier. The Bull prefers to play among his people(the masses) and not our lovely visitors from Hong Kong in the high stakes room. Last night I would honestly say that 90% of the people there made less than 30,000 dollars a year and most of them looked like they walked right out of the "hot soup" line at their local homeless shelter. These people clearly don't have the money to waste Benjamin Franklin's like the Bull does yet they play large amounts and lose time and time again. The recession can take food from peoples stomachs, water from their mouths, cable from their eyes, but it cannot take the joy of gambling from their hearts.
2. Free Comp's are anything but special.
- The Bull pulled up in his friends Rolls Royce and the Casino knew we were business but instead of greeting the Bull with three half naked women, a bottle of crystal and a key to the penthouse, they instead just asked the Bull if he wanted to sign up for a players card so "they could keep track of his play". Look, when the Bull is taking the casino for all its worth I promise you the casino will have all their cameras and attention solely on the Bull. After we settled in at the Roulette table and starting winning large amounts of money(I should say I started to win) the casino host came over and offered the Bull a free nights stay in a suite. The Bull personally took this as a slap in the face, here sits the Bull playing thousands of dollars a spin and they want to make him feel like a "special VIP" by offering him a room that runs at about 200 dollars a night? I tipped the fucking Valet on the way out of the casino more than 200 dollars for Christ sakes.
3. The Bull is amazed at how gullible and stupid people are.
- Of the 16 people at our roulette table, 12 of them had notebooks and pens to keep track of which numbers hit. I realize that over millions of spins it is 'possible' that a roulette table(due to its imperfections) will favor a segment of the wheel more than the other but do these people think taking the hottest number in the last 50 spins and betting it is going to make them millionaires? If these idiots spent that much time doing research on stock picks they would surely not be playing quarters a fucking time at the Roulette table.
4. What is the fun in betting pennies?
- The gentleman(20 year old) kid next to me was betting 4 quarters a time so he could match the dollar minimum bet(a quarter on even, one on red ect). What is the fun in that? At the end of the night he told his friend he was down 4 dollars after two hours of playing. The Bull would have given him 400 dollars to stop fucking looking at his bets and getting a boner every time the Bull hit yet another 35-1 number.
5. The Bull missed the Smoking is Mandatory sign.
- Is it just the Bull or does it seem it is mandatory to knock some years off of your life in the casino by smoking? The Bull doesn't give a shit what people do with their lives but why do these people feel the need to light up and blow in the Bulls direction. How do these people even afford cigarettes?
How did the Bull end up and the rest of his gang?
Well the leader of the Bull's pack is trying to save up for a life changing move and he was 66% of the way to the money he needed basically. Well last night he lost 15% of that 66% and spend the rest of the night telling the Bull how "stupid he is" like the Bull gives a rats ass. The Bull on the other hand played his game and got off to a great run before going through a slide in the middle and then ended strongly. The Bull pretty much came out even but if you want numbers the Bull made a pathetic 2,150 dollars. Not much to brag about.
Well the Bull has to go catch his plane to Charlotte to watch UNC take care of Pitino's boys. If UNC loses I will post daily this week, but they won't lose.
The Bull
1. The Recession is not hitting gamblers anonymous.
- I have been bearish on the large casino stocks these past few months due to the fact that people cannot afford the trip out to Las Vegas but that doesn't mean the local casino's are struggling. Traveling 5 miles down the road instead of 1,000 miles by plane makes going gambling a whole lot easier. The Bull prefers to play among his people(the masses) and not our lovely visitors from Hong Kong in the high stakes room. Last night I would honestly say that 90% of the people there made less than 30,000 dollars a year and most of them looked like they walked right out of the "hot soup" line at their local homeless shelter. These people clearly don't have the money to waste Benjamin Franklin's like the Bull does yet they play large amounts and lose time and time again. The recession can take food from peoples stomachs, water from their mouths, cable from their eyes, but it cannot take the joy of gambling from their hearts.
2. Free Comp's are anything but special.
- The Bull pulled up in his friends Rolls Royce and the Casino knew we were business but instead of greeting the Bull with three half naked women, a bottle of crystal and a key to the penthouse, they instead just asked the Bull if he wanted to sign up for a players card so "they could keep track of his play". Look, when the Bull is taking the casino for all its worth I promise you the casino will have all their cameras and attention solely on the Bull. After we settled in at the Roulette table and starting winning large amounts of money(I should say I started to win) the casino host came over and offered the Bull a free nights stay in a suite. The Bull personally took this as a slap in the face, here sits the Bull playing thousands of dollars a spin and they want to make him feel like a "special VIP" by offering him a room that runs at about 200 dollars a night? I tipped the fucking Valet on the way out of the casino more than 200 dollars for Christ sakes.
3. The Bull is amazed at how gullible and stupid people are.
- Of the 16 people at our roulette table, 12 of them had notebooks and pens to keep track of which numbers hit. I realize that over millions of spins it is 'possible' that a roulette table(due to its imperfections) will favor a segment of the wheel more than the other but do these people think taking the hottest number in the last 50 spins and betting it is going to make them millionaires? If these idiots spent that much time doing research on stock picks they would surely not be playing quarters a fucking time at the Roulette table.
4. What is the fun in betting pennies?
- The gentleman(20 year old) kid next to me was betting 4 quarters a time so he could match the dollar minimum bet(a quarter on even, one on red ect). What is the fun in that? At the end of the night he told his friend he was down 4 dollars after two hours of playing. The Bull would have given him 400 dollars to stop fucking looking at his bets and getting a boner every time the Bull hit yet another 35-1 number.
