It is said that no matter how great a man is, he is nothing without a legacy. Hence, that is why the Bull has been training his apprentice for many years now. The Bull will not always be here, but the legacy of the Bull will live on forever!
Here is an email my apprentice sent out earlier this week:
The year has started like I hoped. Up X,XXX,XXX on picks, XXX and XXXXX left the market XXXX is god knows where on his mission to get in the market, and The Bull... lets not even go there ha. There is really no subject to this email, just felt like sending something out. The one bright spot of this year is that the picks I sent to everyone, have returned about 15 percent so far.
I think for the rest of this email I am going to outline some things that may help make some money, and maybe provide some picks that will continue to prosper through 2008.
1. Ride AG till the end
Ag is the best sector of the market so far this year, and will continue to do so the rest of 08. Many of you know the main companies; MON MOS POT DE. These companies will return at least 20% this year if not more. How do I know this? Well with the prices of wheat, corn, and soybeans being where they are today, farmers have more money to spend buying new tractors, fertilizer, and pesticides. As long as these prices continue to stay high, I believe Ag is the place to be. TITN is a company I have loved since its IPO at 8.50. It now sits at around 20.00 a share, and I see it going to forty before the end of the year. They have a great balance sheet, strong name recognition in the farming industry, and they keep buying small mom and pop dealers around the midwest, making this company one of the largest of its kind. If this stock drops to seventeen or below, get in. Another agricultural stock I like, but don't own (at least not yet) is BG. Bunge is one of the world's biggest soybean processors, but it's also ideally positioned to benefit from soaring demand for grain. Bunge makes fertilizer, seeds, grains, animal feed, biofuels and consumer products, which pretty much covers every stage of the plant life cycle. Some other stocks to keep in mind are CPO and TNH. TNH is a great company Dennis Slothower states, "The company is one of the largest North American producers of anhydrous ammonia, ammonium nitrate and nitrogen solutions, and is the largest producer of ammonia and ammonium nitrate in the United Kingdom."I like this stock for several reasons. It pays a very handsome dividend of 7%, but this is also a growth company that is undervalued with a P/E ratio of 12 times earnings but a sales growth rate of 45%. "The intrinsic value of this stock is $235 a share. This has the potential of doubling or even tripling your investment over the next three to five years while paying an excellent dividend." By looking at TNH, I two believe there is an excellent opportunity, with little downside.
2. Financials may be down, but are definitely not out
2007 was one of the worst years for financial stocks in a long time. This was mainly due to the subprime mess, and because of the massive write downs that almost every large bank had. The reason this all happened, was because of the ridiculous lending practices that some of these financial companies were involved in. Flexible rate mortgages pay a variable interest rate over a specific period of time, say thirty years. The advantage of this is that by having a flexible rate mortgage you SHOULD be able to keep your payments low. What happened with many of these is that there interest rates skyrocketed, and many were unable to pay, leading to these massive write offs. Also there are mortgages that you only have to pay interest on, and pay nothing on the money borrowed, or what we in the banking industry like to call the principal. So many people were like WOW THIS IS AWESOME, WE MAKE 10,000 dollars a year, and can buy a 400,000 dollar house because I can afford these payments. Well yes they may be able to make there payments, but in order to pay off the loan, they must pay MORE than what is asked, in order to reduce the principal. Most dont realize this until later, and come crying back to the bank saying that they are filing bankruptcy so what happens? The bank is forced to write off the loan. The main point of this is that yes financials struggled in 2007, and maybe for awhile here in 2008, but I see a buying opportunity here folks. So what I propose is do your homework, and get into at least one financial stock, it may not pay off immediately, but it will come back and then you will be sitting on some mad money. Some of my favorites include; C WB GS WFC ETFC AXP STI. My personal favorite is CSE. Look into these, wait for a pullback, and buy some.
3. AAPL will double by 2009
There is nothing much i have to say about this, but I would buy some aapl here soon, it will come back hard, and double by 2009
4. My picks for the rest of the year
TITN, ICE, MELI, CSE, MOS, DWSN, VRUS,JRCC, SFES, BWLD, WLL, SUF, HXM and I will add more later
There is always a bull market out there,
TITS AND ASS (Bull in training)
My thoughts on the Junior Bull:
1. He had a great call on AG, the next day the entire sector seemed to be up 9%(Monday). THN led the way being up 12%, MOS was also up over 10%. I love AG, and the Junior Bull knows better than anyone the AG sector.
2. You can tell the apprentice has about as much heart and feelings as I do with his rant on people that make 10 grand buying 400k houses. He is truly a special apprentice. Hard to find people who won't be afraid of speaking the truth.
3. The Junior Bull is very high on financials while I am wait and see. He had a great call on WFC(up 40% at one point this year) so he knows what he is talking about. He has also worked in the field of finance for many years now.
4. Apple seems to already be making this great comeback the JR. Bull talks about.
5. His stock picks for 2008 are up 17.28% ending today. That is without trading any of them. Find someone doing better.
The Bull(not in Houston)
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Sunday, February 24, 2008
DNA and More Health Care picks
DNA(Genentech) came through for us all on late Friday when the FDA decided to stop blocking every drug they could and approved the breast cancer drug Avastin. Experts were putting it from 30-35% chance but the FDA came through and the stock is up nine percent after hours.
Biotech/health care/Pharma is a live by the sword, die by the sword world but if you wish to live in it here, here are a couple big dates I see in the near future. (All dates are tentative).
Feb 28th - Theravance(THRX) - FDA gives decision on drug for MRSA
March 5th - Pfizer(PFE) - Having a huge conference for their investors and industry peers. Vital information regarding the trials of many drugs in their pipeline and takeover possibilities will be on the plateau.
March 13th - Amgen(AMGN) - An FDA panel takes up possibly recommending new restrictions on the use of their embattled anemia drugs for cancer patients dealing with the side effects of chemo.
March 14th - Genentech (DNA) - Meets with Wallstreet and much news expected.
End of March - Merck(MRK) and Schering-Plough(SGP) - At the American College of Cardiology conference in Chicago these two companies will defend and give information on the drug Vytorin which is a highly debated cholesterol drug.
Of course in this world, there is news everyday. I'll try to keep you posted. Also check out the best Pharma blog on the web(in the Bull's opinion) at:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837548/cid/97438
The Bull
Biotech/health care/Pharma is a live by the sword, die by the sword world but if you wish to live in it here, here are a couple big dates I see in the near future. (All dates are tentative).
Feb 28th - Theravance(THRX) - FDA gives decision on drug for MRSA
March 5th - Pfizer(PFE) - Having a huge conference for their investors and industry peers. Vital information regarding the trials of many drugs in their pipeline and takeover possibilities will be on the plateau.
March 13th - Amgen(AMGN) - An FDA panel takes up possibly recommending new restrictions on the use of their embattled anemia drugs for cancer patients dealing with the side effects of chemo.
March 14th - Genentech (DNA) - Meets with Wallstreet and much news expected.
End of March - Merck(MRK) and Schering-Plough(SGP) - At the American College of Cardiology conference in Chicago these two companies will defend and give information on the drug Vytorin which is a highly debated cholesterol drug.
Of course in this world, there is news everyday. I'll try to keep you posted. Also check out the best Pharma blog on the web(in the Bull's opinion) at:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15837548/cid/97438
The Bull
Friday, February 22, 2008
GET IN ABK
The Bull thinks this stock is vastly under valued at 8.20. Also MBI is way to low as well. The sources tell the Bull they are about to skyrocket next week.
more detailed update of yesterday
SELL:
HTZ - 3,500 shares x 13.07 = 45,745
NVDA - 2,300 shares x 21.29 = 48,967
STEI - 8,000 shares x 6.37 = 50,960
PGLA - 100,000 shares x 1.58 = 158,000
SSRX(Marh 08 put option at 10) - 450,000 shares x 1.70 = 765,000
Money back: 1,068,672 dollars
Hold:
GSK - 1,200 shares x 44.50 = 53,400
BWLD Option = 600 dollars
BUY:
DNA - 4,000 shares x 71.75 = 287,000 dollars
Note Stop Loss at 69 dollars.
RONC - 135,000 shares x 1.51 = 203,850 dollars.
Note: Stop loss at 1.38
LAD - 10.03 x 20,000 shares = 200,600 dollars
Note: Stop loss at nine.
PPCO - 3.01 x 100,000 shares = 301,000 dollars
Note: stop loss at 2.85
Cost of transactions (buy and sell): 24 dollars.
Money spend on stocks: 992,450 dollars.
Bank: 77,683.27 dollars
Net Worth: 1,124,313.27 dollars. Up an amazing 22,386.27%.
