Bulls,
Today was yet another magical day for the Bull. He held on only 8 American stocks to begin the day and only made 2 sells and 2 buys throughout the day. Here is what the day looked like.
The Bull held starting the day.
1. MA - Long time position of the Bull, feels it is the best of the breed and the best house on a good street you might say.
2. ARIA - As you all know, Bull likes this company and their cancer research.
3. C - As you all know again, Bull has many call options on it. Stock has been hit late for a myriad of reasons and the Bull feels a run back up is in order.
4. AMR - Bull's airline for merger talks.
5. GOLF - Look at yesterdays blog
6. JRCC - Look at yesterdays blog.
7. TITN - Loyal readers will know the Bull and all his comrades are high on this gem.
8. ESLR - Should have written about this one. It was clear ESLR or SOLF were going to get the huge contract as reported all over the web. The easy play was to long and short both with sells and covers of 2% move on both. ESLR got the contract.
The Bull then sold GOLF at 2.03 today after receiving word from the Junior Bull that DKS being 18.9% down was a buy. The Bull got lucky and waited until he saw some movement up and got in right as the stock crossed being 20% down. Came back to make the Bull some quick money.
The Junior Bull again struck when he informed the Bull that RCH was 15% down and poised for a short run back up. The BUll dug into his inventory(remember no great trader ever has all his money on the table) and bought RCH and got another quick 5% gain.
These two moves by the Junior BUll show that sometimes a great trader has to throw out the valuations and numbers of a stock and trade on the principles of being "over bought" and "oversold". Many times stocks that have terrible premarket news drop huge at the open but then come back. While they don't seem to come back because to many 26% down is the same as 31% down don't be fooled. There is great money to be made by doing nothing more than limiting the downside and having unlimited upside.
The Bull would love to write more but he has an early morning full of business.
God Bless,
The Bull
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
A lesson the Bull learned
Even the Bull learns a lesson every now and then. The great theoriests of investing have always proclaimed that it is best to go against public setiment and rather go by the fundamentals and while there is no doubt that this strategy is the only intelligent and profitable one in the long term, it is of the utmost importance to realize that there is a large sum of money to be made by following public sentiment in the short term. What does the Bull mean?
JRCC - James River Coal Company is the number one stock on the major indexes this year. Coal is a hot commodity and almost all coal stocks are up large(60%+) but James River coal is up hundereds of percent. Why? Well the company seemed destined for bankruptcuy this summer and no one was doing business with them. Since no one was doing business with them much of their coal was not under contract. Now that coal is sky rocketing and coal is in need, JRCC is able to sell their coal for new contracts(since they had the most not under contract of any coal company) and there stock has sky rocketing every single time they point this fact out. Is JRCC to high? Of course it is, this company is hardly profitable and has huge debt. At best they are a 20 dollar stock but more likely about a 16 dollar stock. The Bull shorted the stock a couple weeks ago on earnings day and JRCC reported a huge loss and the Bull made a quick 8% but then the stock came back and actually finished up on the day and it has not looked back. Finally the Bull had enough and bought in at 31 dollars. Today the stock is trading above 36 dollars.
Investors like to invest in stocks they see having the potential to sky rocket up in the short term and JRCC seems to fit the bill. Who cares about the massive debt, continous loss of money on a yearly basis, that the stock went from 50 dollarsto 3.50. This is just like the tech boom, stocks being sold at values that make no sense but there were great amounts of money to be made in the tech boom and there is in JRCC and other stocks that people seem to see as invicible.
Where is oil going to stop?
Gas is approaching four dollars in most parts of the United States and the always bullish oil analysts at Goldman are calling for 141 oil by the end of the year. Thestreet.com has their first article as "Stocks for 200 dollar oil" and on CNBC people are claiming 160-180 oil is in the near future. These people are crazy, oil is up 100% in the last 12 months. This is not going to crash and go back down to 60 dollars a barrel but oil will see 100 before it sees 160. Oil is overpriced and more importantly there is now way that the United States government will allow OPEC to raise oil prices that high by cutting supply. Oil someday in our lives will be at 200then 300 dollars but not this year, not the next, not in 5 years.