5. The Bull missed the Smoking is Mandatory sign.
- Is it just the Bull or does it seem it is mandatory to knock some years off of your life in the casino by smoking? The Bull doesn't give a shit what people do with their lives but why do these people feel the need to light up and blow in the Bulls direction. How do these people even afford cigarettes?
How did the Bull end up and the rest of his gang?
Well the leader of the Bull's pack is trying to save up for a life changing move and he was 66% of the way to the money he needed basically. Well last night he lost 15% of that 66% and spend the rest of the night telling the Bull how "stupid he is" like the Bull gives a rats ass. The Bull on the other hand played his game and got off to a great run before going through a slide in the middle and then ended strongly. The Bull pretty much came out even but if you want numbers the Bull made a pathetic 2,150 dollars. Not much to brag about.
Well the Bull has to go catch his plane to Charlotte to watch UNC take care of Pitino's boys. If UNC loses I will post daily this week, but they won't lose.
The Bull
Friday, March 28, 2008
Bull at Miami International
To all the Bulls,
I would like to comment on CCZ but I would rather not get myself into trouble and will just say I share all of your anger about the stock but at least no one lost any money.
How did the Bull do today?
Longs: up 31.56% (without CCZ)
Shorts: down(or up in terms of making me money) 6.48%
England: Up 3.34%
Asia: Up 2.62%
Australia: Up .84%
Canada: up 4.64%(rebounded from yesterday's disaster)
Currency: up 1.37%
Futures: DOWN 2.73%
The Bull has a lot to say but his flight is about to leave so he best be going. The Bull needs to be back for a friends party at a casino tonight. I will let all the bulls know how that goes.
The Bull
I would like to comment on CCZ but I would rather not get myself into trouble and will just say I share all of your anger about the stock but at least no one lost any money.
How did the Bull do today?
Longs: up 31.56% (without CCZ)
Shorts: down(or up in terms of making me money) 6.48%
England: Up 3.34%
Asia: Up 2.62%
Australia: Up .84%
Canada: up 4.64%(rebounded from yesterday's disaster)
Currency: up 1.37%
Futures: DOWN 2.73%
The Bull has a lot to say but his flight is about to leave so he best be going. The Bull needs to be back for a friends party at a casino tonight. I will let all the bulls know how that goes.
The Bull
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Welcome to Miami
The Bull setdown in South Beach today and had an EXTREMELY successful day in regards to business. Things could not have gone better and everything should be official by tomorrow at 10 AM ET.
Stock wise today the Bull was a minor success. Longs were up 8.63%, shorts were up(or down in reality)5.22%, London stocks were up 2.87%, Australian stocks up 1.46%, Asian stocks up .85%, futures up 3.45%, currency trading up 2.34%, options were all great and Canadian stocks DOWN 5.2% thanks in large part to RIM.CA(research in motion) but don't worry about it, earnings come next week and it will be good.
The Bull is staying at the Delano Hotel on South Beach and the Bull has had a lot of time to think just sitting out at the beach today and here are some thoughts:
1. Does money matter?
- The Bull was not always richer than God. The Bull was a 3.5 GPA highschool student who people said would never go anywhere. The Bull worked hard(much harder than people think) and came into some money and the rest is history. At first money is the coolest thing, flying first class(now private planes), driving fancy cars, staying in 5 star hotels, eating 8 course meals, ect but every 5 star hotel means less and less.
The Delano Hotel is charging me 1,250 dollars for a one bedroom ocean view room. Yes you get certain luxuries at 5 star hotels but is it worth 1,250 dollars? Of course it is not but then why pay? Because 1,250 to the Bull is like a free room to the average person. What pisses the Bull off is when they act like he is some dumbass. I know the difference between "partial ocean view" and "ocean view" so don't put me in a partial ocean view. Also I don't want the 45 dollar extra add on to have valet parking, I would rather walk 100 feet.
The pool here seems like the "Daytime Hyde" of Miami(Hyde is a nightclub in LA for all of those who don't know). Every girl is 18-24 and a model and every guy seems to either look like an athlete, model or is some rich 40 year old.
Well the Bull has had enough of this 5 star shit so I bought myself a condo down here for my one or two trips down here a year. I'll sell it for twice the value in five years if I decide to anyway.
On the way to Miami the Bull stuck in "Nip/Tuck" for his ride. The Bull's sister got him it and said the Bull reminded her of the character Christian. Christian is arrogant, unethical, womanizing, alcholoic, gambler, and sex addict. The best part is that the Bull thinks she meant it as a slap in the Bull's face,.
My first problem with Nip/Tuck is that the first scene I see is in L.A and they are claiming its in Miami. The more I watched the more I came to see the whole entire set is L.A and they pretend its Miami. I guess little things like that Piss off the Bull.
This got me thinking to the Bull's top 10 TV shows: (in some order)
1. 24
2. Entourage
3. The Shield
4. The Wire
5. Weeds
6. Prison Break
7. Lost
8. Rescue Me
9. Cat House
10. The Bull's Life Story
Top 5 shows not on anymore:
1. TILT
2. Playmakers
3. Big Shots
4. Alias
5. Soprano's
Enough of the chitchat lets get down to stock picks:
The Bull is long in TMA, WWE, RIMM, HURN, CLME, TITN, AMCS, BJGL, DEVC, HAXS, KBH, SAMBW, and my favorite play CCZ down 64% today and even after hours.