Yours in Money,
The Raging Bull
HTZ - 3,500 shares x 13.07 = 45,745
NVDA - 2,300 shares x 21.29 = 48,967
STEI - 8,000 shares x 6.37 = 50,960
PGLA - 100,000 shares x 1.58 = 158,000
SSRX(Marh 08 put option at 10) - 450,000 shares x 1.70 = 765,000
Money back: 1,068,672 dollars
Hold:
GSK - 1,200 shares x 44.50 = 53,400
BWLD Option = 600 dollars
BUY:
DNA - 4,000 shares x 71.75 = 287,000 dollars
Note Stop Loss at 69 dollars.
RONC - 135,000 shares x 1.51 = 203,850 dollars.
Note: Stop loss at 1.38
LAD - 10.03 x 20,000 shares = 200,600 dollars
Note: Stop loss at nine.
PPCO - 3.01 x 100,000 shares = 301,000 dollars
Note: stop loss at 2.85
Cost of transactions (buy and sell): 24 dollars.
Money spend on stocks: 992,450 dollars.
Bank: 77,683.27 dollars
Net Worth: 1,124,313.27 dollars. Up an amazing 22,386.27%.
Yours in Money,
The Raging Bull
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Daily Picks
It is late and this will be the short.
SELL:
HTZ - 3,500 shares x 13.07 = 45,745
NVDA - 2,300 shares x 21.29 = 48,967
STEI - 8,000 shares x 6.37 = 50,960
PGLA - 100,000 shares x 1.58 = 158,000
SSRX(Marh 08 put option at 10) - 450,000 shares x 1.70 = 765,000
Money back: 1,068,672 dollars
Hold:
GSK - 1,200 shares x 44.50 = 53,400
BUY:
DNA - 4,000 shares x 71.75 = 287,000 dollars
Note Stop Loss at 69 dollars.
RONC - 135,000 shares x 1.51 = 203,850 dollars.
Note: Stop loss at 1.38
LAD - 10.03 x 20,000 shares = 200,600 dollars
Note: Stop loss at nine.
PPCO - 3.01 x 100,000 shares = 301,000 dollars
Note: stop loss at 2.85
I promise a more thorough update tomorrow.
God Bless,
The Bull
SELL:
HTZ - 3,500 shares x 13.07 = 45,745
NVDA - 2,300 shares x 21.29 = 48,967
STEI - 8,000 shares x 6.37 = 50,960
PGLA - 100,000 shares x 1.58 = 158,000
SSRX(Marh 08 put option at 10) - 450,000 shares x 1.70 = 765,000
Money back: 1,068,672 dollars
Hold:
GSK - 1,200 shares x 44.50 = 53,400
BUY:
DNA - 4,000 shares x 71.75 = 287,000 dollars
Note Stop Loss at 69 dollars.
RONC - 135,000 shares x 1.51 = 203,850 dollars.
Note: Stop loss at 1.38
LAD - 10.03 x 20,000 shares = 200,600 dollars
Note: Stop loss at nine.
PPCO - 3.01 x 100,000 shares = 301,000 dollars
Note: stop loss at 2.85
I promise a more thorough update tomorrow.
God Bless,
The Bull
Why do I do this?
Let me begin by saying I hope to be able to get more picks to all of you tonight. I am extremely busy with some clients so it could be hard to do tonight. If I do not post again, please look at DNA for tomorrow, put a limit sell/stop loss at 70 dollars and see what happens tomorrow.
Now to the meaning of this post. Why do I blog? Why do I take my time? Why does a man who is clearly making a living off the market decide to waste time talking and helping other people. Well, the Bull has asked himself those very questions today and I hope to be able to answer them right now.
1. EGO - No thats not the main reason but I decided to get it out of the way. Imagine knowing you are the worlds greatest golfer, then imagine yourself on a golf course with a million other people, wouldn't you want them to see the talent you have? The stock market is like that. I can make all the money I can ever dream of but who really knows about that. When the lady bumps into me at Target, she doesn't know she just rubbed shoulders with the Bull. She thinks I was just some average joe and she will never think of the Bull again. You can make billions in this market but to the mainstream world you will never be anyone. I guess my ego drives me to prove it, hence the money I throw down in competitions against people. I guess if I can just show some people it satisfy that hunger inside of me.
2. Help People - Believe it or not this is the main reason. The Bull is so tired of money managers telling people about how great investing in CD's and mutual funds are. I am so sick of hearing how people have their money in savings. The interst rate is a 3.25% and dropping while inflation for this past year will at least be 3.5%. People are losing money in their savings accounts. CD's aren't much better. 5% now in days for one of those? And mutual funds, oh mutual funds. The Bull was watching CNBC last night and they had this guy on who was coined "one of the best mutual fund operators in the world" "who has brought in 12% returns on average for his clients the past 10 years". Where else could someone get away with this then in business? The SP 500 has grown over the last 10 years at an average rate of 13.25%!!! This guy has been a 10 year loser to the stock market and he is being named one of the best mutual fund owners in the world? The Bull just takes a sip of his crystal, takes a bite of his steak and laughs. Where else could this ever happen.
I want to actually help people make money. I am not saying to buy every stock I show everynight but take the picks and research them yourselves and make your picks. The Bull is not always right, nor pretends to be. But the Bull knows how to do one thing well...Make Money.
3. Love of Writing - I have always enjoyed writing about things that interest me. Whether it be sports, women, gambling or money. You would think the Wall Street Journal or Forbes would give the Bull a shot, but no offers so far.
4. Ego - Yes I already mentioned Ego, but this is a different category. It is more of a validation of myself. I have a slew of friends who are trying their luck in the stock market. Some more successful than the others. There is one who seems to actually get it and tries hard and he will be successful. There is one who graduated with a business degree, who use to pick stocks by looking at the bottom 5 stock of the day and hoping they rebound. I have another friend who couldn't tell you the differnce between a bull and bear market, and a couple other friends as well. I think it is safe to say most of them have tried their luck in the stock market because they have seen the success I have had. They figured, oh the Bull aint that smart, if he can do it so can I. Of course, as everyone knows, the Bull is one of a fucking kind. These friends got into the market and lost a huge % of their investment, albeit a lot of it had to do with the stock market rather than their actual picks. I have no doubt that all of them will turn out to be successful investors since they are all bright and most seem to really want it.
So what am I trying to prove? Oh, well people get in the market, lose money, and then try to explain their failures and other peoples success. The Bull heard it all, the Bull is only successful because of IPO's, the Bull is only successful bcasue he has ability to trade after hours/premarket, the Bull is only making money because of penny stock, the Bull is making money out of luck, the Bull is making money because he reads Jim Cramer's recap every night. The Bull got sick and tired of all this so he decided to show what he could do with just 5 grand and no tricks. Any loyal reader will know that the blog does not pick IPO's, Penny stocks, ETF's, Foreign stocks, or trade after hours or anything like that. The Bull and his readers simply pick stocks that tend to go up.
To be fair, maybe the Bull dreams up all this stuff because he needs motivation to write this blog. I have no doubt that my fellow traders and the friends I talk about will all be successful. It has been a hard last few months but I have no doubt that with hard work and determination we can all dream of one day being.....THE BULL.
Yours Truly,
THE BULL
Now to the meaning of this post. Why do I blog? Why do I take my time? Why does a man who is clearly making a living off the market decide to waste time talking and helping other people. Well, the Bull has asked himself those very questions today and I hope to be able to answer them right now.
1. EGO - No thats not the main reason but I decided to get it out of the way. Imagine knowing you are the worlds greatest golfer, then imagine yourself on a golf course with a million other people, wouldn't you want them to see the talent you have? The stock market is like that. I can make all the money I can ever dream of but who really knows about that. When the lady bumps into me at Target, she doesn't know she just rubbed shoulders with the Bull. She thinks I was just some average joe and she will never think of the Bull again. You can make billions in this market but to the mainstream world you will never be anyone. I guess my ego drives me to prove it, hence the money I throw down in competitions against people. I guess if I can just show some people it satisfy that hunger inside of me.
2. Help People - Believe it or not this is the main reason. The Bull is so tired of money managers telling people about how great investing in CD's and mutual funds are. I am so sick of hearing how people have their money in savings. The interst rate is a 3.25% and dropping while inflation for this past year will at least be 3.5%. People are losing money in their savings accounts. CD's aren't much better. 5% now in days for one of those? And mutual funds, oh mutual funds. The Bull was watching CNBC last night and they had this guy on who was coined "one of the best mutual fund operators in the world" "who has brought in 12% returns on average for his clients the past 10 years". Where else could someone get away with this then in business? The SP 500 has grown over the last 10 years at an average rate of 13.25%!!! This guy has been a 10 year loser to the stock market and he is being named one of the best mutual fund owners in the world? The Bull just takes a sip of his crystal, takes a bite of his steak and laughs. Where else could this ever happen.
I want to actually help people make money. I am not saying to buy every stock I show everynight but take the picks and research them yourselves and make your picks. The Bull is not always right, nor pretends to be. But the Bull knows how to do one thing well...Make Money.