To the commentor who said that "Fast money is bashing yahoo, options are not looking good for it".
- Would you take Ichan and Paulson or Macke and some other cronie on that show? Just yesterday CNBC had an article stating "option activity points to yahoo buyout". What a joke.
The bull's favorite golf store Golf Smith is down 26% today. This is a highly volatile stock. Could be a nice 5% kickback here. I would put a 2% sell on it as well.
Bull played his first round yesterday. Shot a 77 with hitting 12 greens but the wedges were not dialed in, the putts were not falling, only hit 6 fairways. Was playing a team match play best ball. The opposing team only fired an 88 and a 90 so my 77 would seem good considering my partner said "I usually shoot low to mid 80's" and then put up a 109!!! I could shoot a 109 with a PW the entire time.
The Bull
JRCC - James River Coal Company is the number one stock on the major indexes this year. Coal is a hot commodity and almost all coal stocks are up large(60%+) but James River coal is up hundereds of percent. Why? Well the company seemed destined for bankruptcuy this summer and no one was doing business with them. Since no one was doing business with them much of their coal was not under contract. Now that coal is sky rocketing and coal is in need, JRCC is able to sell their coal for new contracts(since they had the most not under contract of any coal company) and there stock has sky rocketing every single time they point this fact out. Is JRCC to high? Of course it is, this company is hardly profitable and has huge debt. At best they are a 20 dollar stock but more likely about a 16 dollar stock. The Bull shorted the stock a couple weeks ago on earnings day and JRCC reported a huge loss and the Bull made a quick 8% but then the stock came back and actually finished up on the day and it has not looked back. Finally the Bull had enough and bought in at 31 dollars. Today the stock is trading above 36 dollars.
Investors like to invest in stocks they see having the potential to sky rocket up in the short term and JRCC seems to fit the bill. Who cares about the massive debt, continous loss of money on a yearly basis, that the stock went from 50 dollarsto 3.50. This is just like the tech boom, stocks being sold at values that make no sense but there were great amounts of money to be made in the tech boom and there is in JRCC and other stocks that people seem to see as invicible.
Where is oil going to stop?
Gas is approaching four dollars in most parts of the United States and the always bullish oil analysts at Goldman are calling for 141 oil by the end of the year. Thestreet.com has their first article as "Stocks for 200 dollar oil" and on CNBC people are claiming 160-180 oil is in the near future. These people are crazy, oil is up 100% in the last 12 months. This is not going to crash and go back down to 60 dollars a barrel but oil will see 100 before it sees 160. Oil is overpriced and more importantly there is now way that the United States government will allow OPEC to raise oil prices that high by cutting supply. Oil someday in our lives will be at 200then 300 dollars but not this year, not the next, not in 5 years.
To the commentor who said that "Fast money is bashing yahoo, options are not looking good for it".
- Would you take Ichan and Paulson or Macke and some other cronie on that show? Just yesterday CNBC had an article stating "option activity points to yahoo buyout". What a joke.
The bull's favorite golf store Golf Smith is down 26% today. This is a highly volatile stock. Could be a nice 5% kickback here. I would put a 2% sell on it as well.
Bull played his first round yesterday. Shot a 77 with hitting 12 greens but the wedges were not dialed in, the putts were not falling, only hit 6 fairways. Was playing a team match play best ball. The opposing team only fired an 88 and a 90 so my 77 would seem good considering my partner said "I usually shoot low to mid 80's" and then put up a 109!!! I could shoot a 109 with a PW the entire time.
The Bull
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Three Major Items
Bulls,
Three huge items the Bull must talk about.