The Bull is shorting BSC and Bears everywhere
Stock wise today the Bull was a minor success. Longs were up 8.63%, shorts were up(or down in reality)5.22%, London stocks were up 2.87%, Australian stocks up 1.46%, Asian stocks up .85%, futures up 3.45%, currency trading up 2.34%, options were all great and Canadian stocks DOWN 5.2% thanks in large part to RIM.CA(research in motion) but don't worry about it, earnings come next week and it will be good.
The Bull is staying at the Delano Hotel on South Beach and the Bull has had a lot of time to think just sitting out at the beach today and here are some thoughts:
1. Does money matter?
- The Bull was not always richer than God. The Bull was a 3.5 GPA highschool student who people said would never go anywhere. The Bull worked hard(much harder than people think) and came into some money and the rest is history. At first money is the coolest thing, flying first class(now private planes), driving fancy cars, staying in 5 star hotels, eating 8 course meals, ect but every 5 star hotel means less and less.
The Delano Hotel is charging me 1,250 dollars for a one bedroom ocean view room. Yes you get certain luxuries at 5 star hotels but is it worth 1,250 dollars? Of course it is not but then why pay? Because 1,250 to the Bull is like a free room to the average person. What pisses the Bull off is when they act like he is some dumbass. I know the difference between "partial ocean view" and "ocean view" so don't put me in a partial ocean view. Also I don't want the 45 dollar extra add on to have valet parking, I would rather walk 100 feet.
The pool here seems like the "Daytime Hyde" of Miami(Hyde is a nightclub in LA for all of those who don't know). Every girl is 18-24 and a model and every guy seems to either look like an athlete, model or is some rich 40 year old.
Well the Bull has had enough of this 5 star shit so I bought myself a condo down here for my one or two trips down here a year. I'll sell it for twice the value in five years if I decide to anyway.
On the way to Miami the Bull stuck in "Nip/Tuck" for his ride. The Bull's sister got him it and said the Bull reminded her of the character Christian. Christian is arrogant, unethical, womanizing, alcholoic, gambler, and sex addict. The best part is that the Bull thinks she meant it as a slap in the Bull's face,.
My first problem with Nip/Tuck is that the first scene I see is in L.A and they are claiming its in Miami. The more I watched the more I came to see the whole entire set is L.A and they pretend its Miami. I guess little things like that Piss off the Bull.
This got me thinking to the Bull's top 10 TV shows: (in some order)
1. 24
2. Entourage
3. The Shield
4. The Wire
5. Weeds
6. Prison Break
7. Lost
8. Rescue Me
9. Cat House
10. The Bull's Life Story
Top 5 shows not on anymore:
1. TILT
2. Playmakers
3. Big Shots
4. Alias
5. Soprano's
Enough of the chitchat lets get down to stock picks:
The Bull is long in TMA, WWE, RIMM, HURN, CLME, TITN, AMCS, BJGL, DEVC, HAXS, KBH, SAMBW, and my favorite play CCZ down 64% today and even after hours.
The Bull is shorting BSC and Bears everywhere
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Bull out on Business
The Bull has to head to South Beach tomorrow morning and won't be back until Friday night where he will then again travel to a neighboring state for the regionals of an NCAA Sport.
I will try to get some picks up tomorrow from Miami however but it won't be much of a post.
The Bull
I will try to get some picks up tomorrow from Miami however but it won't be much of a post.
The Bull
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The Bull goes to LA
The Blog has been down of late due to a "large increase" in viewership. The Bull has been out on Business(more on this shortly) and was unaware of the technical malfunctions of "blogspot" until everyone's favorite poker player "Big Add" informed the Bull. I am sure many of you panicked and wondered if the Bull had decided to run to and hide. Let it be known, the Bull will not always be here but he will leave and then return in his divinity at a time thereafter.
The Bull was out in the City of Smog(otherwise known as L.A) this past week on business(looking at properties and investments) and pleasure(NCAA regional basketball games). The Bull had time to have his chauffeur drive him around most of southern California and saw all of L.A, Anaheim, Newport, Long Beach, and Laguna Beach. Here are a few observations that deal with business and these locations.
1. O.C people think they know what having money means.
- Am I the only one who thinks Beverly Hills and more specifically Rodeo Drive is more of a tourist attraction than any sort of high class living/shopping. Sure it is filled with 300 series BMW's from the aspiring musicians, and actors, but what makes this place so special. I realize they have a Versace, Armani, Chanel, Gucci, ect but so does Caesar's Palace and thats a fucking casino. One person even had the audacity to question the Bull as to whether throwing a pair of newly purchased 1,800 dollar Versace sunglasses into the trash was the "smart thing to do". Hey pal, 1,800 dollars or 18 cents, if the glasses can't stop the sun from bothering me then they are worthless. If these people had close to the money they thought they had they would never be questioning the Bull on some lousy pair of 1,800 dollar sunglasses.
- In Laguna Beach I saw five Lamborghini Reventon's driving down Laguna Avenue. It looked like a gay pride parade the way these cars were painted. The cars mixed pink,light green, yellow, light blue, ect into one big mess. It looked like these cars were taken right out of a matchbox kit. Then of course all five cars rev their V12's and take off, making sure everyone notices these pieces of shit. Clearly they were not from Laguna Beach(they have better taste in cars) but do these people think driving around 200,000 dollar cars is going to impress the Bull?