3. Love of Writing - I have always enjoyed writing about things that interest me. Whether it be sports, women, gambling or money. You would think the Wall Street Journal or Forbes would give the Bull a shot, but no offers so far.
4. Ego - Yes I already mentioned Ego, but this is a different category. It is more of a validation of myself. I have a slew of friends who are trying their luck in the stock market. Some more successful than the others. There is one who seems to actually get it and tries hard and he will be successful. There is one who graduated with a business degree, who use to pick stocks by looking at the bottom 5 stock of the day and hoping they rebound. I have another friend who couldn't tell you the differnce between a bull and bear market, and a couple other friends as well. I think it is safe to say most of them have tried their luck in the stock market because they have seen the success I have had. They figured, oh the Bull aint that smart, if he can do it so can I. Of course, as everyone knows, the Bull is one of a fucking kind. These friends got into the market and lost a huge % of their investment, albeit a lot of it had to do with the stock market rather than their actual picks. I have no doubt that all of them will turn out to be successful investors since they are all bright and most seem to really want it.
So what am I trying to prove? Oh, well people get in the market, lose money, and then try to explain their failures and other peoples success. The Bull heard it all, the Bull is only successful because of IPO's, the Bull is only successful bcasue he has ability to trade after hours/premarket, the Bull is only making money because of penny stock, the Bull is making money out of luck, the Bull is making money because he reads Jim Cramer's recap every night. The Bull got sick and tired of all this so he decided to show what he could do with just 5 grand and no tricks. Any loyal reader will know that the blog does not pick IPO's, Penny stocks, ETF's, Foreign stocks, or trade after hours or anything like that. The Bull and his readers simply pick stocks that tend to go up.
To be fair, maybe the Bull dreams up all this stuff because he needs motivation to write this blog. I have no doubt that my fellow traders and the friends I talk about will all be successful. It has been a hard last few months but I have no doubt that with hard work and determination we can all dream of one day being.....THE BULL.
Yours Truly,
THE BULL
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Daily Picks
I apologize for my inability to get new picks in daily. I will get better and lets keep the buying and selling going.
As usual, lets start with the mistakes. Selling APAC! We road it up and then let it slip 20% and jumped ship only to see it go up 17% today. Crox dropped today but people are not sold it is a loser and our options lost money. GRMN got destroyed by earnings and lost 7%. Not very impressive.
Sell:
KALU - 700 shares at 74.82 for 52,374 dollars.
- I think this stock is one to own for the rest of the year but we need new picks daily to please the masses.
EPIX - 15,000 shares at 3.04 for 45,600 dollars.
- Stock blew past earnings but for some reason stayed down. I do not understand why.
GRMN - 800 shares at 64.43 for 51,544 dollars.
- No reason to own, long term it is going to 90.
CREE - 1,500 shares at 32.87 for 49,305 dollars.
- Was a one day stock and it came through.
Options:
CROX(22.50) - 45 dollars per contract x 1000 contracts for 45,000 dollars.
CROX(15) - 5 dollars per contract X 10,000 contracts for 50,000 dollars.
- This stock is volatile but in the end will continue to drop.
NTRI(15) - 65 dollars per contract X 2400 contracts = 156,000 dollars.
NTRI912.50) - 15 dollars per contract X 6,000 = 90,000 dollars.
Bank: 9,032.27 dollars.
Funds to play with: 548,855.27 dollars.
BUYING TIME:
HTZ - 14.38 for 3500 shares costing us 50,330 dollars.
- Should have a nice day tomorrow with earnings being beat and with its competitors crushing earnings.
GSK - 44.31 buy 1,200 shares for 53,172 dollars.
- See previous post, I think it could have a short term boost tomorrow but this is a good stock to own until April 3rd.
NVDA - 21.78 buy 2,300 shares for 50,094 dollars.
- Stock hit 3X2 today, 43/60 times it has come back next day. Average return is 2.03%
STEI - 6.38 buy 8,000 shares for 51,040 dollars.
- Same as NVDA
PGLA -1.40 buy 100,000 shares for 140,000 dollars.
- Bio Tech company on Nasdaq that is due for a snapback
Options:
SSRX - China pharma play that just missed bad earnings. I think it is the beginning of the end.
March 08 Put Option 10 dollar strike price at 45 cents per share, 45 dollars per contract. Buy 4,500 contracts or 202,500 dollars worth.
Do not forget we still own an option worth 600 bucks on BWLD.
Leaves us with 1719.27 dollars but subtract 54 for trades and we are at 1665.27 dollars in the bank.
Yours truly,
The Bull
As usual, lets start with the mistakes. Selling APAC! We road it up and then let it slip 20% and jumped ship only to see it go up 17% today. Crox dropped today but people are not sold it is a loser and our options lost money. GRMN got destroyed by earnings and lost 7%. Not very impressive.
Sell:
KALU - 700 shares at 74.82 for 52,374 dollars.
- I think this stock is one to own for the rest of the year but we need new picks daily to please the masses.
EPIX - 15,000 shares at 3.04 for 45,600 dollars.
- Stock blew past earnings but for some reason stayed down. I do not understand why.
GRMN - 800 shares at 64.43 for 51,544 dollars.
- No reason to own, long term it is going to 90.
CREE - 1,500 shares at 32.87 for 49,305 dollars.
- Was a one day stock and it came through.
Options:
CROX(22.50) - 45 dollars per contract x 1000 contracts for 45,000 dollars.
CROX(15) - 5 dollars per contract X 10,000 contracts for 50,000 dollars.
- This stock is volatile but in the end will continue to drop.
NTRI(15) - 65 dollars per contract X 2400 contracts = 156,000 dollars.
NTRI912.50) - 15 dollars per contract X 6,000 = 90,000 dollars.
Bank: 9,032.27 dollars.
Funds to play with: 548,855.27 dollars.
BUYING TIME:
HTZ - 14.38 for 3500 shares costing us 50,330 dollars.
- Should have a nice day tomorrow with earnings being beat and with its competitors crushing earnings.
GSK - 44.31 buy 1,200 shares for 53,172 dollars.
- See previous post, I think it could have a short term boost tomorrow but this is a good stock to own until April 3rd.
NVDA - 21.78 buy 2,300 shares for 50,094 dollars.
- Stock hit 3X2 today, 43/60 times it has come back next day. Average return is 2.03%
STEI - 6.38 buy 8,000 shares for 51,040 dollars.
- Same as NVDA
PGLA -1.40 buy 100,000 shares for 140,000 dollars.
- Bio Tech company on Nasdaq that is due for a snapback
Options:
SSRX - China pharma play that just missed bad earnings. I think it is the beginning of the end.
March 08 Put Option 10 dollar strike price at 45 cents per share, 45 dollars per contract. Buy 4,500 contracts or 202,500 dollars worth.
Do not forget we still own an option worth 600 bucks on BWLD.
Leaves us with 1719.27 dollars but subtract 54 for trades and we are at 1665.27 dollars in the bank.
Yours truly,
The Bull
GSK - BUY IT
GSK engages in the creation, discovery, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical and consumer health-related products. Its Pharmaceuticals segment manufactures prescription drugs and vaccines that are used in various therapeutic areas, including central nervous system, respiratory, anti-viral, anti-bacterial, oncology and emesis, metabolic, cardiovascular, and urogenital. This segment primarily offers Seretide/Advair for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Avandia group of products for diabetes, Lamictal for epilepsy and bipolar disorder; Wellbutrin, an anti-depressant; Zofran to prevent nausea and vomiting associated with chemotherapy and radiotherapy for cancer; Valtrex for herpes; Coreg for heart disease; Imigran/Imitrex for migraine and cluster headache, and Flixotide/Flovent, an inhaled steroid for the treatment of inflammation associated with asthma and COPD, as well as vaccines. The company's Consumer Healthcare segment offers over-the-counter medicines, oral care, and nutritional healthcare products. Its products comprise Lucozade energy and sports drinks; Aquafresh and Sensodyne toothpastes and mouthwashes; Panadol,a paracetamol/ acetaminophen analgesic; and Ribena, a blackcurrant juice-based drink. GlaxoSmithKline operates in the United States, Europe, Japan, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Canada. It has strategic alliances with Theravance, Inc.; Targacept, Inc.; Santaris Pharma A/S; and Anacor Pharmaceuticals, Inc. GlaxoSmithKline also has a research and collaboration agreement with EvoGenix Limited, as well as a collaboration agreement with Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp. to jointly develop and commercialize STA-4783, a small-molecule oxidative stress inducer for the treatment of metastatic melanoma.
Read this article;
http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2008/02/18/daily28.html
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/gsk-receives-favorable-recommendation-by-fda-advisory-committee-for-rotarixr,286616.shtml
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10404288/1/fda-panel-blesses-glaxos-rotavirus-vaccine.html
In sum, the chances are very good this drug gets approved by April third and if it does this stock should go up a nice gain.