1. Yahoo
- As many of the Bull's loyal readers know the Bull is not a fan of Yahoo in any sort of way so the Bull's following comment might be a shocker. The Bull thinks Yahoo is a buy! Now Yahoo is not going to have another 72% jump like it did after MSFT announced plans to buy but if yahoo can secure a 33 dollar sell price then you will see an impressive 18-19% jump in the stock.
Why is the Bull so bullish all of sudden. The Bull believes in following the "whales" and outside of Buffet, Ichan may be the biggest in the game. Now what Ichan specializes in is hostile takeovers and proxy fights. Exactly what he is getting involved with here.
This yahoo board has been in place in four years. During that time the nasdaq is up 30% and Google 440% but yahoo has been flat. This is unacceptable and Ichan has put his own slate of board members up for election. The meeting is July 3rd and the Bull might be in attendence just to see the fireworks.
Within Ichan's ten prospective candidates for the board are some interesting names. Marc Cuban who sold broadcast.com for 5 billion dollars to yahoo, and therefore knows how this yahoo board likes to negotiate. Adam Dell, the brother of Michael Dell, and Lucian Bebchuck who is one of the most respected figures in the academic world in terms of mergers.
But there is one other key ingredient besides Ichan and his 59 million shares and 10 million call options. John Paulson who runs the hedge fund Paulson and Company, made billions this past year by betting against the market due to predicting the subprime mess. He made 3.7 billion dollars personally and was the top earner of any hedge fund mangers(BRK is not a hedge fund and therefore Buffet does not count). Well turns out according to SEC reports that Mr. Paulson himself has acquired a 3.7% stake in yahoo by owning around 50 million shares and he too is demanding change.
Who would not want to go into the trenches with these two giants?
2. 5,000 Cancer Drug Reports Released tonight at 9 PM ET time.
- The American Society of Clinical Oncology every year releases their findings on different cancer drugs. They hold a conference towards the end of May each year where the discuss the blockbuster names of the bio-tech world and their findings. In years past, the ASCO would release their findings to around 25,000 doctors and reporters a few weeks before the conference and then the hawks on Wallstreet would begin paying these doctors substantial amounts of money in exchange for the ASCO results before they were officially released.
As a result, this year the ASCO is releasing almost 5,000 detailed reports on different cancer drugs all at the same time to anyone who has a computer. Log onto asco.org at 9 a clock eastern and the reports will be there for all to see. Now there are a few blockbuster names that they are keeping in store until the conference but the results tonight will shake the Biotech world for the rest of the month.
All the big names such as DNA, PFE, LLY, CELG, ONXX and OSIP will be affected. Personally I am watching for some movement in ARIA and and BMY.
It is hard to predict what will happen and people will be up all night trying to figure out how these findings should affect the stocks. I think the safest bet is to long straddle the volatile cancer related bio-tech stocks.
If you see any huge announcements(IMCL last year) plastered on CNBC, I would do my best to get in pre-market or as early as you can. Also look for a huge drop and maybe try to catch a big comeback play.
3. The Intelligent Investor
- Easily the greatest book ever written on the principles of investing. If you have not read this book, rush down to your nearest barnes and noble and pick it up. I recommend the newer version with commentary from Jason Zweig. I will comment on the book as a whole another day but the book is written by the famed financial mind Benjamin Graham who was the mentor to a young Warren Buffet.
This book will change your life and the way you approach the market.
The Bull is off to play a round of golf.
The Bull
Three huge items the Bull must talk about.
1. Yahoo
- As many of the Bull's loyal readers know the Bull is not a fan of Yahoo in any sort of way so the Bull's following comment might be a shocker. The Bull thinks Yahoo is a buy! Now Yahoo is not going to have another 72% jump like it did after MSFT announced plans to buy but if yahoo can secure a 33 dollar sell price then you will see an impressive 18-19% jump in the stock.
Why is the Bull so bullish all of sudden. The Bull believes in following the "whales" and outside of Buffet, Ichan may be the biggest in the game. Now what Ichan specializes in is hostile takeovers and proxy fights. Exactly what he is getting involved with here.