Going along with this, it seems every car in Southern Cal is either a Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, Infiniti, Range Rover, or a Ferrari, these are all nice cars but how many people want to own the 760I BWM before it becomes cliche? Driving a Beamer down there is like driving a Camry in Kansas, everyone does it. Time to upgrade. The only one impressive car I saw the entire time was a Bentley Convertible 2008.
- Visited the site of the "most expensive real estate in the world" otherwise known as Newport Beach. 3.6 million dollars for a little shack on the ocean. I am sure 99.999% of tourists are astonished when they see those prices but that hardly pays for the kitchen in the Bulls residence.
2. The "greatest financial mind in L.A".
- The Bull was listening to the radio as he cruised around Compton listening to a radio financial host who billed himself as the "greatest financial mind in L.A". Now I will agree that there is not a single intelligent person in L.A when it comes to business so being the "greatest" is hardly an accomplishment but allow me to share some of the questions and answers that were given.(These are 100% true)
A. "Where do you see the stock market going?"
- "Well Jim, I would NEVER predict where the stock market is going to go in the short term but in the long term it will go up.
B. "What do you mean by short term?"
- Well XXX, I believe that short term in the stock market is anywhere from 1 month to five years. NO ONE can predict what will happen in the short term but in 20 years I think the stock market will be higher than it is now.
C. "Where do you see Oil prices going?"
- Well, once again I would NEVER predict where oil will go short term since NO ONE knows, but obviously over time it will go up. I think gas prices will continue to rise.
D. "Where would you have your money right now for the short term"(The Bull swears this answer is real)
- Well...pause.....I think a lot of people are mad at the stock market right now. And I don't blame them. The stock market is only for the long term so I would not own stocks, instead I would have some money in a CD and "SOME IN A MUTUAL FUND".
E. "Come on now, don't you think saying that it is impossible to predict the stock market in a 5 year term basis is going to far. There are people on TV giving daily picks who seem to be experts"
- Look, ANYONE who tells you that they can predict the stock market and give daily picks is a CON-ARTIST. NO ONE knows what tomorrow will bring and no one ever will.
Sadly, the Bull only caught the last 25-30 minutes of the "greatest financial mind in LA's" show but it got the Bull to thinking. What if the Bull went on Larry King Live one night and answered questions for an hour? Surely the Bull would be laughed at but when the Bull's predictions started to become true would he become a cult hero? Yes he would but the Bull loves being anonymous. The Bull is a modest guy after all.
But wouldn't it be great if someone just said "I see oil dropping to the 103-104 range int eh next 7-8 days, I think it will then linger for about two weeks before dropping to sub 100 numbers. But after a month of going from 97-105 it will jump all the way up to 125 by mid June." or if someone said "The Stock market will finish the year at 13,865 given current conditions, if Bernanke does the correct moves we could finish up to 14,786 give or take 20 points and at worse we finish at 13,278. What if the Bull went mainstream? What if the Bull disclosed who he was? What if the Bull showed his DIVINE wisdom?
For that we will never know, but what I do know is that i have some picks for the rest of the day.
At this very minute it is 11:06 Eastern Time.
7 Picks:
1. CTZN - 9.53 - I have merger hopes of this stock.
2. IMB - 5.32 - Should receive good news about mortgage and lending today.
3. ASTI(also like ASTIZ) - 9.11 - In talks with new underwriters, stock should be up much more than it is. Maybe even 10-15% more than it is.
4. CSK - 3.98 - Just saw on CNBC a story on the stock, should see a jump due to the coverage and the news on stock. Will not last, get in and get out.
5. STP - 35.88 - Another Solar play, all solars are up 10-15% today and yet this stock is barely up. Should jump with the rest.
6. MTH - 19.52 - Another mortgage company that is going to be bailed out. Also got upgraded today but no real large spike yet.
7. COIN - 9.78
The Bull
The Bull was out in the City of Smog(otherwise known as L.A) this past week on business(looking at properties and investments) and pleasure(NCAA regional basketball games). The Bull had time to have his chauffeur drive him around most of southern California and saw all of L.A, Anaheim, Newport, Long Beach, and Laguna Beach. Here are a few observations that deal with business and these locations.
1. O.C people think they know what having money means.
- Am I the only one who thinks Beverly Hills and more specifically Rodeo Drive is more of a tourist attraction than any sort of high class living/shopping. Sure it is filled with 300 series BMW's from the aspiring musicians, and actors, but what makes this place so special. I realize they have a Versace, Armani, Chanel, Gucci, ect but so does Caesar's Palace and thats a fucking casino. One person even had the audacity to question the Bull as to whether throwing a pair of newly purchased 1,800 dollar Versace sunglasses into the trash was the "smart thing to do". Hey pal, 1,800 dollars or 18 cents, if the glasses can't stop the sun from bothering me then they are worthless. If these people had close to the money they thought they had they would never be questioning the Bull on some lousy pair of 1,800 dollar sunglasses.
- In Laguna Beach I saw five Lamborghini Reventon's driving down Laguna Avenue. It looked like a gay pride parade the way these cars were painted. The cars mixed pink,light green, yellow, light blue, ect into one big mess. It looked like these cars were taken right out of a matchbox kit. Then of course all five cars rev their V12's and take off, making sure everyone notices these pieces of shit. Clearly they were not from Laguna Beach(they have better taste in cars) but do these people think driving around 200,000 dollar cars is going to impress the Bull?
Going along with this, it seems every car in Southern Cal is either a Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, Infiniti, Range Rover, or a Ferrari, these are all nice cars but how many people want to own the 760I BWM before it becomes cliche? Driving a Beamer down there is like driving a Camry in Kansas, everyone does it. Time to upgrade. The only one impressive car I saw the entire time was a Bentley Convertible 2008.