Get in, make some money.
The Bull
Read this article;
http://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/stories/2008/02/18/daily28.html
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/gsk-receives-favorable-recommendation-by-fda-advisory-committee-for-rotarixr,286616.shtml
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10404288/1/fda-panel-blesses-glaxos-rotavirus-vaccine.html
In sum, the chances are very good this drug gets approved by April third and if it does this stock should go up a nice gain.
Get in, make some money.
The Bull
ETF's
ETF is short for "Exchange Traded Fund". Most of you have probably heard of ETF's but have little idea what they truly are. There are thousands of ETF's available to stock holders, many that destroy the stock market on a yearly basis, destroy 95% of mutual funds yet no one besides the most knowledgeable traders delve into them?
ETF's basically mean you invest in a collection of stocks. You can buy the Dow Jones which means you own all thirty shares of the Dow, or you can buy the NYSE which means you own every single stock on the exchange. You can own the Brazil stock market, the Berlin, and all the way over to the Korean stock markets. You can own oil, copper, gold, and other materials. You can even own something as specific as "small-cap takeover possibilities on Brazilian stock market". The ends are limitless.
The Top ETF in the world and under owned is EWZ, which is the ETF for the Brazilian stock exchange.
Here is a five year look at the ETF compared to the major stock indexes in America.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=EWZ&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI
Three other ETF's I love:
1. EEB - Emerging stock markets fund
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=EEB&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI
2. INP - Pacific stock exchanges(meaning Asia not west coast)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=INP&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI
3. EWG - European emerging stock markets
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EWG&t=5y
If you like 20-50% returns per year then get in these, or become a bear.
The Bull
ETF's basically mean you invest in a collection of stocks. You can buy the Dow Jones which means you own all thirty shares of the Dow, or you can buy the NYSE which means you own every single stock on the exchange. You can own the Brazil stock market, the Berlin, and all the way over to the Korean stock markets. You can own oil, copper, gold, and other materials. You can even own something as specific as "small-cap takeover possibilities on Brazilian stock market". The ends are limitless.
The Top ETF in the world and under owned is EWZ, which is the ETF for the Brazilian stock exchange.
Here is a five year look at the ETF compared to the major stock indexes in America.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=EWZ&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI
Three other ETF's I love:
1. EEB - Emerging stock markets fund
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=EEB&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI
2. INP - Pacific stock exchanges(meaning Asia not west coast)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=INP&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EGSPC&c=%5EIXIC&c=%5EDJI
3. EWG - European emerging stock markets
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EWG&t=5y
If you like 20-50% returns per year then get in these, or become a bear.
The Bull
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Update and Transactions
Let me begin by apologizing for my inability to get new picks in this past week so far. I promise you that I did have a post written in which we sold everything and had purchased two stocks but since I could not find more, I put it off and never got around to it until tonight. Sadly in that time APAC has dropped 20%! Our option on BWLD at 30 cents dropped over 80% today! Amat dropped about 50% but Nile continued to soar.
Selling:
APAC: 7070 shares at current price of 85 cents = 6009.5 dollars, DOWN 14.2%
BWLD(40 dollar option) - 5 cents per share, 2000 contracts = 10,000 dollars. Even
AMAT - 20 cents per share, 340 shares = 6,800 dollars. EVEN
NILE (55 dollar option) - 13.5 per share, 20 contacts = 27,000 dollars. Up 229.27%
NILE (40 dollar option) - 2.95 per share, 1300 contracts = 383,500 dollars. Up 2,850%
HOLDING:
BWLD: 30 dollar strike price March 08 call option currently valued at 5 cents per share. We have 120 shares which means 600 dollars. Down 90%
Cost of sales: 34 dollars
Money in bank total with sells: 433,731.27 dollars.
Total net worth: 434,331.27 dollars. Up 8,586.63%
BUYING:
Stocks:
KALU - 71.91 price, buy 700 shares at cost of 50,337 dollars.
Note: Stock did release great earnings today and already jumped 5% but I believe this stock has legs for the long run and don't see it slowing any time soon. Kaiser also has a great balance sheet with its Return on Assets at 14% and it’s Return on Equity over 20%. Kaiser has a low debt to revenue growth ratio with $60 million in debt to 11% revenue growth. With a tight float and strong out performance by its lesser peers, Kaiser is ready to run.
That is the safe pick, the rest are pure risk, but why not:
EPIX: 3.01 price, buy 15,000 shares for 45,150 dollars.
Note: It opened up large today but dropped all the way back down to 3 dollars. This stock has been hammered and is expecting huge losses. The reason we are in is because this stock is being squeezed by the shorts and any sign of good news will make this stock soar.
GRMN: 69.50 price, buy 800 shares for 55,600 dollars
Note: owned this stock in my real money portfolio. It is working its way back and
hopefully the earnings are good and the stock can continue on its recent momentum.
CREE: 32.39 price, buy 1,500 shares for 48,585 dollars.
Note: 3X2 triggered, and 41/55 times this happened the stock went up. On average day after it goes up 3.3%
Options:
CROX: This company is going broke in time. They hit there prime and are missing every quarter since. Its about time we start enjoying the ride down.
March 08 option put at 22.50 priced at 55 cents per share or 55 dollars per contract. 1000 dollars contract means 55,000 dollars worth.
March 08 option put at 15 dollar strike price, priced at 5 cents per share or 5 dollar per contract. Buy 10,000 contacts worth or 50,000 dollar worth.
NTRI: "Stock loses 25% every two weeks"
I am sold this stock is a loser for a while. Lets get some options on it.
1. March 08 option put at 15.00 dollar strike price. 25 cents per share means 25 dollars per contract. Lets spend 60,000 and get 2400 contracts.
2. March 08 option put at 12.50 dollar strike price. 10 cents per share means 10 dollars per contract. Lets spend another 60,000 and receive 6,000 contracts.
This leaves us with 9,059.27 dollars.
Cost of transactions is 27 dollars which leaves us with 9,032.27 dollars.
At this time I would usually mention a penny stock but lets not.
Good luck to all,
The Bull
Selling:
APAC: 7070 shares at current price of 85 cents = 6009.5 dollars, DOWN 14.2%
BWLD(40 dollar option) - 5 cents per share, 2000 contracts = 10,000 dollars. Even
AMAT - 20 cents per share, 340 shares = 6,800 dollars. EVEN
NILE (55 dollar option) - 13.5 per share, 20 contacts = 27,000 dollars. Up 229.27%
NILE (40 dollar option) - 2.95 per share, 1300 contracts = 383,500 dollars. Up 2,850%
HOLDING:
BWLD: 30 dollar strike price March 08 call option currently valued at 5 cents per share. We have 120 shares which means 600 dollars. Down 90%
Cost of sales: 34 dollars
Money in bank total with sells: 433,731.27 dollars.
Total net worth: 434,331.27 dollars. Up 8,586.63%
BUYING:
Stocks:
KALU - 71.91 price, buy 700 shares at cost of 50,337 dollars.
Note: Stock did release great earnings today and already jumped 5% but I believe this stock has legs for the long run and don't see it slowing any time soon. Kaiser also has a great balance sheet with its Return on Assets at 14% and it’s Return on Equity over 20%. Kaiser has a low debt to revenue growth ratio with $60 million in debt to 11% revenue growth. With a tight float and strong out performance by its lesser peers, Kaiser is ready to run.
That is the safe pick, the rest are pure risk, but why not:
EPIX: 3.01 price, buy 15,000 shares for 45,150 dollars.
Note: It opened up large today but dropped all the way back down to 3 dollars. This stock has been hammered and is expecting huge losses. The reason we are in is because this stock is being squeezed by the shorts and any sign of good news will make this stock soar.
GRMN: 69.50 price, buy 800 shares for 55,600 dollars
Note: owned this stock in my real money portfolio. It is working its way back and
hopefully the earnings are good and the stock can continue on its recent momentum.
CREE: 32.39 price, buy 1,500 shares for 48,585 dollars.
Note: 3X2 triggered, and 41/55 times this happened the stock went up. On average day after it goes up 3.3%
Options:
CROX: This company is going broke in time. They hit there prime and are missing every quarter since. Its about time we start enjoying the ride down.
March 08 option put at 22.50 priced at 55 cents per share or 55 dollars per contract. 1000 dollars contract means 55,000 dollars worth.
March 08 option put at 15 dollar strike price, priced at 5 cents per share or 5 dollar per contract. Buy 10,000 contacts worth or 50,000 dollar worth.
NTRI: "Stock loses 25% every two weeks"
I am sold this stock is a loser for a while. Lets get some options on it.
1. March 08 option put at 15.00 dollar strike price. 25 cents per share means 25 dollars per contract. Lets spend 60,000 and get 2400 contracts.