This yahoo board has been in place in four years. During that time the nasdaq is up 30% and Google 440% but yahoo has been flat. This is unacceptable and Ichan has put his own slate of board members up for election. The meeting is July 3rd and the Bull might be in attendence just to see the fireworks.
Within Ichan's ten prospective candidates for the board are some interesting names. Marc Cuban who sold broadcast.com for 5 billion dollars to yahoo, and therefore knows how this yahoo board likes to negotiate. Adam Dell, the brother of Michael Dell, and Lucian Bebchuck who is one of the most respected figures in the academic world in terms of mergers.
But there is one other key ingredient besides Ichan and his 59 million shares and 10 million call options. John Paulson who runs the hedge fund Paulson and Company, made billions this past year by betting against the market due to predicting the subprime mess. He made 3.7 billion dollars personally and was the top earner of any hedge fund mangers(BRK is not a hedge fund and therefore Buffet does not count). Well turns out according to SEC reports that Mr. Paulson himself has acquired a 3.7% stake in yahoo by owning around 50 million shares and he too is demanding change.
Who would not want to go into the trenches with these two giants?
2. 5,000 Cancer Drug Reports Released tonight at 9 PM ET time.
- The American Society of Clinical Oncology every year releases their findings on different cancer drugs. They hold a conference towards the end of May each year where the discuss the blockbuster names of the bio-tech world and their findings. In years past, the ASCO would release their findings to around 25,000 doctors and reporters a few weeks before the conference and then the hawks on Wallstreet would begin paying these doctors substantial amounts of money in exchange for the ASCO results before they were officially released.
As a result, this year the ASCO is releasing almost 5,000 detailed reports on different cancer drugs all at the same time to anyone who has a computer. Log onto asco.org at 9 a clock eastern and the reports will be there for all to see. Now there are a few blockbuster names that they are keeping in store until the conference but the results tonight will shake the Biotech world for the rest of the month.
All the big names such as DNA, PFE, LLY, CELG, ONXX and OSIP will be affected. Personally I am watching for some movement in ARIA and and BMY.
It is hard to predict what will happen and people will be up all night trying to figure out how these findings should affect the stocks. I think the safest bet is to long straddle the volatile cancer related bio-tech stocks.
If you see any huge announcements(IMCL last year) plastered on CNBC, I would do my best to get in pre-market or as early as you can. Also look for a huge drop and maybe try to catch a big comeback play.
3. The Intelligent Investor
- Easily the greatest book ever written on the principles of investing. If you have not read this book, rush down to your nearest barnes and noble and pick it up. I recommend the newer version with commentary from Jason Zweig. I will comment on the book as a whole another day but the book is written by the famed financial mind Benjamin Graham who was the mentor to a young Warren Buffet.
This book will change your life and the way you approach the market.
The Bull is off to play a round of golf.
The Bull
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The BULL is Alive and Well
Bulls,
I deeply apologize for my lack of posting for this month of may. I will make it up to all of you in the next two weeks I promise.
Sadly as I type right now I am on a plane heading south and write this from the runway on the blackberry.
Someone asked a great question in the comments. How do you pick a stock to buy and what do you look for?
This is a great question and an adequate answer would take more time than I have.
How the Bull usually finds stocks is he first looks for a sector he wants to invest in and then I do my homework on each company and pick the best company or maybe more than one if I am really bullish on the sector. So for instance if railroads I would look at all the rail stocks and end up with BNI and CSX and would then use this loose formula.
Tomorrow I will share the Bull's basic strategy and use a company of the readers choice for example.
Also, the Bull's life story is a long one but he will share his humble beginnings sometime this week.
The Bull is back and the Bull is ready to run.
I deeply apologize for my lack of posting for this month of may. I will make it up to all of you in the next two weeks I promise.
Sadly as I type right now I am on a plane heading south and write this from the runway on the blackberry.
Someone asked a great question in the comments. How do you pick a stock to buy and what do you look for?