- Visited the site of the "most expensive real estate in the world" otherwise known as Newport Beach. 3.6 million dollars for a little shack on the ocean. I am sure 99.999% of tourists are astonished when they see those prices but that hardly pays for the kitchen in the Bulls residence.
2. The "greatest financial mind in L.A".
- The Bull was listening to the radio as he cruised around Compton listening to a radio financial host who billed himself as the "greatest financial mind in L.A". Now I will agree that there is not a single intelligent person in L.A when it comes to business so being the "greatest" is hardly an accomplishment but allow me to share some of the questions and answers that were given.(These are 100% true)
A. "Where do you see the stock market going?"
- "Well Jim, I would NEVER predict where the stock market is going to go in the short term but in the long term it will go up.
B. "What do you mean by short term?"
- Well XXX, I believe that short term in the stock market is anywhere from 1 month to five years. NO ONE can predict what will happen in the short term but in 20 years I think the stock market will be higher than it is now.
C. "Where do you see Oil prices going?"
- Well, once again I would NEVER predict where oil will go short term since NO ONE knows, but obviously over time it will go up. I think gas prices will continue to rise.
D. "Where would you have your money right now for the short term"(The Bull swears this answer is real)
- Well...pause.....I think a lot of people are mad at the stock market right now. And I don't blame them. The stock market is only for the long term so I would not own stocks, instead I would have some money in a CD and "SOME IN A MUTUAL FUND".
E. "Come on now, don't you think saying that it is impossible to predict the stock market in a 5 year term basis is going to far. There are people on TV giving daily picks who seem to be experts"
- Look, ANYONE who tells you that they can predict the stock market and give daily picks is a CON-ARTIST. NO ONE knows what tomorrow will bring and no one ever will.
Sadly, the Bull only caught the last 25-30 minutes of the "greatest financial mind in LA's" show but it got the Bull to thinking. What if the Bull went on Larry King Live one night and answered questions for an hour? Surely the Bull would be laughed at but when the Bull's predictions started to become true would he become a cult hero? Yes he would but the Bull loves being anonymous. The Bull is a modest guy after all.
But wouldn't it be great if someone just said "I see oil dropping to the 103-104 range int eh next 7-8 days, I think it will then linger for about two weeks before dropping to sub 100 numbers. But after a month of going from 97-105 it will jump all the way up to 125 by mid June." or if someone said "The Stock market will finish the year at 13,865 given current conditions, if Bernanke does the correct moves we could finish up to 14,786 give or take 20 points and at worse we finish at 13,278. What if the Bull went mainstream? What if the Bull disclosed who he was? What if the Bull showed his DIVINE wisdom?
For that we will never know, but what I do know is that i have some picks for the rest of the day.
At this very minute it is 11:06 Eastern Time.
7 Picks:
1. CTZN - 9.53 - I have merger hopes of this stock.
2. IMB - 5.32 - Should receive good news about mortgage and lending today.
3. ASTI(also like ASTIZ) - 9.11 - In talks with new underwriters, stock should be up much more than it is. Maybe even 10-15% more than it is.
4. CSK - 3.98 - Just saw on CNBC a story on the stock, should see a jump due to the coverage and the news on stock. Will not last, get in and get out.
5. STP - 35.88 - Another Solar play, all solars are up 10-15% today and yet this stock is barely up. Should jump with the rest.
6. MTH - 19.52 - Another mortgage company that is going to be bailed out. Also got upgraded today but no real large spike yet.
7. COIN - 9.78
The Bull
Sunday, March 16, 2008
How the Bull would play tomorrow?
How can one expect to make money on a day the market will surely open AT LEAST 200 down?
One must realize that stocks are not the only thing that can be traded these days. There is commodity(future) trading, currency trading, ect.
I would get in many commodities early in the morning. Mainly Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, Corn, Wheat, and beans.
Secondly, curreny trading can make people huge money. While in the true sense of currency trading(as done on the FX) one has to "long" one currency and ""short" another. Imagine how one always hears how the Dollar is reaching new time lows against the EURO on a daily basis. One is shorting the dollar and longing the Euro to make money. The great thing is that these days you can trade curreny through ETF's. Most start with FX(letter) like FXM(Peso).
The Bull likes 5 currencies more than others. The Bull loves "The dong"(Vietnam), "Balboa" (Panama), Francs(Switzerland), Rand(South Africa), Reasis(Brazil). The Bull loves the Brazil and South African currenicies becuase these are emegering markets(Brazil still is) whose economies will nto slow in a world wide recession. They both have many natural resources to contribute and their technological advances are moving at rapid speed.
As for Panama, Signapore, and Switzerland. Many of the Bull's fans have heard of "offshore bank accounts". The connotation of the phrase screams "illegal", "tax fraud/tax evasion", "money laundering" ect. While these three countries certainly are targets for these illegal crimes because of a myriad of issues, their currencies hold their value as well as any in the world.
Without going into the great detail of the 1934 banking law and the influence of the Nazi's on the Swiss banking system, the basic way these countries work is that they assign each account a code name and a number. Unlike America, there is no name attached to these accounts(granted that at least in Switzerland, the top officers at the Bank know the names but many times refuse to cooperate). Signapore and Panama are having more and more foreign money invested in their banks and their econmies continue to grow. Switzerland has lost some money of late due to the American recession and a recent crackdown on illegal practices but all three of these countries will continue to gather large amounts of foreign money and will continue to grow and get stronger.