2. March 08 option put at 12.50 dollar strike price. 10 cents per share means 10 dollars per contract. Lets spend another 60,000 and receive 6,000 contracts.
This leaves us with 9,059.27 dollars.
Cost of transactions is 27 dollars which leaves us with 9,032.27 dollars.
At this time I would usually mention a penny stock but lets not.
Good luck to all,
The Bull
Sunday, February 17, 2008
One Month Aniversary
Well, folks today is the one month anniversary of this wonderful blog. I figured I would take the chance to allow everyone to give their suggestions and comments.
What kind of entries would people like to see more.
A. Stock Picks
B. Single Stock Highlights and explanations(Like SIRI)
C. More updates on portfolio and more insight to the picks
D. More Lessons(how to do stuff)
E. More advanced trading
Any suggestions and comments please do comment. This blog is nothing without its loyal and growing supporters.
The Bull
What kind of entries would people like to see more.
A. Stock Picks
B. Single Stock Highlights and explanations(Like SIRI)
C. More updates on portfolio and more insight to the picks
D. More Lessons(how to do stuff)
E. More advanced trading
Any suggestions and comments please do comment. This blog is nothing without its loyal and growing supporters.
The Bull
5,000 dollar bet
Basics:
1. Much like the stock picking contest. The winner of this challenge will win instead of 100 dollars, 5,000 dollars, available in American Dollars or Euro's.
2. Contest will be limited to the first 50 participants.
3. Contest wil start March 1st and last until May 31st(subject to change before March 1st)
4. Contestants risk nothing, but are obligated to help support this wonderful community.
5. If I am not the winner, I will transfer money via an off shore swiss bank account to an account of the winners choosing.
6. Anyone caught cheating in anyway will be automatically tossed from the challenge.
Rules:
1. Each particpant will choose one option to start with. During the process of the game they are able to sell their current option or exercise it and choose another option up to 4 times. In other words, if you wanted to, you could own five different options throughout the contest.
2. You can never own more than one option at the same time.
3. All options must be simple naked calls and puts.
4. All options must be on companies that sell on either the Nasdaq, Amex, NYSE.
All rules are subject to change before March 1st, after that all rules are binding.
I will announce when you will be able to sign up, I have to get things straightened out and get a site where everyone can log into to check there progress.
God Bless,
The Bull
1. Much like the stock picking contest. The winner of this challenge will win instead of 100 dollars, 5,000 dollars, available in American Dollars or Euro's.
2. Contest will be limited to the first 50 participants.
3. Contest wil start March 1st and last until May 31st(subject to change before March 1st)
4. Contestants risk nothing, but are obligated to help support this wonderful community.
5. If I am not the winner, I will transfer money via an off shore swiss bank account to an account of the winners choosing.
6. Anyone caught cheating in anyway will be automatically tossed from the challenge.
Rules:
1. Each particpant will choose one option to start with. During the process of the game they are able to sell their current option or exercise it and choose another option up to 4 times. In other words, if you wanted to, you could own five different options throughout the contest.
2. You can never own more than one option at the same time.
3. All options must be simple naked calls and puts.
4. All options must be on companies that sell on either the Nasdaq, Amex, NYSE.
All rules are subject to change before March 1st, after that all rules are binding.
I will announce when you will be able to sign up, I have to get things straightened out and get a site where everyone can log into to check there progress.
God Bless,
The Bull
Updates for the Portfolio
Update:
APAC - 7070 shares, 1.07 per share. Value = 7564.90 dollars, up 8.1%
BLWD(40 dollar strike price) - 5 cents per share, 2000 contracts. Value = 10,000, 0.0% increase.
BWLD (30 dollar strike price)- 25 cents per share, 120 contracts. Value = 3,000 dollars, DOWN 50%.
AMAT (20 dollar strike price) - 38 cents per share, 340 contacts. Value = 12920, up 26.67%
NILE (40 dollar put strike price) - 2.10 dollar per share, 1300 contacts. Value = 273,000 dollars. Up = 2,000%
Nile (55 dollar put strike price) - Exercisng this option in the money. The stock is currently at 43.97. At 55 dollar strike price we subtract 43.97 from 55 and we get 11.03 dollars per share. At 20 contacts, that means total value = 22,060 dollars. Up 169%.
Total Assests: 328,554.90 dollars.
Bank: 455.77 dollars.
Net Worth: 329,000.67 dollars, up 6,480%
The Bull
APAC - 7070 shares, 1.07 per share. Value = 7564.90 dollars, up 8.1%
BLWD(40 dollar strike price) - 5 cents per share, 2000 contracts. Value = 10,000, 0.0% increase.
BWLD (30 dollar strike price)- 25 cents per share, 120 contracts. Value = 3,000 dollars, DOWN 50%.
AMAT (20 dollar strike price) - 38 cents per share, 340 contacts. Value = 12920, up 26.67%
NILE (40 dollar put strike price) - 2.10 dollar per share, 1300 contacts. Value = 273,000 dollars. Up = 2,000%
Nile (55 dollar put strike price) - Exercisng this option in the money. The stock is currently at 43.97. At 55 dollar strike price we subtract 43.97 from 55 and we get 11.03 dollars per share. At 20 contacts, that means total value = 22,060 dollars. Up 169%.
Total Assests: 328,554.90 dollars.
Bank: 455.77 dollars.
Net Worth: 329,000.67 dollars, up 6,480%
The Bull
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Redemption, Transactions for the Portfolio
I begin with an apology. For those who followed me on my inane journey with ABK paid the price today. CMC option never moved and I come out looking like an idiot. Thats my fault and it won't happen again. Now its time for us to get back on track. Finally had some time to do some research for us all. Lets begin:
Last time I forgot to include transaction costs in our funds. So we will subtract 21 dollars from out total funds.
Now lets begin by selling it all:
After the costs we had 31,750.26 dollars in the bank
Sell:
CMC option - Still worth exactly 8,000 dollars.
SIRF option - 200 contracts at 20 cents per share means 4,000 dollars.
ABK - 769.23 shares x 8.90 = 6846.15 dollars
RIO - 134.73 shares x 32.00 = 4311.36 dollars.
Cost of selling options = 10 dollars.
Total net worth: 54,898.77 dollars.
Lets begin with Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
Stock has jumped up big in after hours due to a great quarter. This was a popular pick in people forecasting in 08 and I think the options are vastly underpriced.
Here is a link to the march options on BWLD
1. March 08 option at 40 dollar strike price at 5 cents per share(5 per contract) is an absolute steal. Let's stick 10,000 in there which gives us 2000 contracts.
2. March 08 option at 30 dollar strike price at 50 cents per share(50 per contract). Lets stick 6,000 dollars in there and get 120 contracts.
Applied Materials (AMAT)
1. March 08 option at 20 dollar strike price at 30 cents per share so 30 dollars per contract. Buy 10,200 worth or 340 contracts.
https://us.etrade.com/e/t/investingandtrading/qandroptionschains
BLUE NILE (NILE)
- Stock plummeted after hours and the option we are looking at went from 5 to 20 cents (100% increase) but the option belongs much higher when looked at comparatively to its competitors stocks that are near the money.
March 08 PUT option at 40 dollar strike price at 10 cents per share or 10 dollars per contract. 13,000 dollar worth or 1300 contracts.
March 08 put option at 55 dollar strike price at 4.10 dollar per share. so 410 dollars per contract. 8,200 dollars worth means 20 contracts worth.
APAC
99 cents per share, we will buy 7070 shares for 7000 dollars.
That leaves over 498.77 dollars, but trading costs will be 43 dollars for these buys which leaves us with 455.77 dollars.
Last time I forgot to include transaction costs in our funds. So we will subtract 21 dollars from out total funds.
Now lets begin by selling it all:
After the costs we had 31,750.26 dollars in the bank
Sell:
CMC option - Still worth exactly 8,000 dollars.
SIRF option - 200 contracts at 20 cents per share means 4,000 dollars.
ABK - 769.23 shares x 8.90 = 6846.15 dollars
RIO - 134.73 shares x 32.00 = 4311.36 dollars.
Cost of selling options = 10 dollars.
Total net worth: 54,898.77 dollars.
Lets begin with Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
Stock has jumped up big in after hours due to a great quarter. This was a popular pick in people forecasting in 08 and I think the options are vastly underpriced.
Here is a link to the march options on BWLD
1. March 08 option at 40 dollar strike price at 5 cents per share(5 per contract) is an absolute steal. Let's stick 10,000 in there which gives us 2000 contracts.
2. March 08 option at 30 dollar strike price at 50 cents per share(50 per contract). Lets stick 6,000 dollars in there and get 120 contracts.
Applied Materials (AMAT)
1. March 08 option at 20 dollar strike price at 30 cents per share so 30 dollars per contract. Buy 10,200 worth or 340 contracts.
https://us.etrade.com/e/t/investingandtrading/qandroptionschains
BLUE NILE (NILE)
- Stock plummeted after hours and the option we are looking at went from 5 to 20 cents (100% increase) but the option belongs much higher when looked at comparatively to its competitors stocks that are near the money.