This is a great question and an adequate answer would take more time than I have.
How the Bull usually finds stocks is he first looks for a sector he wants to invest in and then I do my homework on each company and pick the best company or maybe more than one if I am really bullish on the sector. So for instance if railroads I would look at all the rail stocks and end up with BNI and CSX and would then use this loose formula.
Tomorrow I will share the Bull's basic strategy and use a company of the readers choice for example.
Also, the Bull's life story is a long one but he will share his humble beginnings sometime this week.
The Bull is back and the Bull is ready to run.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Quite a day for the Junior Bull
Greetings,
The JR Bull had one of his finest days and has moved to where no one thought he could go.
The JR BULL is covering both his shorts(buying shares and giving back to net profit) so here are results of today.
1. JDSU = 175 shares x 2.40 dollars = 420 dollars.
2. RTWW = 4,500 shares x 1.76 = 7,920 dollars.
Profit of = 8340.
Transaction costs: 8 dollars.
Net Profit = 8,332 dollars.
Net Worth outside of profit today = 11,391.95 dollars.
Total Net Worth current: 19,731.95 dollars.
The JR BULL has been a very busy man this week but made time for these four picks for the portfolio.
1. POT - 183.15 dollars for 25 shares.
2. MON - 113.50 for 40 shares.
3. MOS - 122.17 for 37 shares
4. AGU - 78.20 for 58 shares.
The Bull himself will be in Omaha for the Woodstock of capitalism. Watch AXP tomorrow.
The BULL
The JR Bull had one of his finest days and has moved to where no one thought he could go.
The JR BULL is covering both his shorts(buying shares and giving back to net profit) so here are results of today.
1. JDSU = 175 shares x 2.40 dollars = 420 dollars.
2. RTWW = 4,500 shares x 1.76 = 7,920 dollars.
Profit of = 8340.
Transaction costs: 8 dollars.
Net Profit = 8,332 dollars.
Net Worth outside of profit today = 11,391.95 dollars.
Total Net Worth current: 19,731.95 dollars.
The JR BULL has been a very busy man this week but made time for these four picks for the portfolio.
1. POT - 183.15 dollars for 25 shares.
2. MON - 113.50 for 40 shares.
3. MOS - 122.17 for 37 shares
4. AGU - 78.20 for 58 shares.
The Bull himself will be in Omaha for the Woodstock of capitalism. Watch AXP tomorrow.
The BULL
Two Big Moves by Junior Bull
Bulls,
The Junior Bull's portfolio did not perform up to his usual standards but luckily his option did gain 42.5% so it made up for the other pathetic performances.
The Junior Bull has 11,951.95 dollars but the cost of the transactions are 20 dollars to sell so he is then worth 11,931.95 dollars.
Today he has two plays. BOTH SHORTS
1. RTWW - This stock jumped up huge yesterday and there is NO SHOT this stock stays up to par and lasts at 2 dollars or jumps higher. The JR BULL is going short 4,500 shares(9,000 dollars), and a cover price of 2.20 if all hell breaks loose.
2. JDSU - 14.31 per shares, the Bull thinks they blow it today so lets short it for 175 shares.
Costs of transactions 8 dollars.
Cash: 412.5 dollars
The Junior Bull's portfolio did not perform up to his usual standards but luckily his option did gain 42.5% so it made up for the other pathetic performances.
The Junior Bull has 11,951.95 dollars but the cost of the transactions are 20 dollars to sell so he is then worth 11,931.95 dollars.
Today he has two plays. BOTH SHORTS
1. RTWW - This stock jumped up huge yesterday and there is NO SHOT this stock stays up to par and lasts at 2 dollars or jumps higher. The JR BULL is going short 4,500 shares(9,000 dollars), and a cover price of 2.20 if all hell breaks loose.
2. JDSU - 14.31 per shares, the Bull thinks they blow it today so lets short it for 175 shares.
Costs of transactions 8 dollars.
Cash: 412.5 dollars
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