That is what the Bull would play tomorrow.
The Bull
One must realize that stocks are not the only thing that can be traded these days. There is commodity(future) trading, currency trading, ect.
I would get in many commodities early in the morning. Mainly Gold, Silver, Copper, Oil, Corn, Wheat, and beans.
Secondly, curreny trading can make people huge money. While in the true sense of currency trading(as done on the FX) one has to "long" one currency and ""short" another. Imagine how one always hears how the Dollar is reaching new time lows against the EURO on a daily basis. One is shorting the dollar and longing the Euro to make money. The great thing is that these days you can trade curreny through ETF's. Most start with FX(letter) like FXM(Peso).
The Bull likes 5 currencies more than others. The Bull loves "The dong"(Vietnam), "Balboa" (Panama), Francs(Switzerland), Rand(South Africa), Reasis(Brazil). The Bull loves the Brazil and South African currenicies becuase these are emegering markets(Brazil still is) whose economies will nto slow in a world wide recession. They both have many natural resources to contribute and their technological advances are moving at rapid speed.
As for Panama, Signapore, and Switzerland. Many of the Bull's fans have heard of "offshore bank accounts". The connotation of the phrase screams "illegal", "tax fraud/tax evasion", "money laundering" ect. While these three countries certainly are targets for these illegal crimes because of a myriad of issues, their currencies hold their value as well as any in the world.
Without going into the great detail of the 1934 banking law and the influence of the Nazi's on the Swiss banking system, the basic way these countries work is that they assign each account a code name and a number. Unlike America, there is no name attached to these accounts(granted that at least in Switzerland, the top officers at the Bank know the names but many times refuse to cooperate). Signapore and Panama are having more and more foreign money invested in their banks and their econmies continue to grow. Switzerland has lost some money of late due to the American recession and a recent crackdown on illegal practices but all three of these countries will continue to gather large amounts of foreign money and will continue to grow and get stronger.
That is what the Bull would play tomorrow.
The Bull
The Bull goes Speechless
The Bull has seen a lot of things in his day but he has never seen something like the Bear Stearns collapse.
Their CEO comes out on saturday and tells everyone that everything is ok and that even though the stock has gone from 160 to 30 in less than a year that things are not that bad. Today the Wall Street Journal reports that JP(JPM) is buying 93% of common stock for Bear Stearns for 2 dollars per share. Yes TWO DOLLARS. Curreny stock price is 30 dollars. Turns out that Bear Stearns was going to go bankrupt and this was the best deal they could have gotten to try to "salvage" their company.
The Bull is the ultimate capitlist but this is a criminal act by Bear Stearns, the Fed, JP, ect. Why not release this news during regular stock hours? Why not give the "average" investor a chance to get out instead of just allowing the institutional buyers the only "real" chance. Why not suspend trading(happens with many companies on earnings or big announcments)? Of course they spew this shit about wanting to get it out for Asian Markets opening? Since when does the Fed work for Asia? Since when do we need to help Asian investors over our own investors?
The Market is not looking good for tomorrow. The futures are already down 190 which isn't that much but I don't think they will even stay that high. This market could soon become "a bear market" in its truest sense.
I wish you all the best,
The Bull
Their CEO comes out on saturday and tells everyone that everything is ok and that even though the stock has gone from 160 to 30 in less than a year that things are not that bad. Today the Wall Street Journal reports that JP(JPM) is buying 93% of common stock for Bear Stearns for 2 dollars per share. Yes TWO DOLLARS. Curreny stock price is 30 dollars. Turns out that Bear Stearns was going to go bankrupt and this was the best deal they could have gotten to try to "salvage" their company.
The Bull is the ultimate capitlist but this is a criminal act by Bear Stearns, the Fed, JP, ect. Why not release this news during regular stock hours? Why not give the "average" investor a chance to get out instead of just allowing the institutional buyers the only "real" chance. Why not suspend trading(happens with many companies on earnings or big announcments)? Of course they spew this shit about wanting to get it out for Asian Markets opening? Since when does the Fed work for Asia? Since when do we need to help Asian investors over our own investors?
The Market is not looking good for tomorrow. The futures are already down 190 which isn't that much but I don't think they will even stay that high. This market could soon become "a bear market" in its truest sense.
I wish you all the best,
The Bull
Monday, March 10, 2008
Some plays for tomorrow
I will make this real quick:
Earning Plays: DKS, KR and maybe PSS(other two in front of this). PSS scares me with FL dropping 9% today, i would look to have options on both sides.
Penny Stocks: BI, LSAL, SINJF, BWNR, OCHT, NGEN.
3% Gainers club: CREE, JNPR, IMCLE, KELYA, CTRS, NVDM.
Will post tomorrow with a quality post and look at stock market.
Also, I stand buy TITN and ICE. I think it is still a good time to get in.
The JR Bull likes KERX on a comeback tomorrow.
The Bull
Earning Plays: DKS, KR and maybe PSS(other two in front of this). PSS scares me with FL dropping 9% today, i would look to have options on both sides.
Penny Stocks: BI, LSAL, SINJF, BWNR, OCHT, NGEN.
3% Gainers club: CREE, JNPR, IMCLE, KELYA, CTRS, NVDM.
Will post tomorrow with a quality post and look at stock market.
Also, I stand buy TITN and ICE. I think it is still a good time to get in.
The JR Bull likes KERX on a comeback tomorrow.
The Bull
Sunday, March 9, 2008
The Bull Returns.....