March 08 PUT option at 40 dollar strike price at 10 cents per share or 10 dollars per contract. 13,000 dollar worth or 1300 contracts.
March 08 put option at 55 dollar strike price at 4.10 dollar per share. so 410 dollars per contract. 8,200 dollars worth means 20 contracts worth.
APAC
99 cents per share, we will buy 7070 shares for 7000 dollars.
That leaves over 498.77 dollars, but trading costs will be 43 dollars for these buys which leaves us with 455.77 dollars.
In Defense of Cramer and the Market
If you follow the stock market you have surely at least heard the name Jim Cramer. He is that guy on CNBC throwing chairs and toys and promoting his books at every chance he gets while giving a stock pick or two every night at 6 a clock ET(replayed at 11).
Typically, you hear about how the show is only for "dumbasses who are easily entertained", "people who can't do their own homework", "people who follow a washed-up hasband" and most commonly "fools". The "educated, sophisticated and professional" traders write article after article ripping on Jim Cramer and saying one would do better to even short(bet against his picks) his stock picks.
There was a website that use(it seems to have been disabled) that use to compare Jim Cramer's picks to what a monkey named George would pick on the same stocks, and over time Jim Cramer barely was able to beat out the monkey.
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/04/best-and-worst-is-jim-cramer-crazy-like-a-fox-or-just-madly-obnox/
This blog talks about the results.
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Cramer/
This was a study done that shows Cramer was right about 48% of the time which they call is about "average".
The famed writer(and supposed financial mind) Henry Blodget wrote how no one should ever follow Jim Cramer in this piece:
http://www.slate.com/id/2158497/fr/flyout
There are countless other studies and articles that have been written that all strike at this same point, that Jim Cramer is a bumbling idiot. But is that really the truth?
What does being right 48% tell us, how does one judge if that is "average" as his opponents claim it is? Trying to judge the ability of Jim Cramer off the stat that he is right 48% of the time is complete ignorance. How well does he do on the 48% of the time he is right? Does his average pick that is correct go up 20% and his average pick that is wrong go down 5% and therefore he averages a 15% on everyone of his picks? Without any further data it is impossible to criticize him for "only" being right 48% of the time. For in my own strategy, I attempt not to hit 90% of my pick but rather that I limit my losses from 0-3% and try to make the stocks I get right be up 10%+, but If I only hit 50% people would think I just come out even over time.
Then there is the Monkey George who almost out performs Jim Cramer. Let me begin by saying that if I had to predict, I would think that George the Monkey out performed 75% of the people in the stock market on a yearly basis when the studies were done. For all we know, Jim Cramer was up 40% and monkey was up 38%. But how can I be so confided that the monkey would do better than the average person? Jim Cramer on average almost always beats the market(wall street goes by the SP500 not the Dow Jones when comparing)on a year to year basis yet 80% of mutual funds which are all ran by "professional traders" lose to the stock market indexes on a year to year basis. Now the reasons Mutual funds have a hard time go far beyond the realm of all the "professional traders" being "incompetent idiots", but the point is that the pros usually lose to the market. I believe that the average person would have a better chance closing their eyes and picking stocks at random then they do by trying to do their homework and make picks. Why is this? Most people believe they are much smarter than they really are, they look around at people who are doing well and of course think, "I am much smarter, so I will make more money", and then when they fail they blame it on luck instead of their incompetence. Yet still, one might say well "you are yet to explain why Cramer can barely beat a fucking monkey". The reason this data is skewed is because it takes all of Jim Cramer's picks into consideration. This is a problem since any avid view of his would know that in the lighting round just because he gives a stock a SELL rating does not mean he think the stock will go down but could likely just mean that he likes a stock in the same sector more than that one. These results use these stocks as him selling them, but give no credit for the stock he picks in the lighting round as a better one. Numerous other studies have been done on just the picks he prepares for the show which overwhelmingly show his picks to gain over 30% in the next year on average.
Then finally, there is the piece about how Jim Cramer is nothing but a babbling idiot. Most professional traders and scholars seem to have a distaste fro Jim Cramer because they thin his audience is a bunch of ignorant morons who follow the advice of some guy how throws chairs and screams on TV as their financial guru. There are a myriad of articles written about how he has no idea what he is talking about and how he will lose you money, but one has to look no further than his resume to see that the critics have no idea what they are talking about. Cramer grew up as an underpriviliged child in Philidelphia, where he earned a scholarship to Harvard, he then become the editor of the Crimson Tide(the Harvard newspaper) which was no easy feat and then was accepted and graduated from Harvard Law school. He talked his way into a job at Goldman(only one without a business degree to have ever worked there), and he went on to become there top day trader in his five year span at Goldman. He left Goldman because they were mad that he "wasted" time in trying to get big clients and specifically were upset over some guy named Steve Ballmer who they thought wasn't worth the time due to his limited capital. Of course Steve Ballmer now runs Microsoft and is one of Goldman's top clients. Cramer then went onto start his own Hedge Fund which returned over 60% on a yearly basis which put him as the number 3 hedge fund in the 20 year span of 1985-2005.(That is out of 10,000 hedge funds). How many of his critics have ever had a job outside of being a financial analyst at a bank? How many ran a hedge fund, and how many ran a successful hedge fund? Somehow this dufus is able to get the Whales like Soros, Ichan and Buffet to come onto his circus show, how though? Because they know him and know how smart and talented he is. He doesn't need the approval of some guy who writes for Slate Magazine, the best in the game know what he is all about, making MAD MONEY.
Finally here is an important blog post from Marc Cuban.
The only problem I have with this entire piece is the title of it. As his first commenter says, it should be titled "The Stock market is for the informed", instead of for the suckers. I think this piece is a good read for anyone just starting in the market or thinking about getting in the market. I will save myself the time of going over his theories and giving my thoughts on them but to say I think he misses one important thing. There is no doubt that people on wall street have an advantage over the average joe, but the thing is, the average person can always follow the big money. Stock Picker has the portfolios of Buffet, Ichan, Soros, Lampert, ECT. The stock market also supplies ETF's, which lets a person just own say the Dow Jones Industrial(can anyone believe they got rid of Altria?), so they don't need to take a chance on owning individual stocks. The market is a tool to make money, if you can't beat it, just own it.
The Bull
Typically, you hear about how the show is only for "dumbasses who are easily entertained", "people who can't do their own homework", "people who follow a washed-up hasband" and most commonly "fools". The "educated, sophisticated and professional" traders write article after article ripping on Jim Cramer and saying one would do better to even short(bet against his picks) his stock picks.
There was a website that use(it seems to have been disabled) that use to compare Jim Cramer's picks to what a monkey named George would pick on the same stocks, and over time Jim Cramer barely was able to beat out the monkey.
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/04/best-and-worst-is-jim-cramer-crazy-like-a-fox-or-just-madly-obnox/
This blog talks about the results.
http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/Cramer/
This was a study done that shows Cramer was right about 48% of the time which they call is about "average".
The famed writer(and supposed financial mind) Henry Blodget wrote how no one should ever follow Jim Cramer in this piece:
http://www.slate.com/id/2158497/fr/flyout
There are countless other studies and articles that have been written that all strike at this same point, that Jim Cramer is a bumbling idiot. But is that really the truth?
What does being right 48% tell us, how does one judge if that is "average" as his opponents claim it is? Trying to judge the ability of Jim Cramer off the stat that he is right 48% of the time is complete ignorance. How well does he do on the 48% of the time he is right? Does his average pick that is correct go up 20% and his average pick that is wrong go down 5% and therefore he averages a 15% on everyone of his picks? Without any further data it is impossible to criticize him for "only" being right 48% of the time. For in my own strategy, I attempt not to hit 90% of my pick but rather that I limit my losses from 0-3% and try to make the stocks I get right be up 10%+, but If I only hit 50% people would think I just come out even over time.
Then there is the Monkey George who almost out performs Jim Cramer. Let me begin by saying that if I had to predict, I would think that George the Monkey out performed 75% of the people in the stock market on a yearly basis when the studies were done. For all we know, Jim Cramer was up 40% and monkey was up 38%. But how can I be so confided that the monkey would do better than the average person? Jim Cramer on average almost always beats the market(wall street goes by the SP500 not the Dow Jones when comparing)on a year to year basis yet 80% of mutual funds which are all ran by "professional traders" lose to the stock market indexes on a year to year basis. Now the reasons Mutual funds have a hard time go far beyond the realm of all the "professional traders" being "incompetent idiots", but the point is that the pros usually lose to the market. I believe that the average person would have a better chance closing their eyes and picking stocks at random then they do by trying to do their homework and make picks. Why is this? Most people believe they are much smarter than they really are, they look around at people who are doing well and of course think, "I am much smarter, so I will make more money", and then when they fail they blame it on luck instead of their incompetence. Yet still, one might say well "you are yet to explain why Cramer can barely beat a fucking monkey". The reason this data is skewed is because it takes all of Jim Cramer's picks into consideration. This is a problem since any avid view of his would know that in the lighting round just because he gives a stock a SELL rating does not mean he think the stock will go down but could likely just mean that he likes a stock in the same sector more than that one. These results use these stocks as him selling them, but give no credit for the stock he picks in the lighting round as a better one. Numerous other studies have been done on just the picks he prepares for the show which overwhelmingly show his picks to gain over 30% in the next year on average.
Then finally, there is the piece about how Jim Cramer is nothing but a babbling idiot. Most professional traders and scholars seem to have a distaste fro Jim Cramer because they thin his audience is a bunch of ignorant morons who follow the advice of some guy how throws chairs and screams on TV as their financial guru. There are a myriad of articles written about how he has no idea what he is talking about and how he will lose you money, but one has to look no further than his resume to see that the critics have no idea what they are talking about. Cramer grew up as an underpriviliged child in Philidelphia, where he earned a scholarship to Harvard, he then become the editor of the Crimson Tide(the Harvard newspaper) which was no easy feat and then was accepted and graduated from Harvard Law school. He talked his way into a job at Goldman(only one without a business degree to have ever worked there), and he went on to become there top day trader in his five year span at Goldman. He left Goldman because they were mad that he "wasted" time in trying to get big clients and specifically were upset over some guy named Steve Ballmer who they thought wasn't worth the time due to his limited capital. Of course Steve Ballmer now runs Microsoft and is one of Goldman's top clients. Cramer then went onto start his own Hedge Fund which returned over 60% on a yearly basis which put him as the number 3 hedge fund in the 20 year span of 1985-2005.(That is out of 10,000 hedge funds). How many of his critics have ever had a job outside of being a financial analyst at a bank? How many ran a hedge fund, and how many ran a successful hedge fund? Somehow this dufus is able to get the Whales like Soros, Ichan and Buffet to come onto his circus show, how though? Because they know him and know how smart and talented he is. He doesn't need the approval of some guy who writes for Slate Magazine, the best in the game know what he is all about, making MAD MONEY.
Finally here is an important blog post from Marc Cuban.
The only problem I have with this entire piece is the title of it. As his first commenter says, it should be titled "The Stock market is for the informed", instead of for the suckers. I think this piece is a good read for anyone just starting in the market or thinking about getting in the market. I will save myself the time of going over his theories and giving my thoughts on them but to say I think he misses one important thing. There is no doubt that people on wall street have an advantage over the average joe, but the thing is, the average person can always follow the big money. Stock Picker has the portfolios of Buffet, Ichan, Soros, Lampert, ECT. The stock market also supplies ETF's, which lets a person just own say the Dow Jones Industrial(can anyone believe they got rid of Altria?), so they don't need to take a chance on owning individual stocks. The market is a tool to make money, if you can't beat it, just own it.
The Bull
Monday, February 11, 2008
Transactions
Selling:
NYX - 56.31 shares ended today at69.80. Value = 3930.44 dollars
CROX - 103 shares ended today at 32.00 dollars. Value = 3296 dollars
Note: NYX did not have the kickback that I was hoping for. It is time to sell. As for Crox, should have sold last time I updated, dropped three bucks since. Selling now, if Fed Cuts again buy it back.
CMC(35 strike) - 25 contracts, ended today at 1.40. Value = 3500 dollars
CMC (40 strike) - 70 contracts, ended today at .60. Value = 4200 dollars
Note: I still very much believe in these options but I have no patience with this.
AIG - 73 contacts, ended today at 4.40. Value = 32,120 dollars
Note: I think it drops lower but you have to diversify no matter how aggressive you are.
Holding:
RIO - 134.73 shares ended today at 31.91. Value = 4299.23 dollars
Note: Limit Sell on RIO at 31.25
SIRF - 200 contracts, ended today at .21. Value = 4200 dollars
Note: Sticking with it.
Funds available for purchasing: 47,771.26
Buying:
CMC - Feb 08, Put option at 22.50 strike price at 5 cents per share. 8,000 dollars worth means 1600 contracts.
Note: I believe this is a good buy even though I think CMC goes up over time, because the 20.00 option is at 20 cents per share. How can that be? It does not make sense, buy the CMC put feb 08 option at 22.50 strike price.
ABK - 10.40 a share, 8,000 dollars. 769.23 shares.
Note: Stop loss at 10 dollars per share.
I would buy more, but I don't see any picks right now. I think tomorrow will be a good day though which sucks not to own more stocks but this is not a interday trading blog so we won't start.
NYX - 56.31 shares ended today at69.80. Value = 3930.44 dollars
CROX - 103 shares ended today at 32.00 dollars. Value = 3296 dollars
Note: NYX did not have the kickback that I was hoping for. It is time to sell. As for Crox, should have sold last time I updated, dropped three bucks since. Selling now, if Fed Cuts again buy it back.
CMC(35 strike) - 25 contracts, ended today at 1.40. Value = 3500 dollars
CMC (40 strike) - 70 contracts, ended today at .60. Value = 4200 dollars
Note: I still very much believe in these options but I have no patience with this.
AIG - 73 contacts, ended today at 4.40. Value = 32,120 dollars
Note: I think it drops lower but you have to diversify no matter how aggressive you are.
Holding:
RIO - 134.73 shares ended today at 31.91. Value = 4299.23 dollars
Note: Limit Sell on RIO at 31.25
SIRF - 200 contracts, ended today at .21. Value = 4200 dollars
Note: Sticking with it.
Funds available for purchasing: 47,771.26
Buying:
CMC - Feb 08, Put option at 22.50 strike price at 5 cents per share. 8,000 dollars worth means 1600 contracts.
Note: I believe this is a good buy even though I think CMC goes up over time, because the 20.00 option is at 20 cents per share. How can that be? It does not make sense, buy the CMC put feb 08 option at 22.50 strike price.
ABK - 10.40 a share, 8,000 dollars. 769.23 shares.
Note: Stop loss at 10 dollars per share.
I would buy more, but I don't see any picks right now. I think tomorrow will be a good day though which sucks not to own more stocks but this is not a interday trading blog so we won't start.
Update and Transactions
Stocks:
RIO - 134.73 shares ended today at 31.91. Value = 4299.23 dollars
NYX - 56.31 shares ended today at69.80. Value = 3930.44 dollars
CROX - 103 shares ended today at 32.00 dollars. Value = 3296 dollars
Total value: 11,525.67 dollar
Options:
CMC(35 strike) - 25 contracts, ended today at 1.40. Value = 3500 dollars
CMC (40 strike) - 70 contracts, ended today at .60. Value = 4200 dollars
SIRF - 200 contracts, ended today at .21. Value = 4200 dollars
AIG - 73 contacts, ended today at 4.40. Value = 32,120 dollars
Total value = 44,020 dollars
Bank: 724.82 dollars.
Net Worth: 56,270.49 dollars.
We will be buying and selling later tonight.
The Bull
RIO - 134.73 shares ended today at 31.91. Value = 4299.23 dollars
NYX - 56.31 shares ended today at69.80. Value = 3930.44 dollars
CROX - 103 shares ended today at 32.00 dollars. Value = 3296 dollars
Total value: 11,525.67 dollar
Options:
CMC(35 strike) - 25 contracts, ended today at 1.40. Value = 3500 dollars
CMC (40 strike) - 70 contracts, ended today at .60. Value = 4200 dollars
SIRF - 200 contracts, ended today at .21. Value = 4200 dollars
AIG - 73 contacts, ended today at 4.40. Value = 32,120 dollars
Total value = 44,020 dollars
Bank: 724.82 dollars.
Net Worth: 56,270.49 dollars.
We will be buying and selling later tonight.
The Bull
AIG, how did we get it right?
AIG, at a five year low? AIG the company that has never dropped over 10% in a single day over a 20 year span drops 11+% today? How did we get it right?
We followed the money! Clearly there were people on Wall Street who didn't believe AIG when they said "We expect and have no fiscal problems stemming from the credit crisis", and surely these people laughed when AIG said "We will post a 1.96 billion dollar loss", and all of these people(which there are likely very few) went CHA CHING when AIG came clean with the truth. Why were the Put Options so cheap for AIG? Because this was a company that went up and down slowly, they don't drop 11% in one day, its "unimaginable"(to quote Guy Amadi).
Well, those who listed to us would have made over 800% on their put calls.
We had it right, now lets go find the next one.
The Bull
We followed the money! Clearly there were people on Wall Street who didn't believe AIG when they said "We expect and have no fiscal problems stemming from the credit crisis", and surely these people laughed when AIG said "We will post a 1.96 billion dollar loss", and all of these people(which there are likely very few) went CHA CHING when AIG came clean with the truth. Why were the Put Options so cheap for AIG? Because this was a company that went up and down slowly, they don't drop 11% in one day, its "unimaginable"(to quote Guy Amadi).