The Bull returns from his voyage over seas to a market that is at epic lows, a world in which the Bears are convincing even the most staunch Bulls to become bears. The Bull looks around and he hears people crying about this stock market, crying about how companies that have no business going lower are dropping to 52 week lows, crying about how the bears are making money and how the "average guy" can't compete with the Wall Street gang of thieves, crying about how they have to put their money into CD's or even some Bulls who have started to invest in mutual funds. Do people believe mutual funds are any safer than just picking stocks out of a hat? Mutual funds are pre-dominantly made up of all stocks, and almost always on the long side, isn't this what people are trying to get away from?
Well, luckily the Bull lives in his own realm. The business trip was of the utmost success. The Bull looks at this market and thinks "God DAMN, how lucky I am to see these prices". The JR Bull(Tits and Ass or TA if you will) coined it best when he said "another down day over here in America, got to love it, these prices are at lows that we will only dream about in 6 months". That is what makes Tits and Ass the Junior Bull.
The Bull has read some recent criticisms from "competing"(I use that term loosely) and other blogs that attack the Bull.
1. "The Bull names himself the Bull yet makes picks that are rather bearish"
- The Bull is a self-described "Agnostic opportunist". The connotation of the word Bull in the kingdom of money is "making money, prosperous, and optimistic". That is why I call myself the Bull. The Bull makes bearish picks? You think the Bull made it to where he is today by claiming BUY BUY BUY is the way to go? The Bull is always Bullish, but to be a Bull you must punish companies that do a poor job of being Bullish. Therefore, when the Bull says buy PUTS on TMA, he is not doing it because he wants to be a bear, but he is doing it since bulls should not pay the price for this companies illogical leadership but rather reap the rewards of it. Call that bearish, I call it being an opportunist.
2. "How his idiotic readers cant seem to figure out the Bull has them buy his stocks and then he sells them and makes a lot of money while they lose money"
- The Bulls readers are mostly small time(money wise) investors. They have no ability to make stocks or options move. Also, my picks tend to go up over time, not just a one day boost. Simply irresponsible to make this argument against the Bull.
3. "Anyone who follows the Bull is playing with fire, you might Reap some early rewards but in the end you Reap what you sow and it wont be pretty........It is always smartest to get into Indexes or mutual funds, no risk and all reward".
- Enjoy your mutual funds which are on average down double digits this year, and the Bull will enjoy his millions.
4. "The Bull just throws out random picks, he doesn't explain why or explain investing basics"
- If you want a book on how to click a mouse button to buy a stock, I would suggest the masterpiece "I am a dumbfuck" written by The Bear. I guess I do pretty well for random picks.
5. Best one - "Does anyone really think this ***** kow shwat he is doing? Surely they don't, the guy is a BEEPING(censored) idiot.
- This is from a blog solely set up to go against my picks and to keep track of them. I see they stopped keeping track of my picks after three days and don't include options in any of the tallies. They also only now have a top 5 list of my worst stock picks(worst one is down 12% for the year).
Anyway, where does the Bull want people to be investing:
1. If you are not short in TMA after my suggesting of getting some puts in it, get some puts in it for tomorrow!!!
2. JRT, ICE, TITN - All picks from JR Bull's that I like. ICE is attractive at these prices and its recent pull back. It should be in the 160's at current valuation and if the NYSE ever decides to smart up it is a potential buyout opportunity. JRT is in its usual 3 month cycle of going from 8-12 dollars. The stock tried to move up on Friday but was brought down by the Bears. If we see a day in green this stock could fly about 7-10%. TITN is looking nice on its recent pullback. Enjoy, load up, dump, and over and over.
3. Penny stocks I love are FMT off of 31% drop, should be able to rebound some of that back. ATPL with a limit sell at 28 or 29 cents, try to get it to jump to 35 cents(up 5 cents). And my favorite Penny play is THN with a limit sell close to its current price.
4. Stock for a possible 3-5% gain on just tomorrow due to trading principles and the usual response: SCON, CREE, APOL, KELYA.
5. Citigroup (C) - At 20 bucks this stock is a freaking steal. Not saying its a great one day play but it will be back to 30 in time.
6. Earnings tomorrow: Always a risky game but if I had to play some it would be EVEP(energy), DDS(Dillards) - retail has been stomping earnings so far, FL(footlocker) - same as Dillards, and if you want to get aggressive and life life look at RDEA, ROHI, and HOV.
7. Option Plays: SPPI - Up huge in after hours because their first ever FDA drug has been approved. It deals with Bone Cancer, I think this stock should double in time and therefore look at May or June CALLS. I think the May 08 5.00 dollar strike price call on it for 10 cents is generous. This does mean the stock must double to be in the money but I feel this is a great play. A safer and maybe smarter play albeit does not offer same reward is the 2.50 Call for 55 cents per share.
BBI - Had a great quarter and the stock still drops, they continue to get better and will continue to gain market share. Another low priced long term play(long term for the Bull that is) I love the APRIL 08 call at 5.00 strike price for 5 cents per share, also like the 2.50 strike price for 60 cents per share that is already in the money(stock at 2.90) after hours.
Shorting: Continue to short Home builders, financials, commerical real estate, and of course XLB.
Couple finishing points:
1. Whisper Numbers were explained by someone in the comments pretty well. They are estimates for companies earnings that "insiders" use to pass around, now people "pass them" around online and average them out. They have proved to be 100% more accurate(meaning if estimate is 1 dollar, whispers and 50 cents and the actual is 0 cents, then the whispers beat it by 100%).