Well, those who listed to us would have made over 800% on their put calls.
We had it right, now lets go find the next one.
The Bull
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
VOTE and Challenge
This blog needs to become more reader interactive and friendly.
So to Begin:
1. Should we use Limit ordres, and stop losses, ect in our portfolio. These are tools that are open to every single person regardless of capital. I think it could allow us to take more chances. Of course I would keep you posted on what the stop losses were so no funny business went down. VOTE, YES for Stop Losses, NO, thats cheating.
CHALLENGE:
1. I will challenge every reader out there to a simple bet where you lose nothing. If any of you can pick a stock by Sunday Feb 11th(11:59 PM) that outdoes my pick on the same day over the span of one and one half months(March 31st), I will send you a 100 dollar check in the mail.
Note: Each person is allowed to have only one stock pick, the stock must not trade on pink sheets or OBC, also, when you leave a comment, your IP address is left behind so it will be obvious if you are posting more than one pick. I hope everyone will play fair. Please leave your name with your comment.
Best of luck
So to Begin:
1. Should we use Limit ordres, and stop losses, ect in our portfolio. These are tools that are open to every single person regardless of capital. I think it could allow us to take more chances. Of course I would keep you posted on what the stop losses were so no funny business went down. VOTE, YES for Stop Losses, NO, thats cheating.
CHALLENGE:
1. I will challenge every reader out there to a simple bet where you lose nothing. If any of you can pick a stock by Sunday Feb 11th(11:59 PM) that outdoes my pick on the same day over the span of one and one half months(March 31st), I will send you a 100 dollar check in the mail.
Note: Each person is allowed to have only one stock pick, the stock must not trade on pink sheets or OBC, also, when you leave a comment, your IP address is left behind so it will be obvious if you are posting more than one pick. I hope everyone will play fair. Please leave your name with your comment.
Best of luck
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
A real post, new purchases
I apologize to all my faithful readers for my lack posting these past fews days and am sorry to inform all of you that i will be out of town from Thrusday until Sunday on business and might not get a chance to blog.
After this 370 down day there is some great buying chances, always buy on dips, sell on rips.
We sold:
TIVO: Gave us 3,911.34 dollars
IFC: Gave us 4124.84 dollars
ETFC: Gave us 3591 dollars.
Exercise Option on WCI: Gave us 1995 dollars.
Exercise Option on ETFC: Gave us 3000 dollars.
Total from sales: 16,622.18 dollars
Bank: 139.64 dollars
Total in Bank after sales: 16,761.82 dollars.
Purchasing:
Stocks:
1. RIO - 29.69 price, buy 4,000 dollar worth. 134.73 shares.
- Brazil is the place to be, RIO aint stopping. See Jim Cramers Mad Money Recap for more.
2. NYX - 71.03 price, buy 4,000 dollar worth. 56.31 shares.
- NYX beats earnings and they drop this far. Yes, the analysts did not like what they saw, but this stock has always been undervalued. Yes the NYSE has not been that strong with its profit/volume but the European sector of this company is vastly underrated. I think this stock comes back.
* I also like Disney after they crushed earnings and dropped only because the market was down so far. Good place to buy it.
Options:
SIRF: The stock bottomed out today, it will be back at 10 dollar by mid-march.
Therefore: SIRF, March 08 Call, strike price 10 dollars, 20 cents per share, 20 dollars per contract. 4000 dollars worth means 200 contracts.
AIG: Puts are adding up in this stock. Someone knows something. Let's follow the trend:
Therefore: AIG, March 08 PUT, strike price 45.00 dollars. 55 cents per share, 55 dollars per contract. 4015 dollars worth means 73 contracts worth.
Cost: Trades were free since 10 free(Have 5 left), Options cost 22(after selling and buying of them)
Bank: 724.82
I would write longer detailed explanations but I got a lot of stuff going on. I apologize, come late feb and March I will be much better.
After this 370 down day there is some great buying chances, always buy on dips, sell on rips.
We sold:
TIVO: Gave us 3,911.34 dollars
IFC: Gave us 4124.84 dollars
ETFC: Gave us 3591 dollars.
Exercise Option on WCI: Gave us 1995 dollars.
Exercise Option on ETFC: Gave us 3000 dollars.
Total from sales: 16,622.18 dollars
Bank: 139.64 dollars
Total in Bank after sales: 16,761.82 dollars.
Purchasing:
Stocks:
1. RIO - 29.69 price, buy 4,000 dollar worth. 134.73 shares.
- Brazil is the place to be, RIO aint stopping. See Jim Cramers Mad Money Recap for more.
2. NYX - 71.03 price, buy 4,000 dollar worth. 56.31 shares.
- NYX beats earnings and they drop this far. Yes, the analysts did not like what they saw, but this stock has always been undervalued. Yes the NYSE has not been that strong with its profit/volume but the European sector of this company is vastly underrated. I think this stock comes back.
* I also like Disney after they crushed earnings and dropped only because the market was down so far. Good place to buy it.
Options:
SIRF: The stock bottomed out today, it will be back at 10 dollar by mid-march.
Therefore: SIRF, March 08 Call, strike price 10 dollars, 20 cents per share, 20 dollars per contract. 4000 dollars worth means 200 contracts.
AIG: Puts are adding up in this stock. Someone knows something. Let's follow the trend:
Therefore: AIG, March 08 PUT, strike price 45.00 dollars. 55 cents per share, 55 dollars per contract. 4015 dollars worth means 73 contracts worth.
Cost: Trades were free since 10 free(Have 5 left), Options cost 22(after selling and buying of them)
Bank: 724.82
I would write longer detailed explanations but I got a lot of stuff going on. I apologize, come late feb and March I will be much better.
Monday, February 4, 2008
Transactions for Portfolio
Its late, so I will make this short:
Sell: TIVO, ETFC, IFC
Options: WCI, ETC both exercising.
I will explain more tomorrow.
Good Night All
Sell: TIVO, ETFC, IFC
Options: WCI, ETC both exercising.
I will explain more tomorrow.
Good Night All
Update for porfolio
Got to make this quick,
ETFC - 756 shares, bought at 3.97, current price 4.75(down 22 cents today). Current value = 3591 dollars.
IFC - 404 shares, bought at 7.42, current price 10.21(down 14% last two days). Current value = 4124.84 dollars.
TIVO - 438 shares, bought at 6.85, current price 8.93. Current Value = 3911.34 dollars.
CROX - 103 shares, bought at 29.12, current price 35.77. Current Value = 2999.36 dollars.
Options:
1. WCI - 7 contracts, 2.85 dollars per share, current price 2.85. Value = 1995 dollars.
Note: While stock has plummented, the option price does not always directly correspond, volume plays a large role as does the expiration date, if stock is "in money"(strike price is above current price) the closer the date gets the more the stock will rise, since we are getting closer to Feb 15th, even with the stock dropping, option price is staying the same.
2. ETFC - 200 contracts, 10 cents per share, current price .15. Value = 3000 dollars.
3. CMC(35 June 08) - 25 contracts, 80 cents per share, current price 1.60. Value = 4000 dollars.
4. CMC (40 June 08)- 70 contracts, 30 cents per share, current price .60. Value = 4200 dollars.
Stocks: 14,626.54 dollars
Options: 13,195 dollars
Bank: 139.64 dollars
Total: 27,961.18 dollars or up 459.22%
ETFC - 756 shares, bought at 3.97, current price 4.75(down 22 cents today). Current value = 3591 dollars.
IFC - 404 shares, bought at 7.42, current price 10.21(down 14% last two days). Current value = 4124.84 dollars.
TIVO - 438 shares, bought at 6.85, current price 8.93. Current Value = 3911.34 dollars.
CROX - 103 shares, bought at 29.12, current price 35.77. Current Value = 2999.36 dollars.
Options:
1. WCI - 7 contracts, 2.85 dollars per share, current price 2.85. Value = 1995 dollars.
Note: While stock has plummented, the option price does not always directly correspond, volume plays a large role as does the expiration date, if stock is "in money"(strike price is above current price) the closer the date gets the more the stock will rise, since we are getting closer to Feb 15th, even with the stock dropping, option price is staying the same.
2. ETFC - 200 contracts, 10 cents per share, current price .15. Value = 3000 dollars.
3. CMC(35 June 08) - 25 contracts, 80 cents per share, current price 1.60. Value = 4000 dollars.
4. CMC (40 June 08)- 70 contracts, 30 cents per share, current price .60. Value = 4200 dollars.
Stocks: 14,626.54 dollars
Options: 13,195 dollars
Bank: 139.64 dollars
Total: 27,961.18 dollars or up 459.22%
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