2. Tits and Ass had the line of the week, when someone was talking about Goldman Sachs(GS) he said this "Goldman? I could work at Goldman if I wanted to, they don't know how to make money, all they are is a bunch of salesman, that's it, nothing else, nothing more, salesmen!". How proud the Bull is.
THE BULL
Well, luckily the Bull lives in his own realm. The business trip was of the utmost success. The Bull looks at this market and thinks "God DAMN, how lucky I am to see these prices". The JR Bull(Tits and Ass or TA if you will) coined it best when he said "another down day over here in America, got to love it, these prices are at lows that we will only dream about in 6 months". That is what makes Tits and Ass the Junior Bull.
The Bull has read some recent criticisms from "competing"(I use that term loosely) and other blogs that attack the Bull.
1. "The Bull names himself the Bull yet makes picks that are rather bearish"
- The Bull is a self-described "Agnostic opportunist". The connotation of the word Bull in the kingdom of money is "making money, prosperous, and optimistic". That is why I call myself the Bull. The Bull makes bearish picks? You think the Bull made it to where he is today by claiming BUY BUY BUY is the way to go? The Bull is always Bullish, but to be a Bull you must punish companies that do a poor job of being Bullish. Therefore, when the Bull says buy PUTS on TMA, he is not doing it because he wants to be a bear, but he is doing it since bulls should not pay the price for this companies illogical leadership but rather reap the rewards of it. Call that bearish, I call it being an opportunist.
2. "How his idiotic readers cant seem to figure out the Bull has them buy his stocks and then he sells them and makes a lot of money while they lose money"
- The Bulls readers are mostly small time(money wise) investors. They have no ability to make stocks or options move. Also, my picks tend to go up over time, not just a one day boost. Simply irresponsible to make this argument against the Bull.
3. "Anyone who follows the Bull is playing with fire, you might Reap some early rewards but in the end you Reap what you sow and it wont be pretty........It is always smartest to get into Indexes or mutual funds, no risk and all reward".
- Enjoy your mutual funds which are on average down double digits this year, and the Bull will enjoy his millions.
4. "The Bull just throws out random picks, he doesn't explain why or explain investing basics"
- If you want a book on how to click a mouse button to buy a stock, I would suggest the masterpiece "I am a dumbfuck" written by The Bear. I guess I do pretty well for random picks.
5. Best one - "Does anyone really think this ***** kow shwat he is doing? Surely they don't, the guy is a BEEPING(censored) idiot.
- This is from a blog solely set up to go against my picks and to keep track of them. I see they stopped keeping track of my picks after three days and don't include options in any of the tallies. They also only now have a top 5 list of my worst stock picks(worst one is down 12% for the year).
Anyway, where does the Bull want people to be investing:
1. If you are not short in TMA after my suggesting of getting some puts in it, get some puts in it for tomorrow!!!
2. JRT, ICE, TITN - All picks from JR Bull's that I like. ICE is attractive at these prices and its recent pull back. It should be in the 160's at current valuation and if the NYSE ever decides to smart up it is a potential buyout opportunity. JRT is in its usual 3 month cycle of going from 8-12 dollars. The stock tried to move up on Friday but was brought down by the Bears. If we see a day in green this stock could fly about 7-10%. TITN is looking nice on its recent pullback. Enjoy, load up, dump, and over and over.
3. Penny stocks I love are FMT off of 31% drop, should be able to rebound some of that back. ATPL with a limit sell at 28 or 29 cents, try to get it to jump to 35 cents(up 5 cents). And my favorite Penny play is THN with a limit sell close to its current price.
4. Stock for a possible 3-5% gain on just tomorrow due to trading principles and the usual response: SCON, CREE, APOL, KELYA.
5. Citigroup (C) - At 20 bucks this stock is a freaking steal. Not saying its a great one day play but it will be back to 30 in time.
6. Earnings tomorrow: Always a risky game but if I had to play some it would be EVEP(energy), DDS(Dillards) - retail has been stomping earnings so far, FL(footlocker) - same as Dillards, and if you want to get aggressive and life life look at RDEA, ROHI, and HOV.
7. Option Plays: SPPI - Up huge in after hours because their first ever FDA drug has been approved. It deals with Bone Cancer, I think this stock should double in time and therefore look at May or June CALLS. I think the May 08 5.00 dollar strike price call on it for 10 cents is generous. This does mean the stock must double to be in the money but I feel this is a great play. A safer and maybe smarter play albeit does not offer same reward is the 2.50 Call for 55 cents per share.
BBI - Had a great quarter and the stock still drops, they continue to get better and will continue to gain market share. Another low priced long term play(long term for the Bull that is) I love the APRIL 08 call at 5.00 strike price for 5 cents per share, also like the 2.50 strike price for 60 cents per share that is already in the money(stock at 2.90) after hours.
Shorting: Continue to short Home builders, financials, commerical real estate, and of course XLB.
Couple finishing points:
1. Whisper Numbers were explained by someone in the comments pretty well. They are estimates for companies earnings that "insiders" use to pass around, now people "pass them" around online and average them out. They have proved to be 100% more accurate(meaning if estimate is 1 dollar, whispers and 50 cents and the actual is 0 cents, then the whispers beat it by 100%).
2. Tits and Ass had the line of the week, when someone was talking about Goldman Sachs(GS) he said this "Goldman? I could work at Goldman if I wanted to, they don't know how to make money, all they are is a bunch of salesman, that's it, nothing else, nothing more, salesmen!". How proud the Bull is.
THE BULL